Modeling potential impacts of climate change on streamflow using projections of the 5th assessment report for the Bernam river basin, Malaysia
Potential impacts of climate change on the streamflow of the Bernam River Basin in Malaysia are assessed using ten Global Climate Models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). A graphical user interface was developed that integrates all of the common pr...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
2017
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| Online Access: | https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/42483/1/FULL%20TEXT.pdf |
| _version_ | 1825716045257637888 |
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| author | Nkululeko Simeon Dlamini Md Rowshon Kamal Mohd Amin Mohd Soom Mohd Syazwan Faisal Mohd Ahmad Fikri Abdullah Lai, Sai Hin |
| author_facet | Nkululeko Simeon Dlamini Md Rowshon Kamal Mohd Amin Mohd Soom Mohd Syazwan Faisal Mohd Ahmad Fikri Abdullah Lai, Sai Hin |
| author_sort | Nkululeko Simeon Dlamini |
| collection | UMS |
| description | Potential impacts of climate change on the streamflow of the Bernam River Basin in Malaysia are assessed using ten Global Climate Models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). A graphical user interface was developed that integrates all of the common procedures of assessing climate change impacts, to generate high resolution climate variables (e.g., rainfall, temperature, etc.) at the local scale from large-scale climate models. These are linked in one executable module to generate future climate sequences that can be used as inputs to various models, including hydrological and crop models. The generated outputs were used as inputs to the SWAT hydrological model to simulate the hydrological processes. The evaluation results indicated that the model performed well for the watershed with a monthly R2 , Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Percent Bias (PBIAS) values of 0.67, 0.62 and −9.4 and 0.62, 0.61 and −4.2 for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. The multi-model projections show an increase in future temperature (tmax and tmin) in all respective scenarios, up to an average of 2.5 ◦C for under the worst-case scenario (RC8.5). Rainfall is also predicted to change with clear variations between the dry and wet season. Streamflow projections also followed rainfall pattern to a great extent with a distinct change between the dry and wet season possibly due to the increase in evapotranspiration in the watershed. In principle, the interface can be customized for the application to other watersheds by incorporating GCMs’ baseline data and their corresponding future data for those particular stations in the new watershed. Methodological limitations of the study are also discussed. |
| first_indexed | 2025-03-05T01:35:01Z |
| format | Article |
| id | ums.eprints-42483 |
| institution | Universiti Malaysia Sabah |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2025-03-05T01:35:01Z |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publisher | MDPI Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | ums.eprints-424832024-12-31T03:16:34Z https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/42483/ Modeling potential impacts of climate change on streamflow using projections of the 5th assessment report for the Bernam river basin, Malaysia Nkululeko Simeon Dlamini Md Rowshon Kamal Mohd Amin Mohd Soom Mohd Syazwan Faisal Mohd Ahmad Fikri Abdullah Lai, Sai Hin S1-(972) Agriculture (General) S600-600.7 Agricultural meteorology. Crops and climate Potential impacts of climate change on the streamflow of the Bernam River Basin in Malaysia are assessed using ten Global Climate Models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). A graphical user interface was developed that integrates all of the common procedures of assessing climate change impacts, to generate high resolution climate variables (e.g., rainfall, temperature, etc.) at the local scale from large-scale climate models. These are linked in one executable module to generate future climate sequences that can be used as inputs to various models, including hydrological and crop models. The generated outputs were used as inputs to the SWAT hydrological model to simulate the hydrological processes. The evaluation results indicated that the model performed well for the watershed with a monthly R2 , Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Percent Bias (PBIAS) values of 0.67, 0.62 and −9.4 and 0.62, 0.61 and −4.2 for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. The multi-model projections show an increase in future temperature (tmax and tmin) in all respective scenarios, up to an average of 2.5 ◦C for under the worst-case scenario (RC8.5). Rainfall is also predicted to change with clear variations between the dry and wet season. Streamflow projections also followed rainfall pattern to a great extent with a distinct change between the dry and wet season possibly due to the increase in evapotranspiration in the watershed. In principle, the interface can be customized for the application to other watersheds by incorporating GCMs’ baseline data and their corresponding future data for those particular stations in the new watershed. Methodological limitations of the study are also discussed. MDPI Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute 2017 Article NonPeerReviewed text en https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/42483/1/FULL%20TEXT.pdf Nkululeko Simeon Dlamini and Md Rowshon Kamal and Mohd Amin Mohd Soom and Mohd Syazwan Faisal Mohd and Ahmad Fikri Abdullah and Lai, Sai Hin (2017) Modeling potential impacts of climate change on streamflow using projections of the 5th assessment report for the Bernam river basin, Malaysia. Water, 9. pp. 1-23. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9030226 |
| spellingShingle | S1-(972) Agriculture (General) S600-600.7 Agricultural meteorology. Crops and climate Nkululeko Simeon Dlamini Md Rowshon Kamal Mohd Amin Mohd Soom Mohd Syazwan Faisal Mohd Ahmad Fikri Abdullah Lai, Sai Hin Modeling potential impacts of climate change on streamflow using projections of the 5th assessment report for the Bernam river basin, Malaysia |
| title | Modeling potential impacts of climate change on streamflow using projections of the 5th assessment report for the Bernam river basin, Malaysia |
| title_full | Modeling potential impacts of climate change on streamflow using projections of the 5th assessment report for the Bernam river basin, Malaysia |
| title_fullStr | Modeling potential impacts of climate change on streamflow using projections of the 5th assessment report for the Bernam river basin, Malaysia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling potential impacts of climate change on streamflow using projections of the 5th assessment report for the Bernam river basin, Malaysia |
| title_short | Modeling potential impacts of climate change on streamflow using projections of the 5th assessment report for the Bernam river basin, Malaysia |
| title_sort | modeling potential impacts of climate change on streamflow using projections of the 5th assessment report for the bernam river basin malaysia |
| topic | S1-(972) Agriculture (General) S600-600.7 Agricultural meteorology. Crops and climate |
| url | https://eprints.ums.edu.my/id/eprint/42483/1/FULL%20TEXT.pdf |
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