Analysis of time series for Malaysian currency exchange rate to the United States currency
Currency exchange rate is one of the external factors that will affect the financial status of Malaysia. Therefore, forecasting the foreign currency exchange rate is important for the financial decision makers, bankers, academic researchers and business practitioners. Time series method is an import...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Conference or Workshop Item |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2021
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/2616/1/P12647_857bb7f00a0e44cc249f721bdf390066.pdf |
| _version_ | 1825636904312242176 |
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| author | Ting, Heng Sheng Rusiman, Mohd Saifullah Che Him, Norziha Sufahani, Suliadi Firdaus Nasibov, Efendi |
| author_facet | Ting, Heng Sheng Rusiman, Mohd Saifullah Che Him, Norziha Sufahani, Suliadi Firdaus Nasibov, Efendi |
| author_sort | Ting, Heng Sheng |
| collection | UTHM |
| description | Currency exchange rate is one of the external factors that will affect the financial status of Malaysia. Therefore, forecasting the foreign currency exchange rate is important for the financial decision makers, bankers, academic researchers and business practitioners. Time series method is an important area of predicting future data based on the past data. In this study, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Double Exponential Smoothing method and Holt-Winter additive method will be used to forecast the data of currency exchange rate of Malaysia Ringgit (RM) to United States of America Dollar (USD). The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for ARIMA, Double Exponential Smoothing method and Holt-Winter additive method are 0.9400, 0.9035 and 2.2686 respectively. In conclusion, the model generated by using Double exponential Smoothing method is the best model to forecast the currency data with the lowest value of MAPE, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Square Error (MSE) compared to ARIMA method and Holt-Winter Additive method. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-05T21:43:27Z |
| format | Conference or Workshop Item |
| id | uthm.eprints-2616 |
| institution | Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-05T21:43:27Z |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | uthm.eprints-26162021-10-25T07:54:19Z http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/2616/ Analysis of time series for Malaysian currency exchange rate to the United States currency Ting, Heng Sheng Rusiman, Mohd Saifullah Che Him, Norziha Sufahani, Suliadi Firdaus Nasibov, Efendi HG4001-4285 Finance management. Business finance. Corporation finance Currency exchange rate is one of the external factors that will affect the financial status of Malaysia. Therefore, forecasting the foreign currency exchange rate is important for the financial decision makers, bankers, academic researchers and business practitioners. Time series method is an important area of predicting future data based on the past data. In this study, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Double Exponential Smoothing method and Holt-Winter additive method will be used to forecast the data of currency exchange rate of Malaysia Ringgit (RM) to United States of America Dollar (USD). The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for ARIMA, Double Exponential Smoothing method and Holt-Winter additive method are 0.9400, 0.9035 and 2.2686 respectively. In conclusion, the model generated by using Double exponential Smoothing method is the best model to forecast the currency data with the lowest value of MAPE, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Square Error (MSE) compared to ARIMA method and Holt-Winter Additive method. 2021 Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed text en http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/2616/1/P12647_857bb7f00a0e44cc249f721bdf390066.pdf Ting, Heng Sheng and Rusiman, Mohd Saifullah and Che Him, Norziha and Sufahani, Suliadi Firdaus and Nasibov, Efendi (2021) Analysis of time series for Malaysian currency exchange rate to the United States currency. In: SCIEMATHIC 2020, 1-2 December 2020, UTHM. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0053700 |
| spellingShingle | HG4001-4285 Finance management. Business finance. Corporation finance Ting, Heng Sheng Rusiman, Mohd Saifullah Che Him, Norziha Sufahani, Suliadi Firdaus Nasibov, Efendi Analysis of time series for Malaysian currency exchange rate to the United States currency |
| title | Analysis of time series for Malaysian currency exchange rate to the United States currency |
| title_full | Analysis of time series for Malaysian currency exchange rate to the United States currency |
| title_fullStr | Analysis of time series for Malaysian currency exchange rate to the United States currency |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysis of time series for Malaysian currency exchange rate to the United States currency |
| title_short | Analysis of time series for Malaysian currency exchange rate to the United States currency |
| title_sort | analysis of time series for malaysian currency exchange rate to the united states currency |
| topic | HG4001-4285 Finance management. Business finance. Corporation finance |
| url | http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/2616/1/P12647_857bb7f00a0e44cc249f721bdf390066.pdf |
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