Extreme floods in Europe: going beyond observations using reforecast ensemble pooling

Extreme floods in Europe: going beyond observations using reforecast ensemble pooling

Assessing the rarity and magnitude of very extreme flood events occurring less than twice a century is challenging due to the lack of observations of such rare events. Here we develop a new approach, pooling reforecast ensemble members from the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS), to increase the...

Disgrifiad llawn

Manylion Llyfryddiaeth
Prif Awduron:	Brunner, MI, Slater, L
Fformat:	Journal article
Iaith:	English
Cyhoeddwyd:	Copernicus Publications 2022

Eitemau Tebyg

Extreme floods in Europe: going beyond observations using reforecast ensemble pooling
gan: M. I. Brunner, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2022-01-01)

Using ensemble reforecasts to generate flood thresholds for improved global flood forecasting
gan: Ervin Zsoter, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2020-12-01)

Postprocessing of Medium Range Hydrological Ensemble Forecasts Making Use of Reforecasts
gan: Joris Van den Bergh, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2016-05-01)

Daily ensemble river discharge reforecasts and real-time forecasts from the operational Global Flood Awareness System
gan: S. Harrigan, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2023-01-01)

Comparing TIGGE multimodel forecasts with reforecast-calibrated ECMWF ensemble forecasts
gan: Hagedorn, R, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2012)

Revisiting the synoptic-scale predictability of severe European winter storms using ECMWF ensemble reforecasts
gan: F. Pantillon, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2017-10-01)

Distinguishing Spread Among Ensemble Members Between Drought and Flood Indian Summer Monsoon Years in the Past 58 Years (1958–2015) Reforecasts
gan: Ravi P. Shukla, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2020-02-01)

Predictability of tropical cyclone track density in S2S reforecast
gan: Chi Lok Loi, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2025-01-01)

Stratospheric influence on the winter North Atlantic storm track in subseasonal reforecasts
gan: H. Afargan-Gerstman, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2024-02-01)

Hybrid Post-Processing on GEFSv12 Reforecast for Summer Maximum Temperature Ensemble Forecasts with an Extended-Range Time Scale over Taiwan
gan: Malasala Murali Nageswararao, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2023-10-01)

Forecasting large hail and lightning using additive logistic regression models and the ECMWF reforecasts
gan: F. Battaglioli, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2023-11-01)

Variability of ENSO forecast skill in 2-year global reforecasts over the 20th Century
gan: Weisheimer, A, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2022)

The moderate impact of the 2015 El Niño over East Africa and its representation in seasonal reforecasts
gan: Macleod, D, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2019)

Going beyond ensemble average angular cross-correlation analysis
gan: Espen Drath Bøjesen
Cyhoeddwyd: (2022-07-01)

The role of climate variability in extreme floods in Europe
gan: G Guimarães Nobre, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2017-01-01)

Contrasting El Niño-La Niña predictability and prediction skill in 2-year reforecasts of the 20th century
gan: Sharmila, S, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2022)

Extreme winds over Europe in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models
gan: S. D. Outten, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2013-05-01)

Regenerative medicine: going beyond transplantology
gan: M.I. Gumeniuk
Cyhoeddwyd: (2022-12-01)

Atmospheric conditions favouring extreme precipitation and flash floods in temperate regions of Europe
gan: J. Meyer, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2022-12-01)

The relative importance of different flood‐generating mechanisms across Europe
gan: Berghuijs, W, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2019)

Assessing the spatial spread–skill of ensemble flood maps with remote-sensing observations
gan: H. Hooker, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2023-08-01)

Going Beyond Standard Ocean Color Observations: Lidar and Polarimetry
gan: Cédric Jamet, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2019-05-01)

An extremeness threshold determines the regional response of floods to changes in rainfall extremes
gan: Manuela I. Brunner, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2021-08-01)

Climatological influence of land and atmospheric initial conditions on North America and Eurasia surface temperature and circulation in the past 57 years (1958–2014) reforecasts
gan: Ravi P Shukla
Cyhoeddwyd: (2020-01-01)

Assessment of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble extreme precipitation forecast skill over Europe
gan: P. Rivoire, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2023-08-01)

Observed extreme precipitation trends and scaling in Central Europe
gan: Joel Zeder, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2020-09-01)

Challenges in modeling and predicting floods and droughts: A review
gan: Brunner, M, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2021)

Go beyond Hubble and go deeper in the universe
gan: Haining Li
Cyhoeddwyd: (2022-09-01)

Brief communication: A first hydrological investigation of extreme August 2023 floods in Slovenia, Europe
gan: N. Bezak, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2023-12-01)

Beyond a fixed number: Investigating uncertainty in popular evaluation metrics of ensemble flood modeling using bootstrapping analysis
gan: Tao Huang, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2024-06-01)

Co-occurring wintertime flooding and extreme wind over Europe, from daily to seasonal timescales
gan: Bloomfield H.C., et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2023-03-01)

Quantifying the Geomorphic Effect of Floods Using Satellite Observations of River Mobility
gan: A. S. Leenman, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2023-08-01)

Quantifying the geomorphic effect of floods using satellite observations of river mobility
gan: Leenman, A, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2023)

Interpreting extreme climate impacts from large ensemble simulations—are they unseen or unrealistic?
gan: T Kelder, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2022-01-01)

Going beyond «The Standard Menu»?
gan: B. F. Martynov
Cyhoeddwyd: (2024-03-01)

Going beyond Top EFT
gan: André Lessa, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2024-04-01)

Going beyond lifestyle factors
gan: Milagros Ruiz
Cyhoeddwyd: (2021-06-01)

Combination of different types of ensembles for the adaptive simulation of probabilistic flood forecasts: hindcasts for the Mulde 2002 extreme event
gan: J. Dietrich, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2008-03-01)

Flow-dependent observation errors for greenhouse gas inversions in an ensemble Kalman smoother
gan: M. Steiner, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2024-11-01)

Observation-constrained projection of flood risks and socioeconomic exposure in China
gan: Kang, S, et al.
Cyhoeddwyd: (2023)