How (in)accurate are demand forecasts in public works projects? The case of transportation.

How (in)accurate are demand forecasts in public works projects? The case of transportation.

his article presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth U.S.$59 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance t...

書目詳細資料
Main Authors:	Flyvbjerg, B, Holm, M, Buhl, S
格式:	Journal article
出版:	2005

相似書籍

How Common and How Large are Cost Overruns in Transport Infrastructure Projects?
由: Flyvbjerg, B, et al.
出版: (2003)

Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie?
由: Flyvbjerg, B, et al.
出版: (2002)

What causes cost overrun in transport infrastructure projects
由: Flyvbjerg, B, et al.
出版: (2004)

Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts
由: Flyvbjerg, B, et al.
出版: (2006)

Public Planning of Mega-Projects: Overestimation of Demand and Underestimation of Costs
由: Flyvbjerg, B
出版: (2008)

Measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: methodological considerations regarding ramp up and sampling
由: Flyvbjerg, B
出版: (2005)

Eliminating Bias in Early Project Development through Reference Class Forecasting and Good Governance
由: Flyvbjerg, B
出版: (2006)

Do road planners produce more 'honest numbers' than rail planners? An analysis of accuracy in road-traffic forecasts in cities versus peripheral regions.
由: Naess, P, et al.
出版: (2006)

AI in action: How the Hong Kong Development Bureau built the PSS, an early-warning-sign system for public works projects
由: Flyvbjerg, B, et al.
出版: (2022)

How Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Early Project Development Undermine Implementation
由: Flyvbjerg, B
出版: (2006)

Large Transport Infrastructure Projects: Improving Institutions and Decision Making
由: Flyvbjerg, B, et al.
出版: (2010)

Double Whammy – How ICT Projects are Fooled by Randomness and Screwed by Political Intent
由: Budzier, A, et al.
出版: (2011)

Artificial Intelligence based accurately load forecasting system to forecast short and medium-term load demands
由: Faisal Mehmood Butt, et al.
出版: (2021-04-01)

Cost Overruns and Demand Shortfalls in Urban Rail and Other Infrastructure
由: Flyvbjerg, B
出版: (2007)

Forecasting the demand for railway freight transportation in Kazakhstan: A case study
由: Madiyar Sultanbek, et al.
出版: (2024-01-01)

On regression approach to forecasting passenger demand in railway transport
由: G. L. Venediktov, et al.
出版: (2021-04-01)

Editorial - Large Transport Infrastructure Projects: Improving Institutions and Decision Making
由: Bert van Wee, et al.
出版: (2010-03-01)

THE EXISTING APPROACHES AND METHODS OF FORECASTING OF DEMAND FOR CONTAINER TRANSPORTATIONS
由: A. Perminova
出版: (2016-01-01)

An empirical study of air transport demand forecast in Nigeria
由: Obioma Reuben Nwaogbe, et al.
出版: (2023-05-01)

THE EXISTING APPROACHES AND METHODS OF FORECASTING OF DEMAND FOR CONTAINER TRANSPORTATIONS
由: A. Perminova
出版: (2019-02-01)

Valuing the Risks Created by Road Transport Demand Forecasting
由: Kim, Kang soo, et al.
出版: (2013-12-01)

Misrepresentation Drives Projects
由: Flyvbjerg, B
出版: (2004)

Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning: Reference Class Forecasting in Practice
由: Flyvbjerg, B
出版: (2008)

Problems of forecasting demand for working force in the labormarket in Kazakhstan
由: Jumambayev S.К
出版: (2019-03-01)

Optimism and Misrepresentation in Early Project Development
由: Flyvbjerg, B
出版: (2009)

Forecasting Internet Demand Using Public Data: A Case Study in Brazil
由: Matheus Pereira Liborio, et al.
出版: (2018-01-01)

Improving the consumer demand forecast to generate more accurate suggested orders at the store-item level
由: Bankston, Susan D
出版: (2008)

A Study in selecting the accurate method to forecast rooms demand in Natour Garuda Hotel Yogyakarta
由: , RAHMAN, Fathony, et al.
出版: (2000)

Evaluation of forecasting techniques for short-term demand of air transportation
由: Wickham, Richard Robert
出版: (2005)

Evaluation of forecasting techniques for short-term demand of air transportation
由: Wickham, Richard Robert
出版: (2012)

An application of advanced statistical techniques to forecast the demand for air transportation
由: Mathaisel, Dennis F. X., et al.
出版: (2012)

Demand Forecast of Petroleum Product Consumption in the Chinese Transportation Industry
由: Shouyang Wang, et al.
出版: (2012-03-01)

Forecasting Demand on Mega Infrastructure Projects: Increasing Financial Feasibility
由: Albert Eddy Husin, et al.
出版: (2015-01-01)

Accurate business forecasting
出版: (1991)

Public transport demand estimation by frequency adjustments
由: Victoria M. Orlando, et al.
出版: (2023-05-01)

Lock-in and its influence on the project performance of large-scale transportation infrastructure projects: investigating the way in which lock-in can emerge and affect cost overruns
由: Cantarelli, C, et al.
出版: (2010)

FLEXIBLE PUBLIC TRANSPORT SERVICE – SOLUTION FOR LOW PUBLIC TRANSPORT DEMAND AREAS
由: Marián Gogola
出版: (2006-12-01)

From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risks Right
由: Flyvbjerg, B
出版: (2006)

Policy and Planning for Large-Infrastructure Projects: Problems, Causes, Cures
由: Flyvbjerg, B
出版: (2007)

Public Transport Demand Elasticities in Developing Agglomerations: The Case of Tunisian Regions
由: Makhlouf Lassaad
出版: (2025-03-01)