Control fast or control smart: when should invading pathogens be controlled? by Thompson, RN, Gilligan, C, Cunniffe, N

“… The intuitive response to an invading pathogen is to start disease management as rapidly as possible, since this would be expected to minimise the future impacts of disease. …”

Will an outbreak exceed available resources for control? Estimating the risk from invading pathogens using practical definitions of a severe epidemic by Thompson, RN, Gilligan, CA, Cunniffe, NJ

The impact of cross-reactive immunity on the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants by Thompson, RN, Southall, E, Daon, Y, Lovell-Read, FA, Iwami, S, Thompson, CP, Obolski, U

“…We use mathematical modelling to explore the risk that the novel variant invades the population and causes a large number of cases, as opposed to fading out with few cases. …”

Evaluating strategies for spatial allocation of vaccines based on risk and centrality by Singer, BJ, Thompson, RN, Bonsall, M

“…When vaccinating a large population in response to an invading pathogen, it is often necessary to prioritize some individuals to be vaccinated first. …”

Host behaviour driven by awareness of infection risk amplifies the chance of superspreading events by Parag, KV, Thompson, RN

“…We show why collecting data linking host behaviour and event attendance is essential for accurately assessing the risks posed by invading pathogens in emerging stages of outbreaks.…”

Improved inference of time-varying reproduction numbers during infectious disease outbreaks by Thompson, RN, Stockwin, JE, van Gaalen, RD, Polonsky, JA, Kamvar, ZN, Demarsh, PA, Dahlqwist, E, Li, S, Miguel, E, Jombart, T, Lessler, J, Cauchemez, S, Cori, A

“…Our tool is easy to apply for assessing the transmission potential, and hence informing control, during future outbreaks of a wide range of invading pathogens.…”

A direct comparison of methods for assessing the threat from emerging infectious diseases in seasonally varying environments by Kaye, AR, Hart, WS, Bromiley, J, Iwami, S, Thompson, RN

“…In line with previous research, we demonstrate that, if a pathogen is likely to either invade the population or fade out on a fast timescale compared to changes in environmental conditions, the IER closely matches the CER. …”

Using ‘sentinel’ plants to improve early detection of invasive plant pathogens by Lovell-Read, F, Parnell, SR, Cunniffe, NJ, Thompson, RN

“…An important challenge in plant disease management is achieving early detection of invading pathogens, which requires effective surveillance through the implementation of appropriate monitoring programmes. …”