A nonreactive measure of inferential beliefs by Kardes, Frank R.

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Reliance on emotion promotes belief in fake news by Martel, Cameron, Pennycook, Gordon, Rand, David Gertler

“…We found both correlational and causal evidence that reliance on emotion increases belief in fake news: self-reported use of emotion was positively associated with belief in fake (but not real) news, and inducing reliance on emotion resulted in greater belief in fake (but not real) news stories compared to a control or to inducing reliance on reason. …”
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Heterogeneous Beliefs, Rare Disasters, and Asset Pricing by Chen, Hui, Joslin, Scott Stephen Walter, Tran, Ngoc-Khanh

“…We illustrate the effects of heterogeneous beliefs about disasters on the equity premium and individual agents’ trading activities. …”
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Rare Disasters and Risk Sharing with Heterogeneous Beliefs by Chen, Hui, Joslin, Scott Stephen Walter, Tran, Ngoc-Khanh

“…The model also helps reconcile the difference in the amount of disaster risk implied by financial markets and international macroeconomic data, and provides caution to the approach of extracting disaster probabilities from asset prices, which will disproportionately reflect the beliefs of a small group of optimists. Finally, our model predicts an inverse U-shaped relation between the equity premium and the size of the disaster insurance market.…”
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Optimal Time-Inconsistent Beliefs: Misplanning, Procrastination, and Commitment by Brunnermeier, Markus K., Papakonstantinou, Filippos, Parker, Jonathan A.

“…We develop a structural theory of beliefs and behavior that relaxes the assumption of time consistency in beliefs. …”
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Bayesian or biased? Analytic thinking and political belief updating by Tappin, Ben M, Pennycook, Gordon, Rand, David G

“…In particular, they tend to (i) focus on people's worldviews and political identities, at the expense of their other, more specific prior beliefs, (ii) lack direct comparison with a politically unbiased benchmark, and (iii) focus on people's judgments of new information, rather than on their posterior beliefs following exposure to the information. …”
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Fake news, fast and slow: Deliberation reduces belief in false (but not true) news headlines by Rand, David Gertler

“…Our data suggest that, in the context of fake news, deliberation facilitates accurate belief formation and not partisan bias.…”
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Research note: Examining false beliefs about voter fraud in the wake of the 2020 Presidential Election by Pennycook, Gordon, Rand, David G

“…Here we report a sur-vey exploring belief in these false claims that was conducted three days after Biden was declared the winner. …”
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Beliefs about COVID-19 in Canada, the U.K., and the U.S.A.: A novel test of political polarization and motivated reasoning by Pennycook, Gordon, McPhetres, Jonathon, Bago, Bence, Rand, David Gertler

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Are those who believe in God really more prosocial? by Stagnaro, Michael N, Arechar, Antonio A, Rand, David G

“…Study 2 (N = 2334) included the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) to examine whether this relationship could be explained by intuitive cognitive style driving both belief and prosociality. Study 2 replicated the correlation between belief and giving, r =.106, and found CRT to be negatively correlated with both belief, r = −.229, and giving, r = −.174. …”
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Cross-cultural support for a link between analytic thinking and disbelief in god: Evidence from India and the United Kingdom by Stagnaro, MN, Ross, RM, Pennycook, G, Rand, DG

“…A substantial body of evidence suggests that favoring reason over intuition (employing an analytic cognitive style) is associated with reduced belief in God. In the current work, we address outstanding issues in this literature with two studies examining the relationship between analytic cognitive style (as measured by performance on the Cognitive Reflection Test) and belief in God. …”
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Sincere or motivated? Partisan bias in advice-taking by Zhang, Yunhao, Rand, David G.

“…Further supporting the notion that the stated beliefs are sincere, raising the stakes of the belief elicitation of relative partisan competence does not affect the stated beliefs. …”
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Two-Sided Learning and the Ratchet Principle by Cisternas Leyton, Gonzalo Sebastian

“…The long-run player can nevertheless control the evolution of this signal, and thus affect the market’s belief. The public signal has an additive structure, and noise is Brownian. …”
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Sticky Expectations and the Profitability Anomaly by BOUCHAUD, JEAN-PHILIPPE, KRÜGER, PHILIPP, LANDIER, AUGUSTIN, THESMAR, DAVID

“…In our model, investors forecast future profits using a signal and sticky belief dynamics. In this model, past profits forecast future returns (the profitability anomaly). …”
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Decision Analysis from a Neo-Calvinist Point of View [book chapter] by Prelec, Drazen

“…Diagnostic significance refers to information revealed by an irrevocable act, information about some underlying collective value or belief. Decisions, especially those that break with precedent, can expose the tradeoffs between competing values, tradeoffs that society tacitly endorses. …”
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Loan Originations and Defaults in the Mortgage Crisis: The Role of the Middle Class by Adelino, Manuel, Schoar, Antoinette, Severino, Felipe

“…This paper highlights the importance of middle-class and high-FICO borrowers for the mortgage crisis. Contrary to popular belief, which focuses on subprime and poor borrowers, we show that mortgage originations increased for borrowers across all income levels and FICO scores. …”
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The Psychology of Fake News by Pennycook, Gordon, Rand, David G

“…Contrary to a common narrative whereby politics drives susceptibility to fake news, people are ‘better’ at discerning truth from falsehood (despite greater overall belief) when evaluating politically concordant news. …”
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Real options signaling games with applications to corporate finance by Grenadier, Steven R., Malenko, Andrey

“…We study games in which the decision to exercise an option is a signal of private information to outsiders, whose beliefs affect the utility of the decision-maker. …”
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Practice what you preach: Credibility-enhancing displays and the growth of open science by Kraft-Todd, Gordon T, Rand, David Gertler

“…We formulate a solution based on the theory of credibility-enhancing displays: advocates who are known to themselves practice the behavior they are advocating for (particularly if they are prestigious) are more effective at convincing others—specifically because their actions provide an honest signal of their belief in the behavior's value. Thus, advocates for open science practices should find ways to engage in those practices visibly and often.…”
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The New Great Debate about Unionism and Collective Bargaining in U.S. State and Local Governments by Kochan, Thomas Anton, Lewin, David, Keefe, Jeffrey

“…Recently some state and local governments in the United States have sharply reduced or eliminated employee unionism and bargaining rights in the belief that their fiscal adversity stems mainly from overcompensation of public employees caused by collective bargaining. …”
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