Forecasting on the crude palm oil production in Malaysia using SARIMA model
Today, accurate prediction on the seasonal trend of the crude palm oil production is critical for the government and agriculturist management to aid in decision-making. The study aims to forecast the Malaysia crude palm oil production by using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average mo...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Conference or Workshop Item |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2021
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://eprints.utm.my/95681/1/SitiAmnahTayib2021_ForecastingontheCrudePalmOilProduction.pdf |
| _version_ | 1796866068301479936 |
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| author | Mohd. Tayib, S. A. Mohd. Nor, S. R. Norrulashikin, S. M. |
| author_facet | Mohd. Tayib, S. A. Mohd. Nor, S. R. Norrulashikin, S. M. |
| author_sort | Mohd. Tayib, S. A. |
| collection | ePrints |
| description | Today, accurate prediction on the seasonal trend of the crude palm oil production is critical for the government and agriculturist management to aid in decision-making. The study aims to forecast the Malaysia crude palm oil production by using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model. The monthly data of Malaysia crude palm oil production were obtained from Malaysian Palm Oil Board, from January 2014 until September 2019. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model was applied to the data by using the Box-Jenkins approach. Based on the adequacy checking and accuracy testing, SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 is the best fitted model for the Malaysia crude palm oil production. As a result of the findings, the SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 model appears to be the best choice for decision makers to make reliable and accurate long-term forecasts on Malaysia crude palm oil production. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-05T21:06:40Z |
| format | Conference or Workshop Item |
| id | utm.eprints-95681 |
| institution | Universiti Teknologi Malaysia - ePrints |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-05T21:06:40Z |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | utm.eprints-956812022-05-31T13:04:34Z http://eprints.utm.my/95681/ Forecasting on the crude palm oil production in Malaysia using SARIMA model Mohd. Tayib, S. A. Mohd. Nor, S. R. Norrulashikin, S. M. QA Mathematics Today, accurate prediction on the seasonal trend of the crude palm oil production is critical for the government and agriculturist management to aid in decision-making. The study aims to forecast the Malaysia crude palm oil production by using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model. The monthly data of Malaysia crude palm oil production were obtained from Malaysian Palm Oil Board, from January 2014 until September 2019. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model was applied to the data by using the Box-Jenkins approach. Based on the adequacy checking and accuracy testing, SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 is the best fitted model for the Malaysia crude palm oil production. As a result of the findings, the SARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 model appears to be the best choice for decision makers to make reliable and accurate long-term forecasts on Malaysia crude palm oil production. 2021 Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed application/pdf en http://eprints.utm.my/95681/1/SitiAmnahTayib2021_ForecastingontheCrudePalmOilProduction.pdf Mohd. Tayib, S. A. and Mohd. Nor, S. R. and Norrulashikin, S. M. (2021) Forecasting on the crude palm oil production in Malaysia using SARIMA model. In: 28th Simposium Kebangsaan Sains Matematik, SKSM 2021, 28 July 2021 - 29 July 2021, Kuantan, Pahang, Virtual. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1988/1/012106 |
| spellingShingle | QA Mathematics Mohd. Tayib, S. A. Mohd. Nor, S. R. Norrulashikin, S. M. Forecasting on the crude palm oil production in Malaysia using SARIMA model |
| title | Forecasting on the crude palm oil production in Malaysia using SARIMA model |
| title_full | Forecasting on the crude palm oil production in Malaysia using SARIMA model |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting on the crude palm oil production in Malaysia using SARIMA model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting on the crude palm oil production in Malaysia using SARIMA model |
| title_short | Forecasting on the crude palm oil production in Malaysia using SARIMA model |
| title_sort | forecasting on the crude palm oil production in malaysia using sarima model |
| topic | QA Mathematics |
| url | http://eprints.utm.my/95681/1/SitiAmnahTayib2021_ForecastingontheCrudePalmOilProduction.pdf |
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