| Özet: | <p><strong>Objectives:</strong> To develop and validate a prognostic model to predict deterioration in health-related quality of life (dHRQoL) in older general practice patients with at least one chronic condition and one chronic prescription.</p>
<p><strong>Study Design and Setting:</strong> We used individual participant data from five cluster-randomized trials conducted in the Netherlands and Germany to predict dHRQoL, defined as a decrease in EQ-5D-3 L index score of ≥5% after 6-month follow-up in logistic regression models with stratified intercepts to account for between-study heterogeneity. The model was validated internally and by using internal–external cross-validation (IECV).</p>
<p><strong>Results:</strong> In 3,582 patients with complete data, of whom 1,046 (29.2%) showed deterioration in HRQoL, and 12/87 variables were selected that were related to single (chronic) conditions, inappropriate medication, medication underuse, functional status, well-being, and HRQoL. Bootstrap internal validation showed a C-statistic of 0.71 (0.69 to 0.72) and a calibration slope of 0.88 (0.78 to 0.98). In the IECV loop, the model provided a pooled C-statistic of 0.68 (0.65 to 0.70) and calibration-in-the-large of 0 (−0.13 to 0.13). HRQoL/functionality had the strongest prognostic value.</p>
<p><strong>Conclusion:</strong> The model performed well in terms of discrimination, calibration, and generalizability and might help clinicians identify older patients at high risk of dHRQoL.</p>
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