| Summary: | <p>This dissertation develops a new speculative politics framework to explain the major shifts and enduring consistencies in U.S. economic policy toward China from 1989 to 2019. Building on behavioral economics, the speculative politics framework posits that just as investors face uncertainty about which stocks will yield the greatest returns, it is far from clear which policies will best promote one’s political interests, especially in the context of complex economics and politics, both foreign and domestic. Thus, causal stories help translate interests into policy preferences under uncertainty, helping actors diagnose problems and speculate about the effects of policy solutions.</p>
<p>Moreover, like financial markets, the market for causal stories and the policies they support suffers from systemic biases like the availability heuristic and belief inertia. These biases can lead to market failures, such as overconfidence in certain stories and policies, opportunities for foreign actors to manipulate policy debates, and the potential for speculative bubbles. During debates over China’s Most Favored Nation (MFN) status and later during China’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO), Chinese officials and pro-engagement U.S. actors sought to bolster the narrative that U.S. economic engagement with China would strengthen the cause of reform in China and promote international stability. However, mounting dissonance due to unmet promises will eventually pop a bubble, producing a backlash in perceptions and policies, as can be seen today in the combative shift in the U.S. approach to China and talk of a “reckoning” within the U.S. China-watching community.</p>
<p>This dissertation utilizes archives, interviews, and statistical analysis of Congressional voting and focuses on key policy issues across two main eras: China’s MFN status and WTO accession during the George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton presidencies, and U.S. bilateral and plurilateral trade negotiations and escalating trade enforcement actions during the George H.W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump presidencies. Thus, the dissertation makes important empirical and theoretical contributions, shedding light on the interplay between perceptions, power, and policies in U.S.-China economic relations.</p>
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