Polarized extremes and the confused centre: Campaign targeting of voters with correlation neglect
We model the effect of competing political campaigns on the opinion of voters who exhibit correlation neglect, i.e., fail to understand that different campaigns might be correlated. We show that political campaigners can manipulate voters' beliefs even when voters understand the informativeness...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| 格式: | Journal article |
| 语言: | English |
| 出版: |
Now Publishers
2021
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| _version_ | 1826306821564923904 |
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| author | Levy, G Moreno De Barreda, I Razin, R |
| author_facet | Levy, G Moreno De Barreda, I Razin, R |
| author_sort | Levy, G |
| collection | OXFORD |
| description | We model the effect of competing political campaigns on the opinion of voters who exhibit correlation neglect, i.e., fail to understand that different campaigns might be correlated. We show that political campaigners can manipulate voters' beliefs even when voters understand the informativeness of each campaign separately. The optimal coordination of campaigns involves negative correlation of good news and sometimes full positive correlation of bad news. We show that competition in targeted campaigns has the effect of changing the opinions of different groups in different ways; competition increases polarisation among extreme voters but at the same time increases the variance and the quality of moderates' voting decisions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-07T06:53:42Z |
| format | Journal article |
| id | oxford-uuid:fd67eec7-f7b2-4d36-a9db-8b457974c1e9 |
| institution | University of Oxford |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-07T06:53:42Z |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publisher | Now Publishers |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oxford-uuid:fd67eec7-f7b2-4d36-a9db-8b457974c1e92022-03-27T13:28:37ZPolarized extremes and the confused centre: Campaign targeting of voters with correlation neglectJournal articlehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_dcae04bcuuid:fd67eec7-f7b2-4d36-a9db-8b457974c1e9EnglishSymplectic ElementsNow Publishers2021Levy, GMoreno De Barreda, IRazin, RWe model the effect of competing political campaigns on the opinion of voters who exhibit correlation neglect, i.e., fail to understand that different campaigns might be correlated. We show that political campaigners can manipulate voters' beliefs even when voters understand the informativeness of each campaign separately. The optimal coordination of campaigns involves negative correlation of good news and sometimes full positive correlation of bad news. We show that competition in targeted campaigns has the effect of changing the opinions of different groups in different ways; competition increases polarisation among extreme voters but at the same time increases the variance and the quality of moderates' voting decisions. |
| spellingShingle | Levy, G Moreno De Barreda, I Razin, R Polarized extremes and the confused centre: Campaign targeting of voters with correlation neglect |
| title | Polarized extremes and the confused centre: Campaign targeting of voters with correlation neglect |
| title_full | Polarized extremes and the confused centre: Campaign targeting of voters with correlation neglect |
| title_fullStr | Polarized extremes and the confused centre: Campaign targeting of voters with correlation neglect |
| title_full_unstemmed | Polarized extremes and the confused centre: Campaign targeting of voters with correlation neglect |
| title_short | Polarized extremes and the confused centre: Campaign targeting of voters with correlation neglect |
| title_sort | polarized extremes and the confused centre campaign targeting of voters with correlation neglect |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT levyg polarizedextremesandtheconfusedcentrecampaigntargetingofvoterswithcorrelationneglect AT morenodebarredai polarizedextremesandtheconfusedcentrecampaigntargetingofvoterswithcorrelationneglect AT razinr polarizedextremesandtheconfusedcentrecampaigntargetingofvoterswithcorrelationneglect |