Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond - a real-time event attribution revisited
On 4-6 December 2015, the storm ``Desmond'' caused very heavy rainfall in northern England and Scotland, which led to widespread flooding. A week after the event we provided an initial assessment of the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the likelihood of one-day precipitation ev...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Formato: | Journal article |
| Publicado em: |
IOP Publishing
2018
|
| _version_ | 1826300848134684672 |
|---|---|
| author | Otto, F van Oldenborgh, G van der Wiel, K Philip, S Kew, S Uhe, P Cullen, H |
| author_facet | Otto, F van Oldenborgh, G van der Wiel, K Philip, S Kew, S Uhe, P Cullen, H |
| author_sort | Otto, F |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | On 4-6 December 2015, the storm ``Desmond'' caused very heavy rainfall in northern England and Scotland, which led to widespread flooding. A week after the event we provided an initial assessment of the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the likelihood of one-day precipitation events averaged over an area encompassing northern England and southern Scotland using data and methods available immediately after the event occurred. The analysis was based on three independent methods of extreme event attribution: historical observed trends, coupled climate model simulations and a large ensemble of regional model simulations. All three methods agreed that the effect of climate change was positive, making precipitation events like this about 40% more likely, with a provisional 2.5-97.5% confidence interval of 5-80%. Here we revisit the assessment using more station data, an additional monthly event definition, a second global climate model and regional model simulations of winter 2015/16. The overall result of the analysis is similar to the real-time analysis with a best estimate of a 59% increase in event frequency, but a larger confidence interval that does include no change. It is important to highlight that the observational data in the additional monthly analysis does not only represent the rainfall associated with storm Desmond but also that of storms Eve and Frank occurring towards the end of the month. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T05:23:23Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:dfb306d4-b727-4884-89a5-f29887e9c6ff |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T05:23:23Z |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:dfb306d4-b727-4884-89a5-f29887e9c6ff2022-03-27T09:41:16ZClimate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond - a real-time event attribution revisitedJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:dfb306d4-b727-4884-89a5-f29887e9c6ffSymplectic Elements at OxfordIOP Publishing2018Otto, Fvan Oldenborgh, Gvan der Wiel, KPhilip, SKew, SUhe, PCullen, HOn 4-6 December 2015, the storm ``Desmond'' caused very heavy rainfall in northern England and Scotland, which led to widespread flooding. A week after the event we provided an initial assessment of the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the likelihood of one-day precipitation events averaged over an area encompassing northern England and southern Scotland using data and methods available immediately after the event occurred. The analysis was based on three independent methods of extreme event attribution: historical observed trends, coupled climate model simulations and a large ensemble of regional model simulations. All three methods agreed that the effect of climate change was positive, making precipitation events like this about 40% more likely, with a provisional 2.5-97.5% confidence interval of 5-80%. Here we revisit the assessment using more station data, an additional monthly event definition, a second global climate model and regional model simulations of winter 2015/16. The overall result of the analysis is similar to the real-time analysis with a best estimate of a 59% increase in event frequency, but a larger confidence interval that does include no change. It is important to highlight that the observational data in the additional monthly analysis does not only represent the rainfall associated with storm Desmond but also that of storms Eve and Frank occurring towards the end of the month. |
| spellingShingle | Otto, F van Oldenborgh, G van der Wiel, K Philip, S Kew, S Uhe, P Cullen, H Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond - a real-time event attribution revisited |
| title | Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond - a real-time event attribution revisited |
| title_full | Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond - a real-time event attribution revisited |
| title_fullStr | Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond - a real-time event attribution revisited |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond - a real-time event attribution revisited |
| title_short | Climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in Northern England/Southern Scotland like those of storm Desmond - a real-time event attribution revisited |
| title_sort | climate change increases the probability of heavy rains in northern england southern scotland like those of storm desmond a real time event attribution revisited |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ottof climatechangeincreasestheprobabilityofheavyrainsinnorthernenglandsouthernscotlandlikethoseofstormdesmondarealtimeeventattributionrevisited AT vanoldenborghg climatechangeincreasestheprobabilityofheavyrainsinnorthernenglandsouthernscotlandlikethoseofstormdesmondarealtimeeventattributionrevisited AT vanderwielk climatechangeincreasestheprobabilityofheavyrainsinnorthernenglandsouthernscotlandlikethoseofstormdesmondarealtimeeventattributionrevisited AT philips climatechangeincreasestheprobabilityofheavyrainsinnorthernenglandsouthernscotlandlikethoseofstormdesmondarealtimeeventattributionrevisited AT kews climatechangeincreasestheprobabilityofheavyrainsinnorthernenglandsouthernscotlandlikethoseofstormdesmondarealtimeeventattributionrevisited AT uhep climatechangeincreasestheprobabilityofheavyrainsinnorthernenglandsouthernscotlandlikethoseofstormdesmondarealtimeeventattributionrevisited AT cullenh climatechangeincreasestheprobabilityofheavyrainsinnorthernenglandsouthernscotlandlikethoseofstormdesmondarealtimeeventattributionrevisited |