How COVID-19 affects voting for incumbents: Evidence from local elections in France. by Davide Morisi, Héloïse Cloléry, Guillaume Kon Kam King, Max Schaub

“…We address this question by investigating voters' reactions to the early spread of COVID-19 in the 2020 French municipal elections. Using a novel, fine-grained measure of the circulation of the virus based on excess-mortality data, we find that support for incumbents increased in areas that were particularly hard hit by the virus. …”
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