Antiviral treatment for the control of pandemic influenza: some logistical constraints.
Disease control programmes for an influenza pandemic will rely initially on the deployment of antiviral drugs such as Tamiflu, until a vaccine becomes available. However, such control programmes may be severely hampered by logistical constraints such as a finite stockpile of drugs and a limit on the...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Journal article |
| Language: | English |
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2008
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| _version_ | 1797096340167065600 |
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| author | Arinaminpathy, N Mclean, A |
| author_facet | Arinaminpathy, N Mclean, A |
| author_sort | Arinaminpathy, N |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | Disease control programmes for an influenza pandemic will rely initially on the deployment of antiviral drugs such as Tamiflu, until a vaccine becomes available. However, such control programmes may be severely hampered by logistical constraints such as a finite stockpile of drugs and a limit on the distribution rate. We study the effects of such constraints using a compartmental modelling approach. We find that the most aggressive possible antiviral programme minimizes the final epidemic size, even if this should lead to premature stockpile run-out. Moreover, if the basic reproductive number R(0) is not too high, such a policy can avoid run-out altogether. However, where run-out would occur, such benefits must be weighed against the possibility of a higher epidemic peak than if a more conservative policy were followed. Where there is a maximum number of treatment courses that can be dispensed per day, reflecting a manpower limit on antiviral distribution, our results suggest that such a constraint is unlikely to have a significant impact (i.e. increasing the final epidemic size by more than 10%), as long as drug courses sufficient to treat at least 6% of the population can be dispensed per day. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T04:40:25Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:d16ecb26-b55a-4c3b-8e5f-7b6858705dce |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T04:40:25Z |
| publishDate | 2008 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:d16ecb26-b55a-4c3b-8e5f-7b6858705dce2022-03-27T07:56:57ZAntiviral treatment for the control of pandemic influenza: some logistical constraints.Journal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:d16ecb26-b55a-4c3b-8e5f-7b6858705dceEnglishSymplectic Elements at Oxford2008Arinaminpathy, NMclean, ADisease control programmes for an influenza pandemic will rely initially on the deployment of antiviral drugs such as Tamiflu, until a vaccine becomes available. However, such control programmes may be severely hampered by logistical constraints such as a finite stockpile of drugs and a limit on the distribution rate. We study the effects of such constraints using a compartmental modelling approach. We find that the most aggressive possible antiviral programme minimizes the final epidemic size, even if this should lead to premature stockpile run-out. Moreover, if the basic reproductive number R(0) is not too high, such a policy can avoid run-out altogether. However, where run-out would occur, such benefits must be weighed against the possibility of a higher epidemic peak than if a more conservative policy were followed. Where there is a maximum number of treatment courses that can be dispensed per day, reflecting a manpower limit on antiviral distribution, our results suggest that such a constraint is unlikely to have a significant impact (i.e. increasing the final epidemic size by more than 10%), as long as drug courses sufficient to treat at least 6% of the population can be dispensed per day. |
| spellingShingle | Arinaminpathy, N Mclean, A Antiviral treatment for the control of pandemic influenza: some logistical constraints. |
| title | Antiviral treatment for the control of pandemic influenza: some logistical constraints. |
| title_full | Antiviral treatment for the control of pandemic influenza: some logistical constraints. |
| title_fullStr | Antiviral treatment for the control of pandemic influenza: some logistical constraints. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Antiviral treatment for the control of pandemic influenza: some logistical constraints. |
| title_short | Antiviral treatment for the control of pandemic influenza: some logistical constraints. |
| title_sort | antiviral treatment for the control of pandemic influenza some logistical constraints |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT arinaminpathyn antiviraltreatmentforthecontrolofpandemicinfluenzasomelogisticalconstraints AT mcleana antiviraltreatmentforthecontrolofpandemicinfluenzasomelogisticalconstraints |