Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard

Global warming is expected to drive increasing extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along the world’s coastlines. In this work we present probabilistic projections of ESLs for the present century taking into consideration changes in mean sea level, tides, wind-waves, and storm surges. Between th...

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Hlavní autoři: Vousdoukas, MI, Mentaschi, L, Voukouvalas, E, Verlaan, M, Jevrejeva, S, Jackson, LP, Feyen, L
Médium: Journal article
Vydáno: Nature Publishing Group 2018
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author Vousdoukas, MI
Mentaschi, L
Voukouvalas, E
Verlaan, M
Jevrejeva, S
Jackson, LP
Feyen, L
author_facet Vousdoukas, MI
Mentaschi, L
Voukouvalas, E
Verlaan, M
Jevrejeva, S
Jackson, LP
Feyen, L
author_sort Vousdoukas, MI
collection OXFORD
description Global warming is expected to drive increasing extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along the world’s coastlines. In this work we present probabilistic projections of ESLs for the present century taking into consideration changes in mean sea level, tides, wind-waves, and storm surges. Between the year 2000 and 2100 we project a very likely increase of the global average 100-year ESL of 34–76 cm under a moderate-emission-mitigation-policy scenario and of 58–172 cm under a business as usual scenario. Rising ESLs are mostly driven by thermal expansion, followed by contributions from ice mass-loss from glaciers, and icesheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Under these scenarios ESL rise would render a large part of the tropics exposed annually to the present-day 100-year event from 2050. By the end of this century this applies to most coastlines around the world, implying unprecedented flood risk levels unless timely adaptation measures are taken.
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spelling oxford-uuid:f782848e-0649-4de3-b22f-1e4eb24837dd2022-03-27T12:43:14ZGlobal probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazardJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:f782848e-0649-4de3-b22f-1e4eb24837ddSymplectic Elements at OxfordNature Publishing Group2018Vousdoukas, MIMentaschi, LVoukouvalas, EVerlaan, MJevrejeva, SJackson, LPFeyen, LGlobal warming is expected to drive increasing extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along the world’s coastlines. In this work we present probabilistic projections of ESLs for the present century taking into consideration changes in mean sea level, tides, wind-waves, and storm surges. Between the year 2000 and 2100 we project a very likely increase of the global average 100-year ESL of 34–76 cm under a moderate-emission-mitigation-policy scenario and of 58–172 cm under a business as usual scenario. Rising ESLs are mostly driven by thermal expansion, followed by contributions from ice mass-loss from glaciers, and icesheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Under these scenarios ESL rise would render a large part of the tropics exposed annually to the present-day 100-year event from 2050. By the end of this century this applies to most coastlines around the world, implying unprecedented flood risk levels unless timely adaptation measures are taken.
spellingShingle Vousdoukas, MI
Mentaschi, L
Voukouvalas, E
Verlaan, M
Jevrejeva, S
Jackson, LP
Feyen, L
Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard
title Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard
title_full Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard
title_fullStr Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard
title_full_unstemmed Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard
title_short Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard
title_sort global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard
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