Integrated modelling of urban spatial development under uncertain climate futures: A case study in Hungary
To provide fundamental decision support information for climate risk assessment in Hungary, an urban spatial development model of land cover change and population age structure dynamics was developed and applied to local integrated scenarios of climate change and stakeholder-derived socio-economic c...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal article |
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Elsevier
2017
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| _version_ | 1797098964725530624 |
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| author | Li, S Juhász-Horváth, L Pedde, S Pintér, L Rounsevell, M Harrison, P |
| author_facet | Li, S Juhász-Horváth, L Pedde, S Pintér, L Rounsevell, M Harrison, P |
| author_sort | Li, S |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | To provide fundamental decision support information for climate risk assessment in Hungary, an urban spatial development model of land cover change and population age structure dynamics was developed and applied to local integrated scenarios of climate change and stakeholder-derived socio-economic change. The four integrated scenarios for Hungary produced contrasting projections for urban patterns to 2100, but peri-urbanisation around Budapest was estimated to occur under all scenarios, together with a decline in working age population in the centres of the capital and major towns. This suggests that future urban planning needs to take into consideration the potential for underutilised urban infrastructure in the centre of the capital and pressures for social service provisioning in its outskirt. The integrated scenarios and model developed can be used in future studies to test the effectiveness of inter-sectoral policy responses in adapting urban planning to multiple climate and socio-economic challenges. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T05:17:03Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:dd9192c1-e016-4810-90d0-5929bc21f81a |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T05:17:03Z |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:dd9192c1-e016-4810-90d0-5929bc21f81a2022-03-27T09:25:58ZIntegrated modelling of urban spatial development under uncertain climate futures: A case study in HungaryJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:dd9192c1-e016-4810-90d0-5929bc21f81aSymplectic Elements at OxfordElsevier2017Li, SJuhász-Horváth, LPedde, SPintér, LRounsevell, MHarrison, PTo provide fundamental decision support information for climate risk assessment in Hungary, an urban spatial development model of land cover change and population age structure dynamics was developed and applied to local integrated scenarios of climate change and stakeholder-derived socio-economic change. The four integrated scenarios for Hungary produced contrasting projections for urban patterns to 2100, but peri-urbanisation around Budapest was estimated to occur under all scenarios, together with a decline in working age population in the centres of the capital and major towns. This suggests that future urban planning needs to take into consideration the potential for underutilised urban infrastructure in the centre of the capital and pressures for social service provisioning in its outskirt. The integrated scenarios and model developed can be used in future studies to test the effectiveness of inter-sectoral policy responses in adapting urban planning to multiple climate and socio-economic challenges. |
| spellingShingle | Li, S Juhász-Horváth, L Pedde, S Pintér, L Rounsevell, M Harrison, P Integrated modelling of urban spatial development under uncertain climate futures: A case study in Hungary |
| title | Integrated modelling of urban spatial development under uncertain climate futures: A case study in Hungary |
| title_full | Integrated modelling of urban spatial development under uncertain climate futures: A case study in Hungary |
| title_fullStr | Integrated modelling of urban spatial development under uncertain climate futures: A case study in Hungary |
| title_full_unstemmed | Integrated modelling of urban spatial development under uncertain climate futures: A case study in Hungary |
| title_short | Integrated modelling of urban spatial development under uncertain climate futures: A case study in Hungary |
| title_sort | integrated modelling of urban spatial development under uncertain climate futures a case study in hungary |
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