Essays on macro-labour and uncertainty
This dissertation consists of three self-contained chapters which discuss topics related to macro-labour and uncertainty. Chapter 1 examines the impact of cross-border migration on business cycle dynamics and focuses on the implications of brain-drain for origin countries. Through the lens of an ope...
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
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2021
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| _version_ | 1797101086434131968 |
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| author | Oikonomou, M |
| author2 | Ferrero, A |
| author_facet | Ferrero, A Oikonomou, M |
| author_sort | Oikonomou, M |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | This dissertation consists of three self-contained chapters which discuss topics related to macro-labour and uncertainty. Chapter 1 examines the impact of cross-border migration on business cycle dynamics and focuses on the implications of brain-drain for origin countries. Through the lens of an open-economy DSGE model that features endogenous migration flows, trade linkages, search frictions, and skill heterogeneity, I study the quantitative impact of cyclical migration in Greece during the European Debt Crisis. I find that rather than stabilising the Greek business cycle, migration led to a deeper and more protracted recession, primarily due to the negative effects it had on the skill composition of the domestic workforce and investment. Chapter 2 explores the role of labour market frictions and specifically the role of endogenous job destruction for the propagation of uncertainty shocks. To address this topic, I build a DSGE model with search and matching frictions, price rigidities and time-varying stochastic volatility, and I calibrate the model to US data. I find that endogenous job separations play an important amplification role for uncertainty shocks. I also find that the introduction of endogenous match separations can challenge the widely-held perception that uncertainty shocks behave like negative aggregate demand shocks, as the behaviour of inflation hinges on the specification of the Taylor rule. Finally, Chapter 3 analyses the impact of uncertainty shocks on firm entry, trade and labour markets through the lens of a DSGE model with endogenous producer entry. I find that contrary to models with a fixed mass of producers, precautionary savings propagate uncertainty shocks through two distinct mechanisms. The first one is the aggregate demand mechanism which is at play in models without endogenous firm entry. The second channel however, arises from the interplay of precautionary behaviour and endogenous firm entry. Precautionary savings from households lead to higher entry of relatively less productive non-trading firms, driving down aggregate productivity and creating inflationary pressures. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T05:46:56Z |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oxford-uuid:e7877817-ae10-4efd-906d-457531596e77 |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T05:46:56Z |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:e7877817-ae10-4efd-906d-457531596e772022-03-27T10:39:33ZEssays on macro-labour and uncertaintyThesishttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_db06uuid:e7877817-ae10-4efd-906d-457531596e77UncertaintyMacro-labourInternational MacroeconomicsEnglishHyrax Deposit2021Oikonomou, MFerrero, AZanetti, FThis dissertation consists of three self-contained chapters which discuss topics related to macro-labour and uncertainty. Chapter 1 examines the impact of cross-border migration on business cycle dynamics and focuses on the implications of brain-drain for origin countries. Through the lens of an open-economy DSGE model that features endogenous migration flows, trade linkages, search frictions, and skill heterogeneity, I study the quantitative impact of cyclical migration in Greece during the European Debt Crisis. I find that rather than stabilising the Greek business cycle, migration led to a deeper and more protracted recession, primarily due to the negative effects it had on the skill composition of the domestic workforce and investment. Chapter 2 explores the role of labour market frictions and specifically the role of endogenous job destruction for the propagation of uncertainty shocks. To address this topic, I build a DSGE model with search and matching frictions, price rigidities and time-varying stochastic volatility, and I calibrate the model to US data. I find that endogenous job separations play an important amplification role for uncertainty shocks. I also find that the introduction of endogenous match separations can challenge the widely-held perception that uncertainty shocks behave like negative aggregate demand shocks, as the behaviour of inflation hinges on the specification of the Taylor rule. Finally, Chapter 3 analyses the impact of uncertainty shocks on firm entry, trade and labour markets through the lens of a DSGE model with endogenous producer entry. I find that contrary to models with a fixed mass of producers, precautionary savings propagate uncertainty shocks through two distinct mechanisms. The first one is the aggregate demand mechanism which is at play in models without endogenous firm entry. The second channel however, arises from the interplay of precautionary behaviour and endogenous firm entry. Precautionary savings from households lead to higher entry of relatively less productive non-trading firms, driving down aggregate productivity and creating inflationary pressures. |
| spellingShingle | Uncertainty Macro-labour International Macroeconomics Oikonomou, M Essays on macro-labour and uncertainty |
| title | Essays on macro-labour and uncertainty |
| title_full | Essays on macro-labour and uncertainty |
| title_fullStr | Essays on macro-labour and uncertainty |
| title_full_unstemmed | Essays on macro-labour and uncertainty |
| title_short | Essays on macro-labour and uncertainty |
| title_sort | essays on macro labour and uncertainty |
| topic | Uncertainty Macro-labour International Macroeconomics |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT oikonomoum essaysonmacrolabouranduncertainty |