Joint modelling of pre-randomisation event counts and multiple post-randomisation survival times with cure rates: application to data for early epilepsy and single seizures

In this paper, we consider the analysis of recurrent event data that examines the differences between two treatments. The outcomes that are considered in the analysis are the pre-randomisation event count and post-randomisation times to first and second events with associated cure fractions. We deve...

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Main Authors: Rogers, J, Hutton, J
Format: Journal article
Language:English
Published: Taylor and Francis (Routledge) 2012
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author Rogers, J
Hutton, J
author_facet Rogers, J
Hutton, J
author_sort Rogers, J
collection OXFORD
description In this paper, we consider the analysis of recurrent event data that examines the differences between two treatments. The outcomes that are considered in the analysis are the pre-randomisation event count and post-randomisation times to first and second events with associated cure fractions. We develop methods that allow pre-randomisation counts and two post-randomisation survival times to be jointly modelled under a Poisson process framework, assuming that outcomes are predicted by (unobserved) event rates. We apply these methods to data that examine the difference between immediate and deferred treatment policies in patients presenting with single seizures or early epilepsy. We find evidence to suggest that post-randomisation seizure rates change at randomisation and following a first seizure after randomisation. We also find that there are cure rates associated with the post-randomisation times to first and second seizures. The increase in power over standard survival techniques, offered by the joint models that we propose, resulted in more precise estimates of the treatment effect and the ability to detect interactions with covariate effects.
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spelling oxford-uuid:e02baf1a-f78c-4e10-91e1-21c1ebb2a3422022-03-27T09:44:53ZJoint modelling of pre-randomisation event counts and multiple post-randomisation survival times with cure rates: application to data for early epilepsy and single seizuresJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:e02baf1a-f78c-4e10-91e1-21c1ebb2a342EnglishSymplectic Elements at OxfordTaylor and Francis (Routledge)2012Rogers, JHutton, JIn this paper, we consider the analysis of recurrent event data that examines the differences between two treatments. The outcomes that are considered in the analysis are the pre-randomisation event count and post-randomisation times to first and second events with associated cure fractions. We develop methods that allow pre-randomisation counts and two post-randomisation survival times to be jointly modelled under a Poisson process framework, assuming that outcomes are predicted by (unobserved) event rates. We apply these methods to data that examine the difference between immediate and deferred treatment policies in patients presenting with single seizures or early epilepsy. We find evidence to suggest that post-randomisation seizure rates change at randomisation and following a first seizure after randomisation. We also find that there are cure rates associated with the post-randomisation times to first and second seizures. The increase in power over standard survival techniques, offered by the joint models that we propose, resulted in more precise estimates of the treatment effect and the ability to detect interactions with covariate effects.
spellingShingle Rogers, J
Hutton, J
Joint modelling of pre-randomisation event counts and multiple post-randomisation survival times with cure rates: application to data for early epilepsy and single seizures
title Joint modelling of pre-randomisation event counts and multiple post-randomisation survival times with cure rates: application to data for early epilepsy and single seizures
title_full Joint modelling of pre-randomisation event counts and multiple post-randomisation survival times with cure rates: application to data for early epilepsy and single seizures
title_fullStr Joint modelling of pre-randomisation event counts and multiple post-randomisation survival times with cure rates: application to data for early epilepsy and single seizures
title_full_unstemmed Joint modelling of pre-randomisation event counts and multiple post-randomisation survival times with cure rates: application to data for early epilepsy and single seizures
title_short Joint modelling of pre-randomisation event counts and multiple post-randomisation survival times with cure rates: application to data for early epilepsy and single seizures
title_sort joint modelling of pre randomisation event counts and multiple post randomisation survival times with cure rates application to data for early epilepsy and single seizures
work_keys_str_mv AT rogersj jointmodellingofprerandomisationeventcountsandmultiplepostrandomisationsurvivaltimeswithcureratesapplicationtodataforearlyepilepsyandsingleseizures
AT huttonj jointmodellingofprerandomisationeventcountsandmultiplepostrandomisationsurvivaltimeswithcureratesapplicationtodataforearlyepilepsyandsingleseizures