Increased infections, but not viral burden, with a new SARS-CoV-2 variant
<br><strong>Background </strong>A new variant of SARS-CoV-2, B.1.1.7/VOC202012/01, was identified in the UK in December-2020. Direct estimates of its potential to enhance transmission are limited. <br><strong> Methods </strong>Nose and throat swabs from 28-Septemb...
| প্রধান লেখক: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| অন্যান্য লেখক: | |
| বিন্যাস: | Journal article |
| ভাষা: | English |
| প্রকাশিত: |
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
2021
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| _version_ | 1826302922220109824 |
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| author | Walker, S Vihta, K-D Gethings, O Pritchard, E Jones, J House, T Bell, I Bell, J Newton, J Farrar, J Diamond, I Studley, R Rourke, E Hay, J Hopkins, S Crook, D Peto, T Matthews, P Eyre, D Stoesser, N Pouwels, K |
| author2 | COVID-19 Infection Survey team |
| author_facet | COVID-19 Infection Survey team Walker, S Vihta, K-D Gethings, O Pritchard, E Jones, J House, T Bell, I Bell, J Newton, J Farrar, J Diamond, I Studley, R Rourke, E Hay, J Hopkins, S Crook, D Peto, T Matthews, P Eyre, D Stoesser, N Pouwels, K |
| author_sort | Walker, S |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | <br><strong>Background </strong>A new variant of SARS-CoV-2, B.1.1.7/VOC202012/01, was identified in the UK in December-2020. Direct estimates of its potential to enhance transmission are limited.
<br><strong>
Methods </strong>Nose and throat swabs from 28-September-2020 to 2-January-2021 in the UK’s nationally representative surveillance study were tested by RT-PCR for three genes (N, S and ORF1ab). Those positive only on ORF1ab+N, S-gene target failures (SGTF), are compatible with B.1.1.7/VOC202012/01. We investigated cycle threshold (Ct) values (a proxy for viral load), percentage of positives, population positivity and growth rates in SGTF vs non-SGTF positives.
<br><strong>
Results </strong>15,166(0.98%) of 1,553,687 swabs were PCR-positive, 8,545(56%) with three genes detected and 3,531(23%) SGTF. SGTF comprised an increasing, and triple-gene positives a decreasing, percentage of infections from late-November in most UK regions/countries, e.g. from 15% to 38% to 81% over 1.5 months in London. SGTF Ct values correspondingly declined substantially to similar levels to triple-gene positives. Population-level SGTF positivity remained low (<0.25%) in all regions/countries until late-November, when marked increases with and without self-reported symptoms occurred in southern England (to 1.5-3%), despite stable rates of non-SGTF cases. SGTF positivity rates increased on average 6% more rapidly than rates of non-SGTF positives (95% CI 4-9%) supporting addition rather than replacement with B.1.1.7/VOC202012/01. Excess growth rates for SGTF vs non-SGTF positives were similar in those up to high school age (5% (1-8%)) and older individuals (6% (4-9%)).
<br><strong>
Conclusions </strong>Direct population-representative estimates show that the B.1.1.7/VOC202012/01 SARS-CoV-2 variant leads to higher infection rates, but does not seem particularly adapted to any age group. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T05:54:48Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:ea2a7497-85c8-4f45-86b9-cc06a24283a0 |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T05:54:48Z |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publisher | Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:ea2a7497-85c8-4f45-86b9-cc06a24283a02022-03-27T10:59:43ZIncreased infections, but not viral burden, with a new SARS-CoV-2 variantJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:ea2a7497-85c8-4f45-86b9-cc06a24283a0EnglishSymplectic ElementsCold Spring Harbor Laboratory 2021Walker, SVihta, K-DGethings, OPritchard, EJones, JHouse, TBell, IBell, JNewton, JFarrar, JDiamond, IStudley, RRourke, EHay, JHopkins, SCrook, DPeto, TMatthews, PEyre, DStoesser, NPouwels, KCOVID-19 Infection Survey team<br><strong>Background </strong>A new variant of SARS-CoV-2, B.1.1.7/VOC202012/01, was identified in the UK in December-2020. Direct estimates of its potential to enhance transmission are limited. <br><strong> Methods </strong>Nose and throat swabs from 28-September-2020 to 2-January-2021 in the UK’s nationally representative surveillance study were tested by RT-PCR for three genes (N, S and ORF1ab). Those positive only on ORF1ab+N, S-gene target failures (SGTF), are compatible with B.1.1.7/VOC202012/01. We investigated cycle threshold (Ct) values (a proxy for viral load), percentage of positives, population positivity and growth rates in SGTF vs non-SGTF positives. <br><strong> Results </strong>15,166(0.98%) of 1,553,687 swabs were PCR-positive, 8,545(56%) with three genes detected and 3,531(23%) SGTF. SGTF comprised an increasing, and triple-gene positives a decreasing, percentage of infections from late-November in most UK regions/countries, e.g. from 15% to 38% to 81% over 1.5 months in London. SGTF Ct values correspondingly declined substantially to similar levels to triple-gene positives. Population-level SGTF positivity remained low (<0.25%) in all regions/countries until late-November, when marked increases with and without self-reported symptoms occurred in southern England (to 1.5-3%), despite stable rates of non-SGTF cases. SGTF positivity rates increased on average 6% more rapidly than rates of non-SGTF positives (95% CI 4-9%) supporting addition rather than replacement with B.1.1.7/VOC202012/01. Excess growth rates for SGTF vs non-SGTF positives were similar in those up to high school age (5% (1-8%)) and older individuals (6% (4-9%)). <br><strong> Conclusions </strong>Direct population-representative estimates show that the B.1.1.7/VOC202012/01 SARS-CoV-2 variant leads to higher infection rates, but does not seem particularly adapted to any age group. |
| spellingShingle | Walker, S Vihta, K-D Gethings, O Pritchard, E Jones, J House, T Bell, I Bell, J Newton, J Farrar, J Diamond, I Studley, R Rourke, E Hay, J Hopkins, S Crook, D Peto, T Matthews, P Eyre, D Stoesser, N Pouwels, K Increased infections, but not viral burden, with a new SARS-CoV-2 variant |
| title | Increased infections, but not viral burden, with a new SARS-CoV-2 variant |
| title_full | Increased infections, but not viral burden, with a new SARS-CoV-2 variant |
| title_fullStr | Increased infections, but not viral burden, with a new SARS-CoV-2 variant |
| title_full_unstemmed | Increased infections, but not viral burden, with a new SARS-CoV-2 variant |
| title_short | Increased infections, but not viral burden, with a new SARS-CoV-2 variant |
| title_sort | increased infections but not viral burden with a new sars cov 2 variant |
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