An empirical investigation on different methods of economic growth rate forecast and its behavior from fifteen countries across five continents
Our empirical results show that we can predict GDP growth rate more accurately in continent with fewer large economies, compared to smaller economies like Malaysia. This difficulty is very likely positively correlated with subsidy or social security policies.The stage of economic development and lev...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Conference or Workshop Item |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2012
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://repo.uum.edu.my/id/eprint/12413/1/document%2816%29.pdf |
| _version_ | 1825803004158148608 |
|---|---|
| author | Yip, Chee Yin Lim, Hock Eam |
| author_facet | Yip, Chee Yin Lim, Hock Eam |
| author_sort | Yip, Chee Yin |
| collection | UUM |
| description | Our empirical results show that we can predict GDP growth rate more accurately in continent with fewer large economies, compared to smaller economies like Malaysia. This difficulty is very likely positively correlated with subsidy or social security policies.The stage of economic development and level of competiveness also appears to have interactive effects on this forecast stability.These results are generally independent of the forecasting procedures. Countries with high stability in their economic growth, forecasting by model selection is better than model averaging. Overall forecast weight averaging (FWA) is a better forecasting procedure in most countries.FWA also outperforms simple model averaging (SMA) and has the same forecasting ability as Bayesian model averaging (BMA) in almost all countries. |
| first_indexed | 2024-07-04T05:49:50Z |
| format | Conference or Workshop Item |
| id | uum-12413 |
| institution | Universiti Utara Malaysia |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-07-04T05:49:50Z |
| publishDate | 2012 |
| record_format | eprints |
| spelling | uum-124132014-10-23T07:13:34Z https://repo.uum.edu.my/id/eprint/12413/ An empirical investigation on different methods of economic growth rate forecast and its behavior from fifteen countries across five continents Yip, Chee Yin Lim, Hock Eam HB Economic Theory Our empirical results show that we can predict GDP growth rate more accurately in continent with fewer large economies, compared to smaller economies like Malaysia. This difficulty is very likely positively correlated with subsidy or social security policies.The stage of economic development and level of competiveness also appears to have interactive effects on this forecast stability.These results are generally independent of the forecasting procedures. Countries with high stability in their economic growth, forecasting by model selection is better than model averaging. Overall forecast weight averaging (FWA) is a better forecasting procedure in most countries.FWA also outperforms simple model averaging (SMA) and has the same forecasting ability as Bayesian model averaging (BMA) in almost all countries. 2012-09 Conference or Workshop Item PeerReviewed application/pdf en https://repo.uum.edu.my/id/eprint/12413/1/document%2816%29.pdf Yip, Chee Yin and Lim, Hock Eam (2012) An empirical investigation on different methods of economic growth rate forecast and its behavior from fifteen countries across five continents. In: International Conference on Fundamental and Applied Sciences 2012, 12th to 14th June 2012, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4757500 doi:10.1063/1.4757500 doi:10.1063/1.4757500 |
| spellingShingle | HB Economic Theory Yip, Chee Yin Lim, Hock Eam An empirical investigation on different methods of economic growth rate forecast and its behavior from fifteen countries across five continents |
| title | An empirical investigation on different methods of economic growth rate forecast and its behavior from fifteen countries across five continents |
| title_full | An empirical investigation on different methods of economic growth rate forecast and its behavior from fifteen countries across five continents |
| title_fullStr | An empirical investigation on different methods of economic growth rate forecast and its behavior from fifteen countries across five continents |
| title_full_unstemmed | An empirical investigation on different methods of economic growth rate forecast and its behavior from fifteen countries across five continents |
| title_short | An empirical investigation on different methods of economic growth rate forecast and its behavior from fifteen countries across five continents |
| title_sort | empirical investigation on different methods of economic growth rate forecast and its behavior from fifteen countries across five continents |
| topic | HB Economic Theory |
| url | https://repo.uum.edu.my/id/eprint/12413/1/document%2816%29.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT yipcheeyin anempiricalinvestigationondifferentmethodsofeconomicgrowthrateforecastanditsbehaviorfromfifteencountriesacrossfivecontinents AT limhockeam anempiricalinvestigationondifferentmethodsofeconomicgrowthrateforecastanditsbehaviorfromfifteencountriesacrossfivecontinents AT yipcheeyin empiricalinvestigationondifferentmethodsofeconomicgrowthrateforecastanditsbehaviorfromfifteencountriesacrossfivecontinents AT limhockeam empiricalinvestigationondifferentmethodsofeconomicgrowthrateforecastanditsbehaviorfromfifteencountriesacrossfivecontinents |