Seasonal to annual ocean forecasting skill and the role of model and observational uncertainty

Seasonal to annual ocean forecasting skill and the role of model and observational uncertainty

Accurate forecasts of the ocean state and the estimation of forecast uncertainties are crucial when it comes to providing skilful seasonal predictions. In this study we analyse the predictive skill and reliability of the ocean component in a seasonal forecasting system. Furthermore, we assess the ef...

Полное описание

Библиографические подробности
Главные авторы:	Juricke, S, Macleod, D, Weisheimer, A, Zanna, L, Palmer, T
Формат:	Journal article
Опубликовано:	Wiley 2018

Схожие документы

Oceanic stochastic parametrizations in a seasonal forecast system
по: Andrejczuk, M, и др.
Опубликовано: (2016)

Addressing model uncertainty in seasonal and annual dynamical ensemble forecasts
по: Doblas-Reyes, F, и др.
Опубликовано: (2009)

Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles
по: Weisheimer, A, и др.
Опубликовано: (2011)

Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles
по: Weisheimer, A, и др.
Опубликовано: (2011)

Stochastic subgrid-scale ocean mixing: Impacts on low-frequency variability
по: Juricke, S, и др.
Опубликовано: (2017)

Assessing the robustness of multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere wintertime seasonal forecast skill
по: O'Reilly, CH, и др.
Опубликовано: (2020)

Uncertainty and scale interactions in ocean ensembles: from seasonal forecasts to multi-decadal climate predictions
по: Zanna, L, и др.
Опубликовано: (2018)

On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts.
по: Weisheimer, A, и др.
Опубликовано: (2014)

Variability in seasonal forecast skill of Northern Hemisphere winters over the 20th century
по: O'Reilly, C, и др.
Опубликовано: (2017)

ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions-Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs
по: Weisheimer, A, и др.
Опубликовано: (2009)

Seasonal forecasts of the 20th century
по: Weisheimer, A, и др.
Опубликовано: (2020)

Flow dependent ensemble spread in seasonal forecasts of the boreal winter extratropics
по: MacLeod, D, и др.
Опубликовано: (2018)

Decadal climate prediction with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations
по: Doblas-Reyes, F, и др.
Опубликовано: (2011)

Decadal climate prediction with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations
по: Doblas-Reyes, F, и др.
Опубликовано: (2011)

Atmospheric seasonal forecasts of the twentieth century: Multi-decadal variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their potential value for extreme event attribution
по: Weisheimer, A, и др.
Опубликовано: (2016)

Skill assessment of seasonal forecasts of ocean variables
по: Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda, и др.
Опубликовано: (2024-05-01)

A new view of seasonal forecast skill: bounding boxes from the DEMETER ensemble forecasts
по: Weisheimer, A, и др.
Опубликовано: (2005)

The northern hemisphere circumglobal teleconnection in a seasonal forecast model and its relationship to European summer forecast skill
по: Beverley, J, и др.
Опубликовано: (2018)

Forecast Skill and Predictability of Observed Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures
по: Zanna, L
Опубликовано: (2012)

Representing model uncertainty in multi‐annual predictions
по: Befort, DJ, и др.
Опубликовано: (2021)

Beyond skill scores: exploring sub‐seasonal forecast value through a case‐study of French month‐ahead energy prediction
по: Dorrington, J, и др.
Опубликовано: (2020)

Seasonal forecast skill for extra‐tropical cyclones and windstorms
по: Befort, DJ, и др.
Опубликовано: (2018)

Calibrating climate change time-slice projections with estimates of seasonal forecast reliability
по: Matsueda, M, и др.
Опубликовано: (2016)

An intercomparison of skill and over/underconfidence of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in multi-model seasonal forecasts
по: Baker, LH, и др.
Опубликовано: (2018)

Seasonal and decadal forecasts of Atlantic Sea surface temperatures using a linear inverse model
по: Huddart, B, и др.
Опубликовано: (2016)

Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parametrizations: impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system.
по: Weisheimer, A, и др.
Опубликовано: (2014)

Can bias correction and statistical downscaling methods improve the skill of seasonal precipitation forecasts?
по: Manzanas, R, и др.
Опубликовано: (2017)

Assessing the Skills of a Seasonal Forecast of Chlorophyll in the Global Pelagic Oceans
по: Cecile S. Rousseaux, и др.
Опубликовано: (2021-03-01)

Impact of the ocean in-situ observations on the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system
по: Balmaseda, MA, и др.
Опубликовано: (2024)

Impact of ocean in-situ observations on ECMWF sub-seasonal forecasts
по: Balan-Sarojini, B, и др.
Опубликовано: (2024)

Impact of the ocean in-situ observations on the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system
по: Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda, и др.
Опубликовано: (2024-09-01)

Impact of ocean in-situ observations on ECMWF sub-seasonal forecasts
по: Beena Balan-Sarojini, и др.
Опубликовано: (2024-07-01)

Forecast skill of the Indian monsoon and its onset in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5)
по: Chevuturi, A, и др.
Опубликовано: (2021)

Drivers of uncertainty in simulated ocean circulation and heat uptake
по: Huber, M, и др.
Опубликовано: (2017)

Understanding the intermittency of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern seasonal forecast skill in the Copernicus C3S multi-model ensemble
по: Baker, L, и др.
Опубликовано: (2024)

Toward seamless prediction: Calibration of climate change projections using seasonal forecasts
по: Palmer, T, и др.
Опубликовано: (2008)

Ocean Initialization for Seasonal Forecasts
по: Magdalena A. Balmaseda, и др.
Опубликовано: (2009-09-01)

Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land surface
по: MacLeod, D, и др.
Опубликовано: (2015)

Toward Seamless Prediction: Calibration of Climate Change Projections Using Seasonal Forecasts Reply
по: Palmer, T, и др.
Опубликовано: (2009)

Understanding the Intermittency of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Copernicus C3S Multi‐Model Ensemble
по: L. H. Baker, и др.
Опубликовано: (2024-08-01)