Dam Overtopping risk using probabilistic concepts - Case Study: The Meijaran Dam, Iran.

Hydrologic risk assessment and uncertainty analysis by mathematical and statistical methods provide useful information for decision makers. This study presents the application of risk and uncertainty analysis to dam overtopping due to various inflows and wind speeds for the Meijaran Dam in the north...

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Main Authors: Lee, Teang Shui, Goodarzi, Ehsan, Ziaei, Mina
Format: Article
Language:English
English
Published: 2013
Online Access:http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/28565/1/Dam%20Overtopping%20risk%20using%20probabilistic%20concepts.pdf
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author Lee, Teang Shui
Goodarzi, Ehsan
Ziaei, Mina
author_facet Lee, Teang Shui
Goodarzi, Ehsan
Ziaei, Mina
author_sort Lee, Teang Shui
collection UPM
description Hydrologic risk assessment and uncertainty analysis by mathematical and statistical methods provide useful information for decision makers. This study presents the application of risk and uncertainty analysis to dam overtopping due to various inflows and wind speeds for the Meijaran Dam in the north of Iran. The procedure includes univariate flood and wind speed frequency analyses, reservoir routing, and integration of wind set-up and run-up to calculate the reservoir water elevation. Afterwards, the probability of overtopping was assessed by applying two uncertainty analysis methods (Monte Carlo simulation and Latin hypercube sampling), and considering the quantile of flood peak discharge, initial depth of water in the reservoir, and spillway discharge coefficient as uncertain variables. The results revealed that rising water level in the reservoir is the most important factor in overtopping risk analysis and that wind speed also has a considerable impact on reservoirs that are placed in windy areas.
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spelling upm.eprints-285652015-10-01T07:43:59Z http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/28565/ Dam Overtopping risk using probabilistic concepts - Case Study: The Meijaran Dam, Iran. Lee, Teang Shui Goodarzi, Ehsan Ziaei, Mina Hydrologic risk assessment and uncertainty analysis by mathematical and statistical methods provide useful information for decision makers. This study presents the application of risk and uncertainty analysis to dam overtopping due to various inflows and wind speeds for the Meijaran Dam in the north of Iran. The procedure includes univariate flood and wind speed frequency analyses, reservoir routing, and integration of wind set-up and run-up to calculate the reservoir water elevation. Afterwards, the probability of overtopping was assessed by applying two uncertainty analysis methods (Monte Carlo simulation and Latin hypercube sampling), and considering the quantile of flood peak discharge, initial depth of water in the reservoir, and spillway discharge coefficient as uncertain variables. The results revealed that rising water level in the reservoir is the most important factor in overtopping risk analysis and that wind speed also has a considerable impact on reservoirs that are placed in windy areas. 2013 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/28565/1/Dam%20Overtopping%20risk%20using%20probabilistic%20concepts.pdf Lee, Teang Shui and Goodarzi, Ehsan and Ziaei, Mina (2013) Dam Overtopping risk using probabilistic concepts - Case Study: The Meijaran Dam, Iran. Ain Shams Engineering Journal, 2013 (4). pp. 185-197. ISSN 2090-4479 10.1016/j.asej.2012.09.001 English
spellingShingle Lee, Teang Shui
Goodarzi, Ehsan
Ziaei, Mina
Dam Overtopping risk using probabilistic concepts - Case Study: The Meijaran Dam, Iran.
title Dam Overtopping risk using probabilistic concepts - Case Study: The Meijaran Dam, Iran.
title_full Dam Overtopping risk using probabilistic concepts - Case Study: The Meijaran Dam, Iran.
title_fullStr Dam Overtopping risk using probabilistic concepts - Case Study: The Meijaran Dam, Iran.
title_full_unstemmed Dam Overtopping risk using probabilistic concepts - Case Study: The Meijaran Dam, Iran.
title_short Dam Overtopping risk using probabilistic concepts - Case Study: The Meijaran Dam, Iran.
title_sort dam overtopping risk using probabilistic concepts case study the meijaran dam iran
url http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/28565/1/Dam%20Overtopping%20risk%20using%20probabilistic%20concepts.pdf
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