Storm track shifts under climate change: toward a mechanistic understanding using baroclinic mean available potential energy
Zonal-mean storm track shifts in response to perturbations in climate occur even in ide- alized simulations of dry atmospheres with axisymmetric forcing. Nonetheless, a generally accepted theory of the mechanisms controlling the storm track shifts is still lacking. Here mean available potential e...
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| Format: | Journal article |
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American Meteorological Society
2016
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| _version_ | 1797105072803414016 |
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| author | Mbengue, C Schneider, T |
| author_facet | Mbengue, C Schneider, T |
| author_sort | Mbengue, C |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | Zonal-mean storm track shifts in response to perturbations in climate occur even in ide- alized simulations of dry atmospheres with axisymmetric forcing. Nonetheless, a generally accepted theory of the mechanisms controlling the storm track shifts is still lacking. Here mean available potential energy (MAPE), a general measure of baroclinicity that is propor- tional to the square of the Eady growth rate, is used to understand storm track shifts. It is demonstrated that, in dry atmospheres, the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in a storm track is linearly related to the mean available potential energy, relative to a local reference state, and that maxima of the two are generally collocated in latitude. Changes in MAPE with climate are then decomposed into components. It is shown that in simulations of dry atmospheres, changes in the latitude of maximum MAPE are dominated by changes in near-surface merid- ional temperature gradients. By contrast, changes in the magnitude of MAPE are primarily determined by changes in static stability and in the depth of the troposphere. A theory of storm track shifts may build upon these findings and primarily needs to explain changes in near-surface meridional temperature gradients. The terminus of the Hadley circulation often shifts in tandem with storm tracks and is hypothesized to play an important role in triggering the storm track shifts seen in this idealized dry context, especially in simulations where increases only in the convective static stability in the deep tropics suffice to shift storm tracks poleward. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T06:42:18Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:f9b780c1-7e50-44e8-bd0b-bca3b3e49356 |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T06:42:18Z |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publisher | American Meteorological Society |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:f9b780c1-7e50-44e8-bd0b-bca3b3e493562022-03-27T13:00:01ZStorm track shifts under climate change: toward a mechanistic understanding using baroclinic mean available potential energyJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:f9b780c1-7e50-44e8-bd0b-bca3b3e49356Symplectic Elements at OxfordAmerican Meteorological Society2016Mbengue, CSchneider, TZonal-mean storm track shifts in response to perturbations in climate occur even in ide- alized simulations of dry atmospheres with axisymmetric forcing. Nonetheless, a generally accepted theory of the mechanisms controlling the storm track shifts is still lacking. Here mean available potential energy (MAPE), a general measure of baroclinicity that is propor- tional to the square of the Eady growth rate, is used to understand storm track shifts. It is demonstrated that, in dry atmospheres, the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in a storm track is linearly related to the mean available potential energy, relative to a local reference state, and that maxima of the two are generally collocated in latitude. Changes in MAPE with climate are then decomposed into components. It is shown that in simulations of dry atmospheres, changes in the latitude of maximum MAPE are dominated by changes in near-surface merid- ional temperature gradients. By contrast, changes in the magnitude of MAPE are primarily determined by changes in static stability and in the depth of the troposphere. A theory of storm track shifts may build upon these findings and primarily needs to explain changes in near-surface meridional temperature gradients. The terminus of the Hadley circulation often shifts in tandem with storm tracks and is hypothesized to play an important role in triggering the storm track shifts seen in this idealized dry context, especially in simulations where increases only in the convective static stability in the deep tropics suffice to shift storm tracks poleward. |
| spellingShingle | Mbengue, C Schneider, T Storm track shifts under climate change: toward a mechanistic understanding using baroclinic mean available potential energy |
| title | Storm track shifts under climate change: toward a mechanistic understanding using baroclinic mean available potential energy |
| title_full | Storm track shifts under climate change: toward a mechanistic understanding using baroclinic mean available potential energy |
| title_fullStr | Storm track shifts under climate change: toward a mechanistic understanding using baroclinic mean available potential energy |
| title_full_unstemmed | Storm track shifts under climate change: toward a mechanistic understanding using baroclinic mean available potential energy |
| title_short | Storm track shifts under climate change: toward a mechanistic understanding using baroclinic mean available potential energy |
| title_sort | storm track shifts under climate change toward a mechanistic understanding using baroclinic mean available potential energy |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mbenguec stormtrackshiftsunderclimatechangetowardamechanisticunderstandingusingbaroclinicmeanavailablepotentialenergy AT schneidert stormtrackshiftsunderclimatechangetowardamechanisticunderstandingusingbaroclinicmeanavailablepotentialenergy |