Combining models to generate a consensus effective reproduction number R for the COVID-19 epidemic status in England

<p>The effective reproduction number <i>R</i> was widely accepted as a key indicator during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the UK, the <i>R</i> value published on the UK Government Dashboard has been generated as a combined value from an ensemble of epide...

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Bibliografische gegevens
Hoofdauteurs: Manley, H, Park, J, Bevan, L, Sanchez-Marroquin, A, Danelian, G, Bayley, T, Bowman, V, Maishman, T, Finnie, T, Charlett, A, Watkins, NA, Hutchinson, J, Medley, G, Riley, S, Nowcasts Model Contributing Group, Panovska-Griffiths, J
Formaat: Journal article
Taal:English
Gepubliceerd in: Cambridge University Press 2024
Omschrijving
Samenvatting:<p>The effective reproduction number <i>R</i> was widely accepted as a key indicator during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the UK, the <i>R</i> value published on the UK Government Dashboard has been generated as a combined value from an ensemble of epidemiological models via a collaborative initiative between academia and government. In this paper, we outline this collaborative modelling approach and illustrate how, by using an established combination method, a combined <i>R</i> estimate can be generated from an ensemble of epidemiological models. We analyse the <i>R</i> values calculated for the period between April 2021 and December 2021, to show that this <i>R</i> is robust to different model weighting methods and ensemble sizes and that using heterogeneous data sources for validation increases its robustness and reduces the biases and limitations associated with a single source of data. We discuss how <i>R</i> can be generated from different data sources and show that it is a good summary indicator of the current dynamics in an epidemic.</p>