No evidence of sustained nonzoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi transmission in Malaysia from modelling malaria case data
Reported incidence of the zoonotic malaria Plasmodium knowlesi has markedly increased across Southeast Asia and threatens malaria elimination. Nonzoonotic transmission of P. knowlesi has been experimentally demonstrated, but it remains unknown whether nonzoonotic transmission is contributing to incr...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English English |
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The Macmillan Campus
2022
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| Online Access: | https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/36820/1/ABSTRACT.pdf https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/36820/2/FULL%20TEXT.pdf |
| _version_ | 1796911885183877120 |
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| author | Kimberly M. Fornace Hillary M. Topazian Isobel Routledge Syafie Asyraf Jenarun Jelip Kim A. Lindblade Mohammad Saffree Jeffree Pablo Ruiz Cuenca Samir Bhatt Kamruddin Ahmed Azra C. Ghani Chris Drakeley |
| author_facet | Kimberly M. Fornace Hillary M. Topazian Isobel Routledge Syafie Asyraf Jenarun Jelip Kim A. Lindblade Mohammad Saffree Jeffree Pablo Ruiz Cuenca Samir Bhatt Kamruddin Ahmed Azra C. Ghani Chris Drakeley |
| author_sort | Kimberly M. Fornace |
| collection | UMS |
| description | Reported incidence of the zoonotic malaria Plasmodium knowlesi has markedly increased across Southeast Asia and threatens malaria elimination. Nonzoonotic transmission of P. knowlesi has been experimentally demonstrated, but it remains unknown whether nonzoonotic transmission is contributing to increases in P. knowlesi cases. Here, we adapt model-based inference methods to estimate RC, individual case reproductive numbers, for P. knowlesi, P. falciparum and P. vivax human cases in Malaysia from 2012–2020 (n = 32,635). Best fitting models for P. knowlesi showed subcritical transmission (RC < 1) consistent with a large reservoir of unobserved infection sources, indicating P. knowlesi remains a primarily zoonotic infection. In contrast, sustained transmission (RC > 1) was estimated historically for P. falciparum and P. vivax, with declines in RC estimates observed over time consistent with local elimination. Together, this suggests sustained nonzoonotic P. knowlesi transmission is highly unlikely and that new approaches are urgently needed to control spillover risks. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-06T03:25:24Z |
| format | Article |
| id | ums.eprints-36820 |
| institution | Universiti Malaysia Sabah |
| language | English English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-06T03:25:24Z |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publisher | The Macmillan Campus |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | ums.eprints-368202023-09-19T01:59:25Z https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/36820/ No evidence of sustained nonzoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi transmission in Malaysia from modelling malaria case data Kimberly M. Fornace Hillary M. Topazian Isobel Routledge Syafie Asyraf Jenarun Jelip Kim A. Lindblade Mohammad Saffree Jeffree Pablo Ruiz Cuenca Samir Bhatt Kamruddin Ahmed Azra C. Ghani Chris Drakeley QL461-599.82 Insects RC109-216 Infectious and parasitic diseases Reported incidence of the zoonotic malaria Plasmodium knowlesi has markedly increased across Southeast Asia and threatens malaria elimination. Nonzoonotic transmission of P. knowlesi has been experimentally demonstrated, but it remains unknown whether nonzoonotic transmission is contributing to increases in P. knowlesi cases. Here, we adapt model-based inference methods to estimate RC, individual case reproductive numbers, for P. knowlesi, P. falciparum and P. vivax human cases in Malaysia from 2012–2020 (n = 32,635). Best fitting models for P. knowlesi showed subcritical transmission (RC < 1) consistent with a large reservoir of unobserved infection sources, indicating P. knowlesi remains a primarily zoonotic infection. In contrast, sustained transmission (RC > 1) was estimated historically for P. falciparum and P. vivax, with declines in RC estimates observed over time consistent with local elimination. Together, this suggests sustained nonzoonotic P. knowlesi transmission is highly unlikely and that new approaches are urgently needed to control spillover risks. The Macmillan Campus 2022 Article NonPeerReviewed text en https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/36820/1/ABSTRACT.pdf text en https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/36820/2/FULL%20TEXT.pdf Kimberly M. Fornace and Hillary M. Topazian and Isobel Routledge and Syafie Asyraf and Jenarun Jelip and Kim A. Lindblade and Mohammad Saffree Jeffree and Pablo Ruiz Cuenca and Samir Bhatt and Kamruddin Ahmed and Azra C. Ghani and Chris Drakeley (2022) No evidence of sustained nonzoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi transmission in Malaysia from modelling malaria case data. Nature Communications. pp. 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38476-8 |
| spellingShingle | QL461-599.82 Insects RC109-216 Infectious and parasitic diseases Kimberly M. Fornace Hillary M. Topazian Isobel Routledge Syafie Asyraf Jenarun Jelip Kim A. Lindblade Mohammad Saffree Jeffree Pablo Ruiz Cuenca Samir Bhatt Kamruddin Ahmed Azra C. Ghani Chris Drakeley No evidence of sustained nonzoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi transmission in Malaysia from modelling malaria case data |
| title | No evidence of sustained nonzoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi transmission in Malaysia from modelling malaria case data |
| title_full | No evidence of sustained nonzoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi transmission in Malaysia from modelling malaria case data |
| title_fullStr | No evidence of sustained nonzoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi transmission in Malaysia from modelling malaria case data |
| title_full_unstemmed | No evidence of sustained nonzoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi transmission in Malaysia from modelling malaria case data |
| title_short | No evidence of sustained nonzoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi transmission in Malaysia from modelling malaria case data |
| title_sort | no evidence of sustained nonzoonotic plasmodium knowlesi transmission in malaysia from modelling malaria case data |
| topic | QL461-599.82 Insects RC109-216 Infectious and parasitic diseases |
| url | https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/36820/1/ABSTRACT.pdf https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/36820/2/FULL%20TEXT.pdf |
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