Forecasting with equilibrium-correction models during structural breaks

When location shifts occur, cointegration-based equilibrium-correction models (EqCMs) face forecasting problems. We consider alleviating such forecast failure by updating, intercept corrections, differencing, and estimating the future progress of an 'internal' break. Updating leads to a lo...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Castle, J, Fawcett, N, Hendry, D
Format: Journal article
Published: Elsevier 2010