Published 2014
“…Electricity load demand is influenced by many factors, such as weather, economic, social activities and etc.The relation between load demand and the independent variables is complex and it is not always possible to fit the load
curve using statistical models.The complexity and uncertainties of this problem appear suitable for fuzzy methodologies.Hence, the Fuzzy approach was used to forecast electricity load demand.Previous findings showed festive celebration has effect on shortterm electricity load forecasting.Being a multi culture country Malaysia has many major
festive celebrations (EidulFitri,
Chinese New Year, Deepavali and etc.) but they are moving holidays due to non-fixed dates on the Gregorian
calendar.Therefore, the performance of fuzzy approach in forecasting electricity loads when considering the presence of moving holidays was studied.Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was estimated using simulated data by including model simplification concept (manual or
automatic), day types (weekdays or weekend), public holidays and lags of electricity
load.The result indicated that day types, public holidays and several lags of electricity
load were significant in the model.Overall, model simplification improves fuzzy performance due to less variables and rules.…”
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Monograph