Domestic water demand forecasting in the Yellow River basin under changing environment
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to develop a statistical-based model to forecast future domestic water demand in the context of climate change, population growth and technological development in Yellow River. Design/methodology/approach: The model is developed through the analysis of the effec...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Emerald Group Publishing Ltd.
2018
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| Online Access: | http://eprints.utm.my/85419/1/ShamsuddinShahid2018_DomesticWaterDemandForecasting.pdf |
| _version_ | 1796864040492859392 |
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| author | Wang, Xiao-jun Zhang, Jian-yun Shamsuddin, Shahid Lang, Yu Chen, Xie Wang, Bing-xuan Xu, Zhang |
| author_facet | Wang, Xiao-jun Zhang, Jian-yun Shamsuddin, Shahid Lang, Yu Chen, Xie Wang, Bing-xuan Xu, Zhang |
| author_sort | Wang, Xiao-jun |
| collection | ePrints |
| description | Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to develop a statistical-based model to forecast future domestic water demand in the context of climate change, population growth and technological development in Yellow River. Design/methodology/approach: The model is developed through the analysis of the effects of climate variables and population on domestic water use in eight sub-basins of the Yellow River. The model is then used to forecast water demand under different environment change scenarios. Findings: The model projected an increase in domestic water demand in the Yellow River basin in the range of 67.85 × 108 to 62.20 × 108 m3 in year 2020 and between 73.32 × 108 and 89.27 × 108 m3 in year 2030. The general circulation model Beijing Normal University-Earth System Model (BNU-ESM) predicted the highest increase in water demand in both 2020 and 2030, while Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques Climate Model v.5 (CNRM-CM5) and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate- Earth System (MIROC-ESM) projected the lowest increase in demand in 2020 and 2030, respectively. The fastest growth in water demand is found in the region where water demand is already very high, which may cause serious water shortage and conflicts among water users. Originality/value: The simple regression-based domestic water demand model proposed in the study can be used for rapid evaluation of possible changes in domestic water demand due to environmental changes to aid in adaptation and mitigation planning. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-05T20:35:52Z |
| format | Article |
| id | utm.eprints-85419 |
| institution | Universiti Teknologi Malaysia - ePrints |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-05T20:35:52Z |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publisher | Emerald Group Publishing Ltd. |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | utm.eprints-854192020-06-16T06:48:30Z http://eprints.utm.my/85419/ Domestic water demand forecasting in the Yellow River basin under changing environment Wang, Xiao-jun Zhang, Jian-yun Shamsuddin, Shahid Lang, Yu Chen, Xie Wang, Bing-xuan Xu, Zhang TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to develop a statistical-based model to forecast future domestic water demand in the context of climate change, population growth and technological development in Yellow River. Design/methodology/approach: The model is developed through the analysis of the effects of climate variables and population on domestic water use in eight sub-basins of the Yellow River. The model is then used to forecast water demand under different environment change scenarios. Findings: The model projected an increase in domestic water demand in the Yellow River basin in the range of 67.85 × 108 to 62.20 × 108 m3 in year 2020 and between 73.32 × 108 and 89.27 × 108 m3 in year 2030. The general circulation model Beijing Normal University-Earth System Model (BNU-ESM) predicted the highest increase in water demand in both 2020 and 2030, while Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques Climate Model v.5 (CNRM-CM5) and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate- Earth System (MIROC-ESM) projected the lowest increase in demand in 2020 and 2030, respectively. The fastest growth in water demand is found in the region where water demand is already very high, which may cause serious water shortage and conflicts among water users. Originality/value: The simple regression-based domestic water demand model proposed in the study can be used for rapid evaluation of possible changes in domestic water demand due to environmental changes to aid in adaptation and mitigation planning. Emerald Group Publishing Ltd. 2018 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://eprints.utm.my/85419/1/ShamsuddinShahid2018_DomesticWaterDemandForecasting.pdf Wang, Xiao-jun and Zhang, Jian-yun and Shamsuddin, Shahid and Lang, Yu and Chen, Xie and Wang, Bing-xuan and Xu, Zhang (2018) Domestic water demand forecasting in the Yellow River basin under changing environment. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, 10 (3). pp. 379-388. ISSN 1756-8692 http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-03-2017-0067 |
| spellingShingle | TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) Wang, Xiao-jun Zhang, Jian-yun Shamsuddin, Shahid Lang, Yu Chen, Xie Wang, Bing-xuan Xu, Zhang Domestic water demand forecasting in the Yellow River basin under changing environment |
| title | Domestic water demand forecasting in the Yellow River basin under changing environment |
| title_full | Domestic water demand forecasting in the Yellow River basin under changing environment |
| title_fullStr | Domestic water demand forecasting in the Yellow River basin under changing environment |
| title_full_unstemmed | Domestic water demand forecasting in the Yellow River basin under changing environment |
| title_short | Domestic water demand forecasting in the Yellow River basin under changing environment |
| title_sort | domestic water demand forecasting in the yellow river basin under changing environment |
| topic | TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) |
| url | http://eprints.utm.my/85419/1/ShamsuddinShahid2018_DomesticWaterDemandForecasting.pdf |
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