What chance of a sudden stratospheric warming in the southern hemisphere? by L Wang, S C Hardiman, P E Bett, R E Comer, C Kent, A A Scaife

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Future precipitation projections for Brazil and tropical South America from a convection-permitting climate simulation by Ron Kahana, Kate Halladay, Lincoln Muniz Alves, Robin Chadwick, Robin Chadwick, Andrew J. Hartley

“…The South America Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Model experiment (SA-CPRCM) examines climate change effects in convection-permitting simulations at 4.5 km resolution, on climate time scales (10 year present-day and 10-year future RCP8.5 around 2100), over a domain covering most of South America, using the Met Office Unified Model (UM) convection-permitting RCM.Under the RCP8.5 scenario, precipitation in the CPRCM decreases, becomes less frequent and more seasonal over the Eastern Amazon region. …”
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Evaluation of a Prototype Broadband Water-Vapour Profiling Differential Absorption Lidar at Cardington, UK by Catherine Gaffard, Zhihong Li, Dawn Harrison, Raisa Lehtinen, Reijo Roininen

“…For a one-month period in summer 2020, a prototype Vaisala broadband differential absorption lidar (BB-DIAL) was deployed at a Met Office research site. It was compared with in-situ observations of humidity (93 radiosonde ascents and 27 of uncrewed aerial vehicle flights) and the Met Office 1.5 km resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model: UK Variable resolution model (UKV). …”
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Satellite-based time-series of sea-surface temperature since 1980 for climate applications by Owen Embury, Christopher J. Merchant, Simon A. Good, Nick A. Rayner, Jacob L. Høyer, Chris Atkinson, Thomas Block, Emy Alerskans, Kevin J. Pearson, Mark Worsfold, Niall McCarroll, Craig Donlon

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Climate change alters the Indian Ocean Dipole and weakens its North Atlantic teleconnection by David R. Fereday, Jeff R. Knight, Adam A. Scaife

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The assessment of change in human heat stress risk in Brazil projected by the CMIP6 models by Laila K Gohar, Dan Bernie, Damian Wilson, Kate Willett, Richard Betts

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Quantifying the impact of current and future concentrations of air pollutants on respiratory disease risk in England by Francesca Pannullo, Duncan Lee, Lucy Neal, Mohit Dalvi, Paul Agnew, Fiona M. O’Connor, Sabyasachi Mukhopadhyay, Sujit Sahu, Christophe Sarran

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Using reference radiosondes to characterise NWP model uncertainty for improved satellite calibration and validation by F. Carminati, S. Migliorini, B. Ingleby, W. Bell, H. Lawrence, S. Newman, J. Hocking, A. Smith

“…</p> <p>A total of 1 year of GRUAN radiosondes and matching NWP fields from the Met Office and ECMWF have been processed and analysed for the purposes of demonstration of capability. …”
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Transmission pathways for the stem rust pathogen into Central and East Asia and the role of the alternate host, barberry by Catherine D Bradshaw, Deborah L Hemming, Tamás Mona, William Thurston, Marion K Seier, David P Hodson, Jacob W Smith, Dominic Eyre, Tai-Guo Liu, Bryony Taylor, Jemma CS Davie, Steffi Urhausen, Thomas Crocker, Sarah C Millington, Matthew C Hort, Feng Zhang, Hongmei Li, Christopher A Gilligan

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Modelling soil moisture for a grassland and a woodland site in south-east England by E. Blyth, E. Blyth

“…This paper describes a comparison between two soil moisture prediction models. One is MORECS (Met Office Rainfall and Evaporation Calculation Scheme), the Met Office soil moisture model that is used by agriculture, flood modellers and weather forecasters to initialise their models. …”
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Convection in future winter storms over Northern Europe by Ségolène Berthou, Malcolm J Roberts, Benoît Vannière, Nikolina Ban, Danijel Belušić, Cécile Caillaud, Thomas Crocker, Hylke de Vries, Andreas Dobler, Dan Harris, Elizabeth J Kendon, Oskar Landgren, Colin Manning

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ENSO and QBO modulation of the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and Eurasian winter climate by Xuan Ma, Lei Wang, Doug Smith, Leon Hermanson, Rosie Eade, Nick Dunstone, Steven Hardiman, Jiankai Zhang

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Variability conceals emerging trend in 100yr projections of UK local hourly rainfall extremes by Elizabeth J. Kendon, Erich M. Fischer, Chris J. Short

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Fire, environmental and anthropogenic controls on pantropical tree cover by Douglas I. Kelley, France Gerard, Ning Dong, Chantelle Burton, Arthur Argles, Guangqi Li, Rhys Whitley, Toby R. Marthews, Eddy Roberston, Graham P. Weedon, Gitta Lasslop, Richard J. Ellis, Ioannis Bistinas, Elmar Veenendaal

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Quantifying the contribution of an individual to making extreme weather events more likely by Fraser C Lott, Andrew Ciavarella, John J Kennedy, Andrew D King, Peter A Stott, Simon F B Tett, Dongqian Wang

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QBO Phase Synchronization in CMIP6 Historical Simulations Attributed to Ozone Forcing by Neal Butchart, Martin B. Andrews, Chris D. Jones

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Tropical and stratospheric influences on winter atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic sector by Anna Maidens, Jeff R Knight, Adam A Scaife

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Assessing the chance of unprecedented dry conditions over North Brazil during El Niño events by G Kay, N J Dunstone, D M Smith, R A Betts, C Cunningham, A A Scaife

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How does the CMIP6 ensemble change the picture for European climate projections? by T E Palmer, B B B Booth, C F McSweeney

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Understanding climate risk in future energy systems: an energy-climate data hackathon by Fallon, JC, Bloomfield, HC, Brayshaw, DJ, Sparrow, SN, Wallom, DCH, Woollings, T, Brown, K, Dawkins, L, Palin, E, Houben, N, Huppmann, D, Schyska, BU

“…It was hosted by the Universities of Oxford and Reading in partnership with the UK Met Office as part of a series of themed hackathons supported by the Met Office and held in the run-up to the UN COP26 conference. …”