Temperature, carbon dioxide and methane by Hambler, C, Henderson, PA

“…1) Globally-representative monthly rates of change of atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane are compared with global rates of change of sea ice and with Arctic and Antarctic air temperatures. 2) Carbon dioxide is very strongly correlated with sea ice dynamics, with the carbon dioxide rate at Mauna Loa lagging sea ice extent rate by 7 months. 3) Methane is very strongly correlated with sea ice dynamics, with the global (and Mauna Loa) methane rate lagging sea ice extent rate by 5 months. 4) Sea ice melt rate peaks in very tight synchrony with temperature in each Hemisphere. 5) The very high synchrony of the two gases is most parsimoniously explained by a common causality acting in both Hemispheres. 6) Results are consistent with a proposed role of a high-latitude temperature-dependent abiotic variable such as sea ice in the annual cycles of carbon dioxide and methane. 7) If sea ice does not drive the net flux of these gases, it is a highly precise proxy for whatever does. 8) Potential mechanisms should be investigated urgently.…”

Detecting volcanic eruptions in temperature reconstructions by designed break-indicator saturation by Hendry, D, Schneider, L, Smerdon, J

“…Our technique demonstrates that historic volcanic eruptions can be statistically detected without prior knowledge of their occurrence or magnitude- and hence may prove useful for estimating the past impact of volcanic events using proxy-reconstructions of hemispheric or global mean temperature, leading to an improved understanding of the effect of stratospheric aerosols on temperatures. …”

Optimal carbon pricing in general equilibrium: temperature caps and stranded assets in an extended annual DSGE model by Van Der Ploeg, F, Rezai, A

“…We then simplify the GHKT model by modelling temperature as cumulative emissions and calibrating it to Burke et al. (2015) damages. …”

Identifying the causal role of CO2 during the Ice Ages by Castle, J, Hendry, D

“…We investigate past climate variability over the Ice Ages, where a simultaneous-equations system is developed to characterize land ice volume, temperature and atmospheric CO2 levels as non-linear functions of measures of the Earth's orbital path round the Sun. …”

Sea ice and carbon dioxide by Hambler, C, Henderson, PA

“…High solubility of gas in cold sea ice meltwater and dissolution of calcium carbonate likely contribute to the peak net monthly sink rate of CO₂. 4) The global annual mean Lower Tropospheric temperature anomaly has high predictive value for annual CO₂ changes, consistent with marine outgassing (and possibly vertical transport mediated by sea ice). 5) The global carbon cycle is poorly understood, with abiotic factors likely dominating biotic fluxes - and little scope for substantive human involvement in the annual cycle. 6) A new investigative paradigm is required in which atmospheric CO₂ level is a response variable of temperature or an unknown covariate. 7) Climate predictions and attributions must be revisited. 8) The policy implications are as significant as the relationship between sea ice and CO₂ rates.…”

Destructive behavior, judgment, and economic decision-making under thermal stress by Almås, I, Auffhammer, M, Bold, T, Bolliger, I, Dembo, A, Hsiang, S, Kitamura, S, Miguel, E, Pickmans, R

“…Accumulating evidence indicates that environmental temperature substantially affects economic outcomes and violence, but the reasons for this linkage are not well understood. …”

Climate policies under climate model uncertainty: max-min and min-max regret by Van der Ploeg, R, Rezai, A

“…Temperature responses and optimal climate policies depend crucially on the choice of a particular climate model. …”

Energy transition: modelling the impact on natural gas by Fulwood, M

“…The two scenarios prepared by the OIES are designed to limit the global temperature rise to well below 2 °C, one scenario which is favourable to natural gas and one which is less favourable. …”

Battery health prediction under generalized conditions using a Gaussian process transition model by Richardson, R, Osborne, M, Howey, D

“…The approach naturally incorporates varying current, voltage and temperature inputs, crucial for enabling real world application. …”

Some fallacies in econometric modelling of climate change by Hendry, D, Pretis, F

“…We demonstrate major flaws in the statistical analysis of Beenstock, Reingewertz and Paldor (2012), discrediting their initial claims as to the different degrees integrability of CO2 and temperature.…”

Provenance regions for Pinus caribaea Morelet and Pinus oocarpa Schiede within the Republic of Honduras, C.A.: a preliminary delineation by Robbins, A, Hughes, C

“…Further division has taken into account other environmental factors such as rainfall, temperature and human activities, and also genetic data. …”

Decarbonization and industrial demand for gas in Europe by Honore, A

“…There are many uncertainties on what can be done, when, and at what cost, but fossil fuels can be more easily displaced by traditional renewable energies and heat pumps for low-temperature applications. These technologies already exist and can be deployed in the coming years if adequate support is in place. …”

Anthropogenic Influences on Atmospheric CO2. by Hendry, D, Pretis, F

“…We find that vegetation, temperature and other natural factors alone cannot explain the trend or the variation in CO2 growth. …”

Anthropogenic influences on atmospheric CO2 by Hendry, D, Pretis, F

“…We find that vegetation, temperature and other natural factors alone cannot explain the trend or the variation in CO2 growth. …”

Sea ice and methane by Hambler, C, Henderson, PA

“…1) The annual cycle of atmospheric methane in southern high latitudes is extremely highly correlated with Antarctic sea ice extent. 2) The annual cycle of atmospheric methane in the Arctic is highly correlated with Antarctic or Arctic plus Antarctic sea ice extent. 3) We propose the global annual cycle of atmospheric methane is largely driven by Antarctic sea ice dynamics, with relatively stronger influence from other fluxes (probably the biota) in the Northern Hemisphere. 4) We propose degassing during sea ice freeze and temperature dependent solubility in the ocean dominate the annual methane cycle. 5) Results provide evidence that carbon cycle pathways, parameters and predictions must be reassessed.…”

Climate clubs and positive carbon pricing for a low-carbon Bretton Woods by Stua, M, Nolden, C, Coulon, M

“…If global average temperature rise is to be limited to 2°C or even 1.5°C below pre-industrial levels this century, we require a paradigm shift in the way we value and exchange mitigations of Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHGs). …”

Climate policy and stranded carbon assets: a financial perspective by Van der Ploeg, R, Rezai, A

“…For a given carbon budget, an immediate carbon tax is the first-best response but delaying the carbon tax or a renewable energy subsidy to meet the same temperature target are preferred by shareholders because they introduce Green Paradox effects and protect the profitability of existing capital.…”

Asset diversification versus climate action by Hambel, C, Kraft, H, van der Ploeg, R

“…Climate disasters, which are more likely to occur sooner as temperature rises, significantly increase risk premia on financial assets.…”

The Role of Natural Gas in the Dutch Energy Transition: Towards low-carbon electricity supply by van Foreest, F

“…According to the IPCC, without serious measures, CO2 emissions will increase by 60% in the coming 25 years, which could lead to a global temperature rise of 2-4°C.2 A significant and structural reduction of CO2 emissions will require a fundamental shift from the current fossil fuel-based energy supply towards a sustainable and efficient energy system. …”

Abrupt positive feedback and the social cost of carbon by Van der Ploeg, R

“…This component increases with the sensitivity of the hazard to temperature or the stock of atmospheric carbon. If the hazard of a catastrophe is constant, no correction is needed of the usual Pigouvian tax. …”