Seasonal to annual ocean forecasting skill and the role of model and observational uncertainty

Seasonal to annual ocean forecasting skill and the role of model and observational uncertainty

Accurate forecasts of the ocean state and the estimation of forecast uncertainties are crucial when it comes to providing skilful seasonal predictions. In this study we analyse the predictive skill and reliability of the ocean component in a seasonal forecasting system. Furthermore, we assess the ef...

Бүрэн тодорхойлолт

Номзүйн дэлгэрэнгүй
Үндсэн зохиолчид:	Juricke, S, Macleod, D, Weisheimer, A, Zanna, L, Palmer, T
Формат:	Journal article
Хэвлэсэн:	Wiley 2018

Ижил төстэй зүйлс

Oceanic stochastic parametrizations in a seasonal forecast system
-н: Andrejczuk, M, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2016)

Addressing model uncertainty in seasonal and annual dynamical ensemble forecasts
-н: Doblas-Reyes, F, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2009)

Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles
-н: Weisheimer, A, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2011)

Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles
-н: Weisheimer, A, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2011)

Stochastic subgrid-scale ocean mixing: Impacts on low-frequency variability
-н: Juricke, S, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2017)

Assessing the robustness of multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere wintertime seasonal forecast skill
-н: O'Reilly, CH, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2020)

Uncertainty and scale interactions in ocean ensembles: from seasonal forecasts to multi-decadal climate predictions
-н: Zanna, L, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2018)

On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts.
-н: Weisheimer, A, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2014)

Variability in seasonal forecast skill of Northern Hemisphere winters over the 20th century
-н: O'Reilly, C, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2017)

ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions-Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs
-н: Weisheimer, A, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2009)

Seasonal forecasts of the 20th century
-н: Weisheimer, A, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2020)

Flow dependent ensemble spread in seasonal forecasts of the boreal winter extratropics
-н: MacLeod, D, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2018)

Decadal climate prediction with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations
-н: Doblas-Reyes, F, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2011)

Decadal climate prediction with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations
-н: Doblas-Reyes, F, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2011)

Atmospheric seasonal forecasts of the twentieth century: Multi-decadal variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their potential value for extreme event attribution
-н: Weisheimer, A, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2016)

Skill assessment of seasonal forecasts of ocean variables
-н: Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2024-05-01)

A new view of seasonal forecast skill: bounding boxes from the DEMETER ensemble forecasts
-н: Weisheimer, A, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2005)

The northern hemisphere circumglobal teleconnection in a seasonal forecast model and its relationship to European summer forecast skill
-н: Beverley, J, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2018)

Forecast Skill and Predictability of Observed Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures
-н: Zanna, L
Хэвлэсэн: (2012)

Representing model uncertainty in multi‐annual predictions
-н: Befort, DJ, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2021)

Beyond skill scores: exploring sub‐seasonal forecast value through a case‐study of French month‐ahead energy prediction
-н: Dorrington, J, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2020)

Seasonal forecast skill for extra‐tropical cyclones and windstorms
-н: Befort, DJ, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2018)

Calibrating climate change time-slice projections with estimates of seasonal forecast reliability
-н: Matsueda, M, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2016)

An intercomparison of skill and over/underconfidence of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in multi-model seasonal forecasts
-н: Baker, LH, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2018)

Seasonal and decadal forecasts of Atlantic Sea surface temperatures using a linear inverse model
-н: Huddart, B, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2016)

Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parametrizations: impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system.
-н: Weisheimer, A, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2014)

Can bias correction and statistical downscaling methods improve the skill of seasonal precipitation forecasts?
-н: Manzanas, R, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2017)

Assessing the Skills of a Seasonal Forecast of Chlorophyll in the Global Pelagic Oceans
-н: Cecile S. Rousseaux, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2021-03-01)

Impact of the ocean in-situ observations on the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system
-н: Balmaseda, MA, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2024)

Impact of ocean in-situ observations on ECMWF sub-seasonal forecasts
-н: Balan-Sarojini, B, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2024)

Impact of the ocean in-situ observations on the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system
-н: Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2024-09-01)

Impact of ocean in-situ observations on ECMWF sub-seasonal forecasts
-н: Beena Balan-Sarojini, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2024-07-01)

Forecast skill of the Indian monsoon and its onset in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5)
-н: Chevuturi, A, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2021)

Drivers of uncertainty in simulated ocean circulation and heat uptake
-н: Huber, M, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2017)

Understanding the intermittency of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern seasonal forecast skill in the Copernicus C3S multi-model ensemble
-н: Baker, L, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2024)

Toward seamless prediction: Calibration of climate change projections using seasonal forecasts
-н: Palmer, T, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2008)

Ocean Initialization for Seasonal Forecasts
-н: Magdalena A. Balmaseda, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2009-09-01)

Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land surface
-н: MacLeod, D, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2015)

Toward Seamless Prediction: Calibration of Climate Change Projections Using Seasonal Forecasts Reply
-н: Palmer, T, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2009)

Understanding the Intermittency of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Copernicus C3S Multi‐Model Ensemble
-н: L. H. Baker, зэрэг
Хэвлэсэн: (2024-08-01)