The potential contribution of disruptive low-carbon innovations to 1.5 °C climate mitigation

This paper investigates the potential for consumer-facing innovations to contribute emission reductions for limiting warming to 1.5 °C. First, we show that global integrated assessment models which characterise transformation pathways consistent with 1.5 °C mitigation are limited in their ability to...

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Main Authors: Wilson, C, Pettifor, H, Cassar, E, Kerr, L, Wilson, M
Format: Journal article
Language:English
Published: Springer Nature 2018
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author Wilson, C
Pettifor, H
Cassar, E
Kerr, L
Wilson, M
author_facet Wilson, C
Pettifor, H
Cassar, E
Kerr, L
Wilson, M
author_sort Wilson, C
collection OXFORD
description This paper investigates the potential for consumer-facing innovations to contribute emission reductions for limiting warming to 1.5 °C. First, we show that global integrated assessment models which characterise transformation pathways consistent with 1.5 °C mitigation are limited in their ability to analyse the emergence of novelty in energy end-use. Second, we introduce concepts of disruptive innovation which can be usefully applied to the challenge of 1.5 °C mitigation. Disruptive low-carbon innovations offer novel value propositions to consumers and can transform markets for energy-related goods and services while reducing emissions. Third, we identify 99 potentially disruptive low-carbon innovations relating to mobility, food, buildings and cities, and energy supply and distribution. Examples at the fringes of current markets include car clubs, mobility-as-a-service, prefabricated high-efficiency retrofits, internet of things, and urban farming. Each of these offers an alternative to mainstream consumer practices. Fourth, we assess the potential emission reductions from subsets of these disruptive low-carbon innovations using two methods: a survey eliciting experts’ perceptions and a quantitative scaling-up of evidence from early-adopting niches to matched segments of the UK population. We conclude that disruptive low-carbon innovations which appeal to consumers can help efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C.
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spelling oxford-uuid:de5da2fa-4fa4-4d7e-ba4e-a438549f1ae02022-08-25T16:01:37ZThe potential contribution of disruptive low-carbon innovations to 1.5 °C climate mitigationJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:de5da2fa-4fa4-4d7e-ba4e-a438549f1ae0EnglishSymplectic ElementsSpringer Nature2018Wilson, CPettifor, HCassar, EKerr, LWilson, MThis paper investigates the potential for consumer-facing innovations to contribute emission reductions for limiting warming to 1.5 °C. First, we show that global integrated assessment models which characterise transformation pathways consistent with 1.5 °C mitigation are limited in their ability to analyse the emergence of novelty in energy end-use. Second, we introduce concepts of disruptive innovation which can be usefully applied to the challenge of 1.5 °C mitigation. Disruptive low-carbon innovations offer novel value propositions to consumers and can transform markets for energy-related goods and services while reducing emissions. Third, we identify 99 potentially disruptive low-carbon innovations relating to mobility, food, buildings and cities, and energy supply and distribution. Examples at the fringes of current markets include car clubs, mobility-as-a-service, prefabricated high-efficiency retrofits, internet of things, and urban farming. Each of these offers an alternative to mainstream consumer practices. Fourth, we assess the potential emission reductions from subsets of these disruptive low-carbon innovations using two methods: a survey eliciting experts’ perceptions and a quantitative scaling-up of evidence from early-adopting niches to matched segments of the UK population. We conclude that disruptive low-carbon innovations which appeal to consumers can help efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C.
spellingShingle Wilson, C
Pettifor, H
Cassar, E
Kerr, L
Wilson, M
The potential contribution of disruptive low-carbon innovations to 1.5 °C climate mitigation
title The potential contribution of disruptive low-carbon innovations to 1.5 °C climate mitigation
title_full The potential contribution of disruptive low-carbon innovations to 1.5 °C climate mitigation
title_fullStr The potential contribution of disruptive low-carbon innovations to 1.5 °C climate mitigation
title_full_unstemmed The potential contribution of disruptive low-carbon innovations to 1.5 °C climate mitigation
title_short The potential contribution of disruptive low-carbon innovations to 1.5 °C climate mitigation
title_sort potential contribution of disruptive low carbon innovations to 1 5 °c climate mitigation
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