Spatial distribution of secular trends in annual and seasonal precipitation over Pakistan
The presence of autocorrelation and long-term persistence (LTP) can lead to considerable change in the significance of trends in hydro-climatic time series. This therefore casts doubt on past findings of climatic trend studies that did not consider LTP. We assessed the trends in spatio temporal patt...
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| Format: | Article |
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Inter-Research
2018
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| _version_ | 1796864178566201344 |
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| author | Khan, Najeebullah Pour, Sahar Hadi Shahid, Shamsuddin Ismail, Tarmizi Ahmed, Kamal Chung, Eun Sung Nawaz, Nadeem Wang, Xiaojun |
| author_facet | Khan, Najeebullah Pour, Sahar Hadi Shahid, Shamsuddin Ismail, Tarmizi Ahmed, Kamal Chung, Eun Sung Nawaz, Nadeem Wang, Xiaojun |
| author_sort | Khan, Najeebullah |
| collection | ePrints |
| description | The presence of autocorrelation and long-term persistence (LTP) can lead to considerable change in the significance of trends in hydro-climatic time series. This therefore casts doubt on past findings of climatic trend studies that did not consider LTP. We assessed the trends in spatio temporal patterns of annual and seasonal precipitation of Pakistan in recent years (1961-2010) using precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) using (1) the ordinary Mann-Kendall (MK) test and (2) the modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) test, which can discriminate LTP from unidirectional trends. The results indicate that significance in trends obtained using the MK test is reduced when LTP is taken into consideration. The annual precipitation in Pakistan is increasing in the northern highlands and a few places in the sub- Himalayan ranges in northeast Pakistan, where monsoon precipitation is also increasing. There is no indication of significant change in winter precipitation. Post-monsoon precipitation is in - creasing at a few locations in the monsoon-dominated southeast region and decreasing in the southwestern arid region. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-05T20:37:59Z |
| format | Article |
| id | utm.eprints-86115 |
| institution | Universiti Teknologi Malaysia - ePrints |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-05T20:37:59Z |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publisher | Inter-Research |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | utm.eprints-861152020-08-30T08:56:17Z http://eprints.utm.my/86115/ Spatial distribution of secular trends in annual and seasonal precipitation over Pakistan Khan, Najeebullah Pour, Sahar Hadi Shahid, Shamsuddin Ismail, Tarmizi Ahmed, Kamal Chung, Eun Sung Nawaz, Nadeem Wang, Xiaojun TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) The presence of autocorrelation and long-term persistence (LTP) can lead to considerable change in the significance of trends in hydro-climatic time series. This therefore casts doubt on past findings of climatic trend studies that did not consider LTP. We assessed the trends in spatio temporal patterns of annual and seasonal precipitation of Pakistan in recent years (1961-2010) using precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) using (1) the ordinary Mann-Kendall (MK) test and (2) the modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) test, which can discriminate LTP from unidirectional trends. The results indicate that significance in trends obtained using the MK test is reduced when LTP is taken into consideration. The annual precipitation in Pakistan is increasing in the northern highlands and a few places in the sub- Himalayan ranges in northeast Pakistan, where monsoon precipitation is also increasing. There is no indication of significant change in winter precipitation. Post-monsoon precipitation is in - creasing at a few locations in the monsoon-dominated southeast region and decreasing in the southwestern arid region. Inter-Research 2018 Article PeerReviewed Khan, Najeebullah and Pour, Sahar Hadi and Shahid, Shamsuddin and Ismail, Tarmizi and Ahmed, Kamal and Chung, Eun Sung and Nawaz, Nadeem and Wang, Xiaojun (2018) Spatial distribution of secular trends in annual and seasonal precipitation over Pakistan. Climate Research, 74 (2). pp. 95-107. ISSN 0936-577X http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01489 |
| spellingShingle | TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) Khan, Najeebullah Pour, Sahar Hadi Shahid, Shamsuddin Ismail, Tarmizi Ahmed, Kamal Chung, Eun Sung Nawaz, Nadeem Wang, Xiaojun Spatial distribution of secular trends in annual and seasonal precipitation over Pakistan |
| title | Spatial distribution of secular trends in annual and seasonal precipitation over Pakistan |
| title_full | Spatial distribution of secular trends in annual and seasonal precipitation over Pakistan |
| title_fullStr | Spatial distribution of secular trends in annual and seasonal precipitation over Pakistan |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatial distribution of secular trends in annual and seasonal precipitation over Pakistan |
| title_short | Spatial distribution of secular trends in annual and seasonal precipitation over Pakistan |
| title_sort | spatial distribution of secular trends in annual and seasonal precipitation over pakistan |
| topic | TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) |
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