Superexponential long-term trends in information technology
Moore's Law has created a popular perception of exponential progress in information technology. But is the progress of IT really exponential? In this paper we examine long time series of data documenting progress in information technology gathered by [1]. We analyze six different historical tre...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Journal article |
| Language: | English |
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2011
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| _version_ | 1797099553077329920 |
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| author | Nagy, B Farmer, J Trancik, J Gonzales, J |
| author_facet | Nagy, B Farmer, J Trancik, J Gonzales, J |
| author_sort | Nagy, B |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | Moore's Law has created a popular perception of exponential progress in information technology. But is the progress of IT really exponential? In this paper we examine long time series of data documenting progress in information technology gathered by [1]. We analyze six different historical trends of progress for several technologies grouped into the following three functional tasks: information storage, information transportation (bandwidth), and information transformation (speed of computation). Five of the six datasets extend back to the nineteenth century. We perform statistical analyses and show that in all six cases one can reject the exponential hypothesis at statistically significant levels. In contrast, one cannot reject the hypothesis of superexponential growth with decreasing doubling times. This raises questions about whether past trends in the improvement of information technology are sustainable. © 2011. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T05:25:25Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:e0620874-7ae4-4c31-a216-8f126cab229c |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T05:25:25Z |
| publishDate | 2011 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:e0620874-7ae4-4c31-a216-8f126cab229c2022-03-27T09:46:51ZSuperexponential long-term trends in information technologyJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:e0620874-7ae4-4c31-a216-8f126cab229cEnglishSymplectic Elements at Oxford2011Nagy, BFarmer, JTrancik, JGonzales, JMoore's Law has created a popular perception of exponential progress in information technology. But is the progress of IT really exponential? In this paper we examine long time series of data documenting progress in information technology gathered by [1]. We analyze six different historical trends of progress for several technologies grouped into the following three functional tasks: information storage, information transportation (bandwidth), and information transformation (speed of computation). Five of the six datasets extend back to the nineteenth century. We perform statistical analyses and show that in all six cases one can reject the exponential hypothesis at statistically significant levels. In contrast, one cannot reject the hypothesis of superexponential growth with decreasing doubling times. This raises questions about whether past trends in the improvement of information technology are sustainable. © 2011. |
| spellingShingle | Nagy, B Farmer, J Trancik, J Gonzales, J Superexponential long-term trends in information technology |
| title | Superexponential long-term trends in information technology |
| title_full | Superexponential long-term trends in information technology |
| title_fullStr | Superexponential long-term trends in information technology |
| title_full_unstemmed | Superexponential long-term trends in information technology |
| title_short | Superexponential long-term trends in information technology |
| title_sort | superexponential long term trends in information technology |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT nagyb superexponentiallongtermtrendsininformationtechnology AT farmerj superexponentiallongtermtrendsininformationtechnology AT trancikj superexponentiallongtermtrendsininformationtechnology AT gonzalesj superexponentiallongtermtrendsininformationtechnology |