ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions-Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs
A new 46-year hindcast dataset for seasonal-to-annual ensemble predictions has been created using a multi-model ensemble of 5 state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation models. The multi-model outperforms any of the single-models in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs because of reduced RMS...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Journal article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2009
|
| _version_ | 1797104367717842944 |
|---|---|
| author | Weisheimer, A Doblas-Reyes, F Palmer, T Alessandri, A Arribas, A Deque, M Keenlyside, N MacVean, M Navarra, A Rogel, P |
| author_facet | Weisheimer, A Doblas-Reyes, F Palmer, T Alessandri, A Arribas, A Deque, M Keenlyside, N MacVean, M Navarra, A Rogel, P |
| author_sort | Weisheimer, A |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | A new 46-year hindcast dataset for seasonal-to-annual ensemble predictions has been created using a multi-model ensemble of 5 state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation models. The multi-model outperforms any of the single-models in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs because of reduced RMS errors and enhanced ensemble dispersion at all lead-times. Systematic errors are considerably reduced over the previous generation (DEMETER). Probabilistic skill scores show higher skill for the new multi-model ensemble than for DEMETER in the 4-6 month forecast range. However, substantially improved models would be required to achieve strongly statistical significant skill increases. The combination of ENSEMBLES and DEMETER into a grand multi-model ensemble does not improve the forecast skill further. Annual-range hindcasts show anomaly correlation skill of ∼0.5 up to 14 months ahead. A wide range of output from the multi-model simulations is becoming publicly available and the international community is invited to explore the full scientific potential of these data. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T06:32:50Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:f69a70d0-c4ab-4fa9-9fa3-2ee3a3f22e62 |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T06:32:50Z |
| publishDate | 2009 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:f69a70d0-c4ab-4fa9-9fa3-2ee3a3f22e622022-03-27T12:36:15ZENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions-Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTsJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:f69a70d0-c4ab-4fa9-9fa3-2ee3a3f22e62EnglishSymplectic Elements at Oxford2009Weisheimer, ADoblas-Reyes, FPalmer, TAlessandri, AArribas, ADeque, MKeenlyside, NMacVean, MNavarra, ARogel, PA new 46-year hindcast dataset for seasonal-to-annual ensemble predictions has been created using a multi-model ensemble of 5 state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation models. The multi-model outperforms any of the single-models in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs because of reduced RMS errors and enhanced ensemble dispersion at all lead-times. Systematic errors are considerably reduced over the previous generation (DEMETER). Probabilistic skill scores show higher skill for the new multi-model ensemble than for DEMETER in the 4-6 month forecast range. However, substantially improved models would be required to achieve strongly statistical significant skill increases. The combination of ENSEMBLES and DEMETER into a grand multi-model ensemble does not improve the forecast skill further. Annual-range hindcasts show anomaly correlation skill of ∼0.5 up to 14 months ahead. A wide range of output from the multi-model simulations is becoming publicly available and the international community is invited to explore the full scientific potential of these data. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union. |
| spellingShingle | Weisheimer, A Doblas-Reyes, F Palmer, T Alessandri, A Arribas, A Deque, M Keenlyside, N MacVean, M Navarra, A Rogel, P ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions-Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs |
| title | ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions-Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs |
| title_full | ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions-Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs |
| title_fullStr | ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions-Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs |
| title_full_unstemmed | ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions-Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs |
| title_short | ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions-Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs |
| title_sort | ensembles a new multi model ensemble for seasonal to annual predictions skill and progress beyond demeter in forecasting tropical pacific ssts |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT weisheimera ensemblesanewmultimodelensembleforseasonaltoannualpredictionsskillandprogressbeyonddemeterinforecastingtropicalpacificssts AT doblasreyesf ensemblesanewmultimodelensembleforseasonaltoannualpredictionsskillandprogressbeyonddemeterinforecastingtropicalpacificssts AT palmert ensemblesanewmultimodelensembleforseasonaltoannualpredictionsskillandprogressbeyonddemeterinforecastingtropicalpacificssts AT alessandria ensemblesanewmultimodelensembleforseasonaltoannualpredictionsskillandprogressbeyonddemeterinforecastingtropicalpacificssts AT arribasa ensemblesanewmultimodelensembleforseasonaltoannualpredictionsskillandprogressbeyonddemeterinforecastingtropicalpacificssts AT dequem ensemblesanewmultimodelensembleforseasonaltoannualpredictionsskillandprogressbeyonddemeterinforecastingtropicalpacificssts AT keenlysiden ensemblesanewmultimodelensembleforseasonaltoannualpredictionsskillandprogressbeyonddemeterinforecastingtropicalpacificssts AT macveanm ensemblesanewmultimodelensembleforseasonaltoannualpredictionsskillandprogressbeyonddemeterinforecastingtropicalpacificssts AT navarraa ensemblesanewmultimodelensembleforseasonaltoannualpredictionsskillandprogressbeyonddemeterinforecastingtropicalpacificssts AT rogelp ensemblesanewmultimodelensembleforseasonaltoannualpredictionsskillandprogressbeyonddemeterinforecastingtropicalpacificssts |