The transferability and validity of a population-level simulation model for the economic evaluation of interventions in diabetes: the MICADO model
<strong>Aims</strong> Valid health economic models are essential to inform the adoption and reimbursement of therapies for diabetes mellitus. Often existing health economic models are applied in other countries and settings than those where they were developed. This practice requires ass...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Springer
2022
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| _version_ | 1797108134651625472 |
|---|---|
| author | Emamipour, S Pagano, E Di Cuonzo, D Konings, SRA van der Heijden, AA Elders, P Beulens, JWJ Leal, J Feenstra, TL |
| author_facet | Emamipour, S Pagano, E Di Cuonzo, D Konings, SRA van der Heijden, AA Elders, P Beulens, JWJ Leal, J Feenstra, TL |
| author_sort | Emamipour, S |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | <strong>Aims</strong>
Valid health economic models are essential to inform the adoption and reimbursement of therapies for diabetes mellitus. Often existing health economic models are applied in other countries and settings than those where they were developed. This practice requires assessing the transferability of a model developed from one setting to another. We evaluate the transferability of the MICADO model, developed for the Dutch 2007 setting, in two different settings using a range of adjustment steps. MICADO predicts micro- and macrovascular events at the population level.
<br>
<strong>Methods</strong>
MICADO simulation results were compared to observed events in an Italian 2000–2015 cohort (Casale Monferrato Survey [CMS]) and in a Dutch 2008–2019 (Hoorn Diabetes Care Center [DCS]) cohort after adjusting the demographic characteristics. Additional adjustments were performed to: (1) risk factors prevalence at baseline, (2) prevalence of complications, and (3) all-cause mortality risks by age and sex. Model validity was assessed by mean average percentage error (MAPE) of cumulative incidences over 10 years of follow-up, where lower values mean better accuracy.
<br>
<strong>Results</strong>
For mortality, MAPE was lower for CMS compared to DCS (0.38 vs. 0.70 following demographic adjustment) and adjustment step 3 improved it to 0.20 in CMS, whereas step 2 showed best results in DCS (0.65). MAPE for heart failure and stroke in DCS were 0.11 and 0.22, respectively, while for CMS was 0.42 and 0.41.
<br>
<strong>Conclusions</strong>
The transferability of the MICADO model varied by event and per cohort. Additional adjustments improved prediction of events for MICADO. To ensure a valid model in a new setting it is imperative to assess the impact of adjustments in terms of model accuracy, even when this involves the same country, but a new time period. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T07:23:28Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:d754f509-3abb-47b7-a704-5b1f219e4815 |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T07:23:28Z |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publisher | Springer |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:d754f509-3abb-47b7-a704-5b1f219e48152022-11-04T11:33:06ZThe transferability and validity of a population-level simulation model for the economic evaluation of interventions in diabetes: the MICADO modelJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:d754f509-3abb-47b7-a704-5b1f219e4815EnglishSymplectic ElementsSpringer2022Emamipour, SPagano, EDi Cuonzo, DKonings, SRAvan der Heijden, AAElders, PBeulens, JWJLeal, JFeenstra, TL<strong>Aims</strong> Valid health economic models are essential to inform the adoption and reimbursement of therapies for diabetes mellitus. Often existing health economic models are applied in other countries and settings than those where they were developed. This practice requires assessing the transferability of a model developed from one setting to another. We evaluate the transferability of the MICADO model, developed for the Dutch 2007 setting, in two different settings using a range of adjustment steps. MICADO predicts micro- and macrovascular events at the population level. <br> <strong>Methods</strong> MICADO simulation results were compared to observed events in an Italian 2000–2015 cohort (Casale Monferrato Survey [CMS]) and in a Dutch 2008–2019 (Hoorn Diabetes Care Center [DCS]) cohort after adjusting the demographic characteristics. Additional adjustments were performed to: (1) risk factors prevalence at baseline, (2) prevalence of complications, and (3) all-cause mortality risks by age and sex. Model validity was assessed by mean average percentage error (MAPE) of cumulative incidences over 10 years of follow-up, where lower values mean better accuracy. <br> <strong>Results</strong> For mortality, MAPE was lower for CMS compared to DCS (0.38 vs. 0.70 following demographic adjustment) and adjustment step 3 improved it to 0.20 in CMS, whereas step 2 showed best results in DCS (0.65). MAPE for heart failure and stroke in DCS were 0.11 and 0.22, respectively, while for CMS was 0.42 and 0.41. <br> <strong>Conclusions</strong> The transferability of the MICADO model varied by event and per cohort. Additional adjustments improved prediction of events for MICADO. To ensure a valid model in a new setting it is imperative to assess the impact of adjustments in terms of model accuracy, even when this involves the same country, but a new time period. |
| spellingShingle | Emamipour, S Pagano, E Di Cuonzo, D Konings, SRA van der Heijden, AA Elders, P Beulens, JWJ Leal, J Feenstra, TL The transferability and validity of a population-level simulation model for the economic evaluation of interventions in diabetes: the MICADO model |
| title | The transferability and validity of a population-level simulation model for the economic evaluation of interventions in diabetes: the MICADO model |
| title_full | The transferability and validity of a population-level simulation model for the economic evaluation of interventions in diabetes: the MICADO model |
| title_fullStr | The transferability and validity of a population-level simulation model for the economic evaluation of interventions in diabetes: the MICADO model |
| title_full_unstemmed | The transferability and validity of a population-level simulation model for the economic evaluation of interventions in diabetes: the MICADO model |
| title_short | The transferability and validity of a population-level simulation model for the economic evaluation of interventions in diabetes: the MICADO model |
| title_sort | transferability and validity of a population level simulation model for the economic evaluation of interventions in diabetes the micado model |
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