Lifetime prediction and estimation of power transformer

This project presents a method to estimate and predict failure probability related to aging transformer units in power system. Statistically, the sample mean or the average age method is acceptable if it is used in a case where there is a big population. This method obviously is not suitable f...

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Main Author: Oon, Syahira Raihan
Format: Thesis
Language:English
English
English
Published: 2013
Subjects:
Online Access:http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/2134/1/24p%20SYAHIRA%20RAIHAN%20OON.pdf
http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/2134/2/SYAHIRA%20RAIHAN%20OON%20COPYRIGHT%20DECLARATION.pdf
http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/2134/3/SYAHIRA%20RAIHAN%20OON%20WATERMARK.pdf
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author Oon, Syahira Raihan
author_facet Oon, Syahira Raihan
author_sort Oon, Syahira Raihan
collection UTHM
description This project presents a method to estimate and predict failure probability related to aging transformer units in power system. Statistically, the sample mean or the average age method is acceptable if it is used in a case where there is a big population. This method obviously is not suitable for power system components with very few samples of end-of-life failures. The essential weakness of the sample mean is that it only uses information of died components. This research proposed an approach to estimate and predict the lifetime of a power transformer by using NGC data. The data with both died and survive transformers will make contribution on estimating the mean life of power transformer. Two methods that used are normal and Weibull distributions. Although the two methods have different estimation approaches and solution techniques, they are related to each other and use the same format of raw data. From this research, the mean life and standard deviation for normal and Weibull distribution estimation should be quite close and also to the shape of the both distribution. Thus, statistical reliability analysis can provide predictions, such percentage of transformer that will fail at a particular time of before a particular age and how many transformers will fail in the next future year by using failure rate model. From that prediction, the forecasted capital expenditure ( the cost of replacement and consequential failure cost) also can be specified. Thus, it will avoid asset harvesting and the possibility of having unforeseen costs.
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spelling uthm.eprints-21342021-10-31T02:43:45Z http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/2134/ Lifetime prediction and estimation of power transformer Oon, Syahira Raihan TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering TK2000-2891 Dynamoelectric machinery and auxiliaries. Including generators, motors, transformers This project presents a method to estimate and predict failure probability related to aging transformer units in power system. Statistically, the sample mean or the average age method is acceptable if it is used in a case where there is a big population. This method obviously is not suitable for power system components with very few samples of end-of-life failures. The essential weakness of the sample mean is that it only uses information of died components. This research proposed an approach to estimate and predict the lifetime of a power transformer by using NGC data. The data with both died and survive transformers will make contribution on estimating the mean life of power transformer. Two methods that used are normal and Weibull distributions. Although the two methods have different estimation approaches and solution techniques, they are related to each other and use the same format of raw data. From this research, the mean life and standard deviation for normal and Weibull distribution estimation should be quite close and also to the shape of the both distribution. Thus, statistical reliability analysis can provide predictions, such percentage of transformer that will fail at a particular time of before a particular age and how many transformers will fail in the next future year by using failure rate model. From that prediction, the forecasted capital expenditure ( the cost of replacement and consequential failure cost) also can be specified. Thus, it will avoid asset harvesting and the possibility of having unforeseen costs. 2013-01 Thesis NonPeerReviewed text en http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/2134/1/24p%20SYAHIRA%20RAIHAN%20OON.pdf text en http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/2134/2/SYAHIRA%20RAIHAN%20OON%20COPYRIGHT%20DECLARATION.pdf text en http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/2134/3/SYAHIRA%20RAIHAN%20OON%20WATERMARK.pdf Oon, Syahira Raihan (2013) Lifetime prediction and estimation of power transformer. Masters thesis, Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia.
spellingShingle TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
TK2000-2891 Dynamoelectric machinery and auxiliaries. Including generators, motors, transformers
Oon, Syahira Raihan
Lifetime prediction and estimation of power transformer
title Lifetime prediction and estimation of power transformer
title_full Lifetime prediction and estimation of power transformer
title_fullStr Lifetime prediction and estimation of power transformer
title_full_unstemmed Lifetime prediction and estimation of power transformer
title_short Lifetime prediction and estimation of power transformer
title_sort lifetime prediction and estimation of power transformer
topic TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
TK2000-2891 Dynamoelectric machinery and auxiliaries. Including generators, motors, transformers
url http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/2134/1/24p%20SYAHIRA%20RAIHAN%20OON.pdf
http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/2134/2/SYAHIRA%20RAIHAN%20OON%20COPYRIGHT%20DECLARATION.pdf
http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/2134/3/SYAHIRA%20RAIHAN%20OON%20WATERMARK.pdf
work_keys_str_mv AT oonsyahiraraihan lifetimepredictionandestimationofpowertransformer