The Sure-Thing Principle by Pearl Judea

“…In 1954, Jim Savage introduced the Sure Thing Principle to demonstrate that preferences among actions could constitute an axiomatic basis for a Bayesian foundation of statistical inference. …”
Get full text

The Sure-Thing Principle by Baccelli, J, Hartmann, L

“…The Sure-Thing Principle famously appears in Savage’s axiomatization of Subjective Expected Utility. …”

Real-time profit management : making your bottom line a sure thing / by 336951 Dragoo, Bob

Sure-thing vs. probabilistic charitable giving: Experimental evidence on the role of individual differences in risky and ambiguous charitable decision-making. by Philipp Schoenegger, Miguel Costa-Gomes

“…In this paper, we investigate what best explains charitable giving behaviour regarding charities that have interventions that will succeed with a quantifiable and high probability (sure-thing charities) and charities that have interventions that only have a small and hard to quantify probability of bringing about the desired end (probabilistic charities). …”
Get full text

Formalizing heuristics in decision making: a quantum probability perspective by Emmanuel ePothos, Jerome R Busemeyer

Subjects: Get full text

Quantum-Like Bayesian Networks for Modeling Decision Making by Catarina eMoreira, Andreas eWichert

Subjects: Get full text

Lord’s Paradox Revisited – (Oh Lord! Kumbaya!) by Pearl Judea

Subjects: Get full text

Moral judgments of risky choices: A moral echoing effect by Mary Parkinson, Ruth M. J. Byrne

“…Two experiments examined moral judgments about a decision-maker’s choices when he chose a sure-thing, 400 out of 600 people will be saved, or a risk, a two-thirds probability to save everyone and a one-thirds probability to save no-one. …”
Get full text

Moral judgments of risky choices: A moral echoing effect by Mary Parkinson, Ruth M. J. Byrne

“…Two experiments examined moral judgments about a decision-maker’s choices when he chose a sure-thing, 400 out of 600 people will be saved, or a risk, a two-thirds probability to save everyone and a one-thirds probability to save no-one. …”
Get full text

Counterfactuals in “agreeing to disagree” type results by Tarbush, B

“…The new version of the Sure-Thing Principle introduced here, which accounts for beliefs at counterfactual states, is also shown to sit well with the intuition of the original version proposed by Savage (1972).…”

Neural correlates of visual attention during risky decision evidence integration by John R. Purcell, Andrew Jahn, Justin M. Fine, Joshua W. Brown

“…PI activation also differentiated foveations on both risky options (rewards and losses) relative to a sure-thing option. These findings point to ACC involvement in ongoing evaluation of risky but higher value options. …”
Get full text

A Defence of the Cliché by Adolphe Haberer

“…A sure thing is that clichés have a bad reputation. Trying to define the cliché as a linguistic or stylistic category, however, leads to all sorts of difficulties, as we seem to be dealing with “matters as imprecise as the shape and size of a cloud or the beginning and end of a wave”. …”
Get full text

Decision making under hypoxia: Oxygen depletion increases risk seeking for losses but not for gains by Tommaso Antonetti, Federico Schena, Lucia Savadori, Constantinos Hadjichristidis, Stefania Pighin, Nicolao Bonini

“…For each choice they were forced to choose between a sure thing and a gamble of the same expected value. …”
Get full text

Adaptive Learning and Risk Taking by Denrell, J

“…He shows that a risk-neutral decision maker may learn to prefer a sure thing to an uncertain alternative with identical expected value and a symmetric distribution, even if the decision maker follows an optimal policy of learning. …”

A paradox for tiny probabilities and enormous values by Beckstead, N, Thomas, J

“…Reckless theories recommend giving up a sure thing, no matter how good, for an arbitrarily tiny chance of enormous gain; timid theories permit passing up an arbitrarily large potential gain to prevent a tiny increase in risk; non-transitive theories deny the principle that, if A is better than B and B is better than C, then A must be better than C. …”

Essays on information and networks by Tarbush, B

“…This was done by isolating the relevant properties of conditional probabilities that drive the original result – namely, the “Sure-Thing Principle” and “like-mindedness” – and imposing them as conditions on the decision functions of agents. …”

WHATCHA GONNA DO WITH THAT DUCK? : AND OTHER PROVOCATIONS, 2006-2012 / by Godin, Seth 261622, author, Jiwa, Bernadette 637446, compiler

Dissecting the risky-choice framing effect by Ellen Peters, Irwin P. Levin

“…Using five variants of the Asian Disease Problem, we dissected the risky-choice framing effect by requiring each participant to provide preference ratings for the full decision problem and also to provide attractiveness ratings for each of the component parts, i.e., the sure-thing option and the risky option. Consistent with previous research, more risky choices were made by respondents receiving negatively framed versions of the decision problems than by those receiving positively framed versions. …”
Get full text

Dissecting the risky-choice framing effect: Numeracy as an individual-difference factor in weighting risky and riskless options by Ellen Peters, Irwin P. Levin

“…Using five variants of the Asian Disease Problem, we dissected the risky-choice framing effect by requiring each participant to provide preference ratings for the full decision problem and also to provide attractiveness ratings for each of the component parts, i.e., the sure-thing option and the risky option. Consistent with previous research, more risky choices were made by respondents receiving negatively framed versions of the decision problems than by those receiving positively framed versions. …”
Get full text

Decision making under hypoxia: Oxygen depletion increases risk seeking for losses but not for gains by Stefania Pighin, Nicolao Bonini, Lucia Savadori, Constantinos Hadjichristidis, Tommaso Antonetti, Federico Schena

“…For each choice they were forced to choose between a sure thing and a gamble of the same expected value. …”
Get full text