Predictive modelling of marine fish landings in Malaysia
The fisheries sector plays an important role in the economy as a major source of food, employment and income in Malaysia. In this study, the future number of marine fish landings in Malaysia will be predicted. The monthly data from January 2005 until December 2014 were taken from Department of Fishe...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Pushpa Publishing House
2018
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/5742/1/AJ%202018%20%28338%29.pdf |
| _version_ | 1825710071670112256 |
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| author | Rusiman, Mohd Saifullah Sufahani, Suliadi Firdaus Mohd Robi, Nur Afifi Izzati Abdullah, Abdul Wahab Azmi, Nur Amira |
| author_facet | Rusiman, Mohd Saifullah Sufahani, Suliadi Firdaus Mohd Robi, Nur Afifi Izzati Abdullah, Abdul Wahab Azmi, Nur Amira |
| author_sort | Rusiman, Mohd Saifullah |
| collection | UTHM |
| description | The fisheries sector plays an important role in the economy as a major source of food, employment and income in Malaysia. In this study, the future number of marine fish landings in Malaysia will be predicted. The monthly data from January 2005 until December 2014 were taken from Department of Fisheries Malaysia, Ministry of Agriculture and Agro-Based Industry Malaysia. The aims of this study are to predict the landing of marine fish in Malaysia by using Box-Jenkins and HoltWinters and to make a comparison between two models in order to find the better model for prediction of marine fish landings in Malaysia. Data for the number of marine fish landings is a trend pattern. Box-Jenkins and Holt-Winters approach will be applied to the number of marine fish landings. In this study, the forecast accuracy of Box-Jenkins and Holt-Winters approach has been compared by using the mean square error (MSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The better model obtained from Box-Jenkins approach was SARIMA(2, 1, 0)(0, 1, 1)12. For Holt-Winters, additive model is chosen since the MSE and MAPE values are lower. After comparing the Box-Jenkins approach and additive Holt-Winters, it is found that additive Holt-Winters is a better method with a lower value of MSE and MAPE and could be used by fisheries managers and scientists to decide on sustainable management issues. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-05T21:52:03Z |
| format | Article |
| id | uthm.eprints-5742 |
| institution | Universiti Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-05T21:52:03Z |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publisher | Pushpa Publishing House |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | uthm.eprints-57422022-01-23T03:12:43Z http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/5742/ Predictive modelling of marine fish landings in Malaysia Rusiman, Mohd Saifullah Sufahani, Suliadi Firdaus Mohd Robi, Nur Afifi Izzati Abdullah, Abdul Wahab Azmi, Nur Amira SH201 -399 Fisheries SH328-329 Fishery management. Fishery policy SH334 Economic aspects. Finance The fisheries sector plays an important role in the economy as a major source of food, employment and income in Malaysia. In this study, the future number of marine fish landings in Malaysia will be predicted. The monthly data from January 2005 until December 2014 were taken from Department of Fisheries Malaysia, Ministry of Agriculture and Agro-Based Industry Malaysia. The aims of this study are to predict the landing of marine fish in Malaysia by using Box-Jenkins and HoltWinters and to make a comparison between two models in order to find the better model for prediction of marine fish landings in Malaysia. Data for the number of marine fish landings is a trend pattern. Box-Jenkins and Holt-Winters approach will be applied to the number of marine fish landings. In this study, the forecast accuracy of Box-Jenkins and Holt-Winters approach has been compared by using the mean square error (MSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The better model obtained from Box-Jenkins approach was SARIMA(2, 1, 0)(0, 1, 1)12. For Holt-Winters, additive model is chosen since the MSE and MAPE values are lower. After comparing the Box-Jenkins approach and additive Holt-Winters, it is found that additive Holt-Winters is a better method with a lower value of MSE and MAPE and could be used by fisheries managers and scientists to decide on sustainable management issues. Pushpa Publishing House 2018 Article PeerReviewed text en http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/5742/1/AJ%202018%20%28338%29.pdf Rusiman, Mohd Saifullah and Sufahani, Suliadi Firdaus and Mohd Robi, Nur Afifi Izzati and Abdullah, Abdul Wahab and Azmi, Nur Amira (2018) Predictive modelling of marine fish landings in Malaysia. Advances and Applications in Statistics, 53 (2). pp. 123-135. ISSN 0972-3617 |
| spellingShingle | SH201 -399 Fisheries SH328-329 Fishery management. Fishery policy SH334 Economic aspects. Finance Rusiman, Mohd Saifullah Sufahani, Suliadi Firdaus Mohd Robi, Nur Afifi Izzati Abdullah, Abdul Wahab Azmi, Nur Amira Predictive modelling of marine fish landings in Malaysia |
| title | Predictive modelling of marine fish landings in Malaysia |
| title_full | Predictive modelling of marine fish landings in Malaysia |
| title_fullStr | Predictive modelling of marine fish landings in Malaysia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predictive modelling of marine fish landings in Malaysia |
| title_short | Predictive modelling of marine fish landings in Malaysia |
| title_sort | predictive modelling of marine fish landings in malaysia |
| topic | SH201 -399 Fisheries SH328-329 Fishery management. Fishery policy SH334 Economic aspects. Finance |
| url | http://eprints.uthm.edu.my/5742/1/AJ%202018%20%28338%29.pdf |
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