Modeling for growth and forecasting of pulse production in Bangladesh
The present study was carried out to estimate growth pattern and examine the best ARIMA model to efficiently forecasting pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production in Bangladesh.It appeared that the time series data for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea were 1st order homogenous stationary...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MAXWELL Science Publication
2013
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| Online Access: | https://repo.uum.edu.my/id/eprint/12825/1/5587.pdf |
| _version_ | 1825803073564442624 |
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| author | Rahman, Niaz Md. Farhat Rahman, Mohammad Mijanur Baten, Md Azizul |
| author_facet | Rahman, Niaz Md. Farhat Rahman, Mohammad Mijanur Baten, Md Azizul |
| author_sort | Rahman, Niaz Md. Farhat |
| collection | UUM |
| description | The present study was carried out to estimate growth pattern and examine the best ARIMA model to efficiently forecasting pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production in Bangladesh.It appeared that the time series data for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea were 1st order homogenous stationary.Two types of models namely Box-Jenkins type Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and deterministic type growth models, are examined to identify the best forecasting models for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production in Bangladesh.The study revealed that the best models were ARIMA (1, 1 and 1), ARIMA (0, 1 and 0) and ARIMA (1, 1 and 3) for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production, respectively.Among the deterministic type
growth models, the cubic model is best for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production. The analysis indicated that short-term forecasts were more efficient for ARIMA models compared to the deterministic models.The production uncertainty of pulse could be minimized if production were forecasted well and necessary steps were taken against losses.The findings of this study would be more useful for policy makers, researchers as well as producers in order to forecast future national pulse production more accurately in the short run. |
| first_indexed | 2024-07-04T05:50:56Z |
| format | Article |
| id | uum-12825 |
| institution | Universiti Utara Malaysia |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-07-04T05:50:56Z |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| publisher | MAXWELL Science Publication |
| record_format | eprints |
| spelling | uum-128252014-12-17T07:42:16Z https://repo.uum.edu.my/id/eprint/12825/ Modeling for growth and forecasting of pulse production in Bangladesh Rahman, Niaz Md. Farhat Rahman, Mohammad Mijanur Baten, Md Azizul QA76 Computer software The present study was carried out to estimate growth pattern and examine the best ARIMA model to efficiently forecasting pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production in Bangladesh.It appeared that the time series data for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea were 1st order homogenous stationary.Two types of models namely Box-Jenkins type Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and deterministic type growth models, are examined to identify the best forecasting models for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production in Bangladesh.The study revealed that the best models were ARIMA (1, 1 and 1), ARIMA (0, 1 and 0) and ARIMA (1, 1 and 3) for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production, respectively.Among the deterministic type growth models, the cubic model is best for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production. The analysis indicated that short-term forecasts were more efficient for ARIMA models compared to the deterministic models.The production uncertainty of pulse could be minimized if production were forecasted well and necessary steps were taken against losses.The findings of this study would be more useful for policy makers, researchers as well as producers in order to forecast future national pulse production more accurately in the short run. MAXWELL Science Publication 2013 Article PeerReviewed application/pdf en https://repo.uum.edu.my/id/eprint/12825/1/5587.pdf Rahman, Niaz Md. Farhat and Rahman, Mohammad Mijanur and Baten, Md Azizul (2013) Modeling for growth and forecasting of pulse production in Bangladesh. Research Journal of Applied Sciences, Engineering and Technology, 5 (24). pp. 5578-5587. ISSN 2040-7459 http://maxwellsci.com/jp/abstract.php?jid=RJASET&no=316&abs=14 |
| spellingShingle | QA76 Computer software Rahman, Niaz Md. Farhat Rahman, Mohammad Mijanur Baten, Md Azizul Modeling for growth and forecasting of pulse production in Bangladesh |
| title | Modeling for growth and forecasting of pulse production in Bangladesh |
| title_full | Modeling for growth and forecasting of pulse production in Bangladesh |
| title_fullStr | Modeling for growth and forecasting of pulse production in Bangladesh |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling for growth and forecasting of pulse production in Bangladesh |
| title_short | Modeling for growth and forecasting of pulse production in Bangladesh |
| title_sort | modeling for growth and forecasting of pulse production in bangladesh |
| topic | QA76 Computer software |
| url | https://repo.uum.edu.my/id/eprint/12825/1/5587.pdf |
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