An open workflow to gain insights about low-likelihood high impact weather events from initialised predictions by Kelder, T, Marjoribanks, TI, Slater, LJE, Prudhomme, C, Wilby, RL, Wagemann, J, Dunstone, N

“…Demonstrating the workflow using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) SEAS5, we find that the 2020 March–May Siberian heatwave was predicted by one of the ensemble members; and that the record-shattering August 2020 California-Mexico temperatures were part of a strong increasing trend. …”