Working class votes and Conservative losses: solving the UKIP puzzle by Mellon, J, Evans, G

“…Opinions are divided on whether the Conservatives or Labour need to worry most about UK Independence Party (UKIP) in the 2015 General Election. How do we reconcile evidence of substantial levels of UKIP support among traditional working class voters, and in Labour constituencies, with evidence that UKIP voters report voting Conservative in 2010? …”

Introduction - issue 78

“…Since the election of Barack Obama to the presidency of the United States, energy and climate change policies have moved from the back to the front stage of federal government political actions. …”

Social Democratic Party exceptionalism and transnational policy linkages by Schleiter, P, Bohmelt, T, Ezrow, L, Lehrer, R

“…These findings have important implications for our understanding of political representation and of social democratic parties’ election strategies over the last forty years.…”

Copts, the state and the 1949–1950 al-Majlis al-Millī electoral crisis: articulating community in a time of anxiety by Bland, W

“…<p>In October 1949, the Coptic Communal Council,&nbsp;<em>al-Majlis al-Millī</em>, failed to run elections as scheduled in the midst of conflict with the clergy. …”

From dusk to dawn: local party organization and party success of right-wing extremism by Dinas, E, Georgiadou, V, Konstantinidis, I, Rori, L

“…We delve into this exact question, focusing on the election that marked the emergence of the Golden Dawn and permitted further electoral penetration. …”

Connecting Local Economic Decline to the Politics of Geographic Discontent: The Missing Link of Perceptions by Green, J, Jennings, W, McKay, L, Stoker, G

“…Using original survey questions in the British Election Study, we theorise five models to explain who is likely to perceive local economic decline, and why. …”

Education and nationalism: The discourse of education policy in scotland by Arnott, M, Ozga, J

“…The paper draws on critical discourse analysis to examine and discuss some of the key developments in the governing of education in Scotland since the election of the Scottish National Party (SNP) government in May 2007. …”

Are journalists today’s coal miners? The Struggle for talent and diversity in modern newsrooms – A study on journalists in Germany, Sweden, and the United Kingdom by Borchardt, A, Lück, J, Kieslich, S, Schultz, T, Simon, F

“…In the wake of Brexit, the 2016 US presidential election, the migration crisis, #MeToo and a range of other events, the news industry seems to have finally woken up to the lack of diversity within their ranks and how this lack affects their position in society and their ability to represent societies fairly and accurately.…”

Perceived government autonomy, economic evaluations, and political support during the Eurozone crisis by Devine, D

“…This article tests these arguments together at the individual level for the first time using a multilevel analysis of European Election Study data, and replicates the results with a case study of Portugal. …”

The real winner's curse by Fergusson, L, Querubin, P, Ruiz Guarin, N, Vargas, J

“…Consistent with this interpretation, we find that violence by left‐wing guerrillas and other actors is unaffected and that violence is not influenced by the victory of right‐wing or other new parties in close elections.…”

Measuring and forecasting public opinion with non-representative samples by Cerina, R

“…<p>In this doctoral thesis, I reflect on methods to leverage non-representative samples to measure and forecast public opinion in the run-up to an election. The thesis is made up of three separate papers, dealing with a number of issues around the topic of convenience samples; these issues include a) how and where to collect non-representative data, and how to enhance them with external, auxiliary sources; b) how to construct reliable and deep stratification weights, when these are not immediately available from the census, and when no single dataset contains an exhaustive set of the desired post-stratification information; c) how to optimise learning models to automate variable selection, produce accurate out-of-sample predictions, and improve fitting speed. …”

The Economic Vote by Duch, R, Stevenson, R

“…The data consist of 165 election studies conducted in 18 different countries over a 20 year time period.…”

Divided island: Haitian immigration and electoral outcomes in the Dominican Republic by ~Jaupart, P

“…Empirical evidence from election outcomes and opinion survey data suggests that citizenship, political competition and cultural identity considerations might be shaping individual attitudes towards immigrants in the DR.…”

Party preferences, individual views and mobility during the pandemic by Klymak, M, Vlandas, T

“…This research note explores this question empirically using two datasets collected before and during the Covid-19 pandemic: a daily survey covering nearly 100,000 individuals and county level mobility matched to UK 2019 general election results. At the individual level, our findings show that partisanship is strongly correlated with differences in both views and behaviours. …”

Presidents, assembly dissolution and the electoral performance of prime ministers by Schleiter, P, Morgan-Jones, E

“…Many European presidents have extensive constitutional powers to affect the timing of early parliamentary elections, which enables them to influence when incumbent governments must face the electorate. …”

Constitutional Power and Competing Risks: Monarchs, Presidents, Prime Ministers, and the Termination of East and West European Cabinets by Schleiter, P, Jones, E

“…These results alter and improve the discipline's understanding of government termination and durability, and have implications for comparative work in a range of areas, including the survival and performance of democracies, electoral accountability, opportunistic election calling, and political business cycles.…”

Economic responsiveness and the political conditioning of the electoral cycle by Pardos-Prado, S, Sagarzazu, I

“…We present a theory focused on the economy in which proximity to election day increases the incumbent’s cost of not responding to opponent attacks and subsequently decreases the incumbent’s attention to public opinion. …”

Complexity of finding equilibria of plurality voting under structured preferences by Elkind, E, Markakis, E, Obraztsova, S, Skowron, P

“…We focus on the Plurality rule, and, following the recent work of Elkind et al. [15], consider three popular tie-breaking rules (lexicographic, random-candidate, and random-voter) and two types of voters' attitude: lazy voters, who prefer to abstain when their vote cannot affect the election outcome, and truth-biased voters, who prefer to vote truthfully in such cases. …”

A swing-state theory of trade protection in the electoral college by Muuls, M

“…This paper develops an infinite-horizon, political agency model with a continuum of political districts, in which incumbent politicians can improve their re-election probability by attracting swing voters in key states through strategic trade protection. …”

The Potential of Networked Solidarity: Communication at the End of the Long Twentieth Century by Neff, G

“…This chapter argues that media and communication scholars need to update their theories for the twenty-first century. Both the election of Trump and the ‘Brexit’ referendum in the UK are case studies how twentieth century ideas about information, media and democracy are no longer sufficient to anchor contemporary media and communication scholarship. …”