Malaysia Abridged SimSmoke model - towards achieving 2025 and 2045 smoking prevalence targets

Introduction: In respond to the World Health Assembly global NCD target of 30% reduction in the prevalence of adult tobacco use by 2025, Malaysian government called for lowering its smoking prevalence to 15% by 2025. In addition, moving towards the endgame target of less than 5% smoking prevalence i...

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Main Authors: Mohamed Nor, Norashidah, Ross, Hana, Bui, Wency Kher Thinng, Abdul Ghani, Judhiana, Hassan, Norayana, Baharom, Nizam
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Universiti Putra Malaysia 2018
Online Access:http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/66128/1/2018092410404602_MJMHS_Oct_2018.pdf
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author Mohamed Nor, Norashidah
Ross, Hana
Bui, Wency Kher Thinng
Abdul Ghani, Judhiana
Hassan, Norayana
Baharom, Nizam
author_facet Mohamed Nor, Norashidah
Ross, Hana
Bui, Wency Kher Thinng
Abdul Ghani, Judhiana
Hassan, Norayana
Baharom, Nizam
author_sort Mohamed Nor, Norashidah
collection UPM
description Introduction: In respond to the World Health Assembly global NCD target of 30% reduction in the prevalence of adult tobacco use by 2025, Malaysian government called for lowering its smoking prevalence to 15% by 2025. In addition, moving towards the endgame target of less than 5% smoking prevalence in 2045. Methods: Malaysia Abridged SimSmoke model, a simulation model uses specific policy parameters, the most recent smoking prevalence, and population size for Malaysia is developed to estimates and access the impact of MPOWER policies in achieving the targets. Results: The 15% prevalence rate in 2025 can be achieved if the Malaysian government increase tobacco excise tax to 72% of the retail price, implement and enforce comprehensive smoke-free air policies, ban all forms of advertising/promotions and run intensive mass media campaigns. Such approach would reduce the number of smokers by about 2.6 million, averting almost 1.3 million premature deaths in the long term. The tobacco endgame target of less than 5% smoking prevalence by 2045 is achievable if the excise tax is further increased to 86.5% of the retail price while all other tobacco control policies are kept at the enhanced level. Conclusions: Both the targeted smoking prevalence are a realistic proposition if the proposed measures are fully implemented. It requires a whole government approach with the MOH as a leading agency driving the process. It is important to monitor both the compliance with the new measures and smoking prevalence to make sure that Malaysia is on track in achieving its targets.
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spelling upm.eprints-661282019-02-11T03:55:02Z http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/66128/ Malaysia Abridged SimSmoke model - towards achieving 2025 and 2045 smoking prevalence targets Mohamed Nor, Norashidah Ross, Hana Bui, Wency Kher Thinng Abdul Ghani, Judhiana Hassan, Norayana Baharom, Nizam Introduction: In respond to the World Health Assembly global NCD target of 30% reduction in the prevalence of adult tobacco use by 2025, Malaysian government called for lowering its smoking prevalence to 15% by 2025. In addition, moving towards the endgame target of less than 5% smoking prevalence in 2045. Methods: Malaysia Abridged SimSmoke model, a simulation model uses specific policy parameters, the most recent smoking prevalence, and population size for Malaysia is developed to estimates and access the impact of MPOWER policies in achieving the targets. Results: The 15% prevalence rate in 2025 can be achieved if the Malaysian government increase tobacco excise tax to 72% of the retail price, implement and enforce comprehensive smoke-free air policies, ban all forms of advertising/promotions and run intensive mass media campaigns. Such approach would reduce the number of smokers by about 2.6 million, averting almost 1.3 million premature deaths in the long term. The tobacco endgame target of less than 5% smoking prevalence by 2045 is achievable if the excise tax is further increased to 86.5% of the retail price while all other tobacco control policies are kept at the enhanced level. Conclusions: Both the targeted smoking prevalence are a realistic proposition if the proposed measures are fully implemented. It requires a whole government approach with the MOH as a leading agency driving the process. It is important to monitor both the compliance with the new measures and smoking prevalence to make sure that Malaysia is on track in achieving its targets. Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Universiti Putra Malaysia 2018 Article PeerReviewed text en http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/66128/1/2018092410404602_MJMHS_Oct_2018.pdf Mohamed Nor, Norashidah and Ross, Hana and Bui, Wency Kher Thinng and Abdul Ghani, Judhiana and Hassan, Norayana and Baharom, Nizam (2018) Malaysia Abridged SimSmoke model - towards achieving 2025 and 2045 smoking prevalence targets. Malaysian Journal of Medicine and Health Sciences, 14 (3). pp. 8-15. ISSN 1675-8544; ESSN: 2636-9346 http://www.medic.upm.edu.my/upload/dokumen/2018092410404602_MJMHS_Oct_2018.pdf
spellingShingle Mohamed Nor, Norashidah
Ross, Hana
Bui, Wency Kher Thinng
Abdul Ghani, Judhiana
Hassan, Norayana
Baharom, Nizam
Malaysia Abridged SimSmoke model - towards achieving 2025 and 2045 smoking prevalence targets
title Malaysia Abridged SimSmoke model - towards achieving 2025 and 2045 smoking prevalence targets
title_full Malaysia Abridged SimSmoke model - towards achieving 2025 and 2045 smoking prevalence targets
title_fullStr Malaysia Abridged SimSmoke model - towards achieving 2025 and 2045 smoking prevalence targets
title_full_unstemmed Malaysia Abridged SimSmoke model - towards achieving 2025 and 2045 smoking prevalence targets
title_short Malaysia Abridged SimSmoke model - towards achieving 2025 and 2045 smoking prevalence targets
title_sort malaysia abridged simsmoke model towards achieving 2025 and 2045 smoking prevalence targets
url http://psasir.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/66128/1/2018092410404602_MJMHS_Oct_2018.pdf
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