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    Prediction and Source Contribution Analysis of PM<sub>2.5</sub> Using a Combined FLEXPART Model and Bayesian Method over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region in China by Lifeng Guo, Baozhang Chen, Huifang Zhang, Jingchun Fang

    Published 2021-07-01
    “…The results show that (1) the a priori estimates have a certain degree of overestimation compared with the a posteriori flux of PM<sub>2.5</sub> for most areas of BTH; (2) after optimization, the correlation coefficient (R) between the forecasted and observed PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentration increased by an average of approximately 10%, the root mean square error (RMSE) decreased by 30%, and the IOA (index of agreement) index increased by 16% at four observation sites (Aotizhongxin_Beijing, Beichenkejiyuanqu_Tianjin, Dahuoquan_Xintai, and Renmingongyuan_Zhangjiakou); and (3) the main sources of pollution at the four sites mainly originated from industrial and residential emissions, while power factory and transportation pollution accounted for only a small proportion. …”
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