Forecasting with univariate time series models : a case of export demand for Peninsular Malaysia’s moulding and chipboard.
This study determines a suitable method from the univariate time series models to forecast the export demand of moulding and chipboard volume (m³) from Peninsular Malaysia using the quarterly data from March 1982 to June 2009. Export demand for moulding and chipboard were estimated using univariate...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English English |
| Published: |
Canadian Center of Science and Education
2010
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| Online Access: | http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/14800/1/Forecasting%20with%20univariate%20time%20series%20models.pdf |
| _version_ | 1825945498022838272 |
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| author | Emang, Diana Shitan, Mahendran Abd. Ghani, Awang Noor Mohd. Noor, Khamurudin |
| author_facet | Emang, Diana Shitan, Mahendran Abd. Ghani, Awang Noor Mohd. Noor, Khamurudin |
| author_sort | Emang, Diana |
| collection | UPM |
| description | This study determines a suitable method from the univariate time series models to forecast the export demand of moulding and chipboard volume (m³) from Peninsular Malaysia using the quarterly data from March 1982 to June 2009. Export demand for moulding and chipboard were estimated using univariate time series models including the Holt-Winters Seasonal, ARAR algorithms and the seasonal ARIMA models. The seasonal ARIMA (1, 0, 4) X (0, 0, 1, 0)4 model produced the best forecast at the lowest forecast errors of MAPE, MAE and RMSE at 18.83%, 32730.8 and 35282.13, respectively. It forecasts the volume (m³) of moulding and chipboard for export to reach more than 150000 m3, and it is expected to be within range of 100000 to 250000 m3 at 95% confidence level. The forecasts assist in decision making process and facilitate a short-term marketing plan to meet the export demand from international market. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-06T07:32:27Z |
| format | Article |
| id | upm.eprints-14800 |
| institution | Universiti Putra Malaysia |
| language | English English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-06T07:32:27Z |
| publishDate | 2010 |
| publisher | Canadian Center of Science and Education |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | upm.eprints-148002015-09-10T04:26:56Z http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/14800/ Forecasting with univariate time series models : a case of export demand for Peninsular Malaysia’s moulding and chipboard. Emang, Diana Shitan, Mahendran Abd. Ghani, Awang Noor Mohd. Noor, Khamurudin This study determines a suitable method from the univariate time series models to forecast the export demand of moulding and chipboard volume (m³) from Peninsular Malaysia using the quarterly data from March 1982 to June 2009. Export demand for moulding and chipboard were estimated using univariate time series models including the Holt-Winters Seasonal, ARAR algorithms and the seasonal ARIMA models. The seasonal ARIMA (1, 0, 4) X (0, 0, 1, 0)4 model produced the best forecast at the lowest forecast errors of MAPE, MAE and RMSE at 18.83%, 32730.8 and 35282.13, respectively. It forecasts the volume (m³) of moulding and chipboard for export to reach more than 150000 m3, and it is expected to be within range of 100000 to 250000 m3 at 95% confidence level. The forecasts assist in decision making process and facilitate a short-term marketing plan to meet the export demand from international market. Canadian Center of Science and Education 2010 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/14800/1/Forecasting%20with%20univariate%20time%20series%20models.pdf Emang, Diana and Shitan, Mahendran and Abd. Ghani, Awang Noor and Mohd. Noor, Khamurudin (2010) Forecasting with univariate time series models : a case of export demand for Peninsular Malaysia’s moulding and chipboard. Journal of Sustainable Development, 3 (3). pp. 157-161. ISSN 1913-9071 English |
| spellingShingle | Emang, Diana Shitan, Mahendran Abd. Ghani, Awang Noor Mohd. Noor, Khamurudin Forecasting with univariate time series models : a case of export demand for Peninsular Malaysia’s moulding and chipboard. |
| title | Forecasting with univariate time series models : a case of export demand for Peninsular Malaysia’s moulding and chipboard. |
| title_full | Forecasting with univariate time series models : a case of export demand for Peninsular Malaysia’s moulding and chipboard. |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting with univariate time series models : a case of export demand for Peninsular Malaysia’s moulding and chipboard. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting with univariate time series models : a case of export demand for Peninsular Malaysia’s moulding and chipboard. |
| title_short | Forecasting with univariate time series models : a case of export demand for Peninsular Malaysia’s moulding and chipboard. |
| title_sort | forecasting with univariate time series models a case of export demand for peninsular malaysia s moulding and chipboard |
| url | http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/14800/1/Forecasting%20with%20univariate%20time%20series%20models.pdf |
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