Assessing the long-term impact of climate change on olive crops and olive fly in Andalusia, Spain, through climate indices and return period analysis by M. Gratsea, K.V. Varotsos, J. López-Nevado, S. López-Feria, C. Giannakopoulos

“…Three threshold-based temperature related indices (SPR32, SU36, SU40) as well as mean temperature and precipitation related climatic indices (SPRTX, WINRR) have been calculated, revealing increasing changes in the near and distant future and pointing out the challenges faced by the olive sector due to climate change; a robust increase of the threshold-based indices are found in central and northern Andalusia, mainly in the provinces of Seville, Cordoba and Jaen. Although the changes of the precipitation-related index are less pronounced for the near future, robust decreases are projected for the distant future period under a high emission scenario. …”
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