Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection
This study presents an empirical examination of climate change related to vulnerability impacts on food security and remedial adaptation options as a suitable strategy by prioritizing needs over a 50-year period. An Empirical Dynamic Commutable General Equilibrium Model for Climate and the Economy (...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Scientia Agricola
2016
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| Online Access: | http://eprints.utm.my/71598/1/AbuQuasem2016_AgricultureandFoodSecurityChallengeofClimateChange.pdf |
| _version_ | 1796861793221476352 |
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| author | Ahmed, F. Al Amin, A. Q. Mohamad, Z. F. Chenayah, S. |
| author_facet | Ahmed, F. Al Amin, A. Q. Mohamad, Z. F. Chenayah, S. |
| author_sort | Ahmed, F. |
| collection | ePrints |
| description | This study presents an empirical examination of climate change related to vulnerability impacts on food security and remedial adaptation options as a suitable strategy by prioritizing needs over a 50-year period. An Empirical Dynamic Commutable General Equilibrium Model for Climate and the Economy (EDCGECE) is applied using future strategies for Malaysia against a baseline scenario of existing conditions, following the top-down options. The model takes into account various climatic variables, including climatic damage, carbon cycle, temperature and rainfall fluctuation, carbon emissions, vulnerability and carbon concentrations, which were adapted from national observational predictions of climatic changes caused by global warming from 2015 to 2065. The results prioritize climate change mitigation for the future. Specifically, this study estimates Malaysia’s food sustainability prospects without adaptation actions and with 5 % to 20 % adaptation actions overtime in different adaptation scenarios, as contrasted with the baseline. The results indicate that food sustainability cost in the baseline in 2015 is 859.3 million US Dollar (USD), which is about a 30-35 % shortage compared with the national targets, and that the shortage will rise over time to USD 987.3 million in 2065. However, the cost of applying different levels of adaptation for food sustainability over time is rising considerably. However, the residual damage also decreases with all adaptation actions in the different scenarios. Thus, adaptation shows a positive sign for Malaysia’s agricultural sectors. As growth values are positive and show rising trends, therefore the projected adaptation policy can be effective for food sustainability for sustainable future strategies in Malaysia. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-05T20:01:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | utm.eprints-71598 |
| institution | Universiti Teknologi Malaysia - ePrints |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-05T20:01:47Z |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publisher | Scientia Agricola |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | utm.eprints-715982017-11-20T08:28:22Z http://eprints.utm.my/71598/ Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection Ahmed, F. Al Amin, A. Q. Mohamad, Z. F. Chenayah, S. T Technology (General) This study presents an empirical examination of climate change related to vulnerability impacts on food security and remedial adaptation options as a suitable strategy by prioritizing needs over a 50-year period. An Empirical Dynamic Commutable General Equilibrium Model for Climate and the Economy (EDCGECE) is applied using future strategies for Malaysia against a baseline scenario of existing conditions, following the top-down options. The model takes into account various climatic variables, including climatic damage, carbon cycle, temperature and rainfall fluctuation, carbon emissions, vulnerability and carbon concentrations, which were adapted from national observational predictions of climatic changes caused by global warming from 2015 to 2065. The results prioritize climate change mitigation for the future. Specifically, this study estimates Malaysia’s food sustainability prospects without adaptation actions and with 5 % to 20 % adaptation actions overtime in different adaptation scenarios, as contrasted with the baseline. The results indicate that food sustainability cost in the baseline in 2015 is 859.3 million US Dollar (USD), which is about a 30-35 % shortage compared with the national targets, and that the shortage will rise over time to USD 987.3 million in 2065. However, the cost of applying different levels of adaptation for food sustainability over time is rising considerably. However, the residual damage also decreases with all adaptation actions in the different scenarios. Thus, adaptation shows a positive sign for Malaysia’s agricultural sectors. As growth values are positive and show rising trends, therefore the projected adaptation policy can be effective for food sustainability for sustainable future strategies in Malaysia. Scientia Agricola 2016 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://eprints.utm.my/71598/1/AbuQuasem2016_AgricultureandFoodSecurityChallengeofClimateChange.pdf Ahmed, F. and Al Amin, A. Q. and Mohamad, Z. F. and Chenayah, S. (2016) Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection. Scientia Agricola, 73 (4). pp. 311-321. ISSN 0103-9016 https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84977573437&doi=10.1590%2f0103-9016-2015-0141&partnerID=40&md5=a8a2102c152b51d97aa50b8268f5536d |
| spellingShingle | T Technology (General) Ahmed, F. Al Amin, A. Q. Mohamad, Z. F. Chenayah, S. Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection |
| title | Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection |
| title_full | Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection |
| title_fullStr | Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection |
| title_full_unstemmed | Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection |
| title_short | Agriculture and food security challenge of climate change: a dynamic analysis for policy selection |
| title_sort | agriculture and food security challenge of climate change a dynamic analysis for policy selection |
| topic | T Technology (General) |
| url | http://eprints.utm.my/71598/1/AbuQuasem2016_AgricultureandFoodSecurityChallengeofClimateChange.pdf |
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