Non-invasive testing for early detection of neovascular macular degeneration in unaffected second eyes of older adults: EDNA diagnostic accuracy study by Katie Banister, Jonathan A Cook, Graham Scotland, Augusto Azuara-Blanco, Beatriz Goulão, Heinrich Heimann, Rodolfo Hernández, Ruth Hogg, Charlotte Kennedy, Sobha Sivaprasad, Craig Ramsay, Usha Chakravarthy

“…Conclusions: Optical coherence tomography was the most accurate in diagnosing conversion to neovascular age-related macular degeneration in the fellow eye of patients with unilateral neovascular age-related macular degeneration. Economic modelling suggests that optical coherence tomography monitoring is cost-effective and leads to earlier diagnosis of and treatment for neovascular age-related macular degeneration in the second eye of patients being treated for neovascular age-related macular degeneration in their first eye. …”
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OPTIMA prelim: a randomised feasibility study of personalised care in the treatment of women with early breast cancer by Robert C Stein, Janet A Dunn, John MS Bartlett, Amy F Campbell, Andrea Marshall, Peter Hall, Leila Rooshenas, Adrienne Morgan, Christopher Poole, Sarah E Pinder, David A Cameron, Nigel Stallard, Jenny L Donovan, Christopher McCabe, Luke Hughes-Davies, Andreas Makris, on behalf of the OPTIMA Trial Management Group

“…Carlsbad, CA, USA)] and MammaTyper® (BioNTech Diagnostics GmbH, Mainz, Germany) categorised comparable numbers of tumours into low- or high-risk groups and/or equivalent molecular subtypes, there was only moderate agreement between tests at an individual tumour level (kappa ranges 0.33–0.60 and 0.39–0.55 for tests providing risks and subtypes, respectively). Health economics modelling showed the value of information to the NHS from further research into multiparameter testing is high irrespective of the test evaluated. …”
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CHOICE: Choosing Health Options In Chronic Care Emergencies by Elspeth Guthrie, Cara Afzal, Claire Blakeley, Amy Blakemore, Rachel Byford, Elizabeth Camacho, Tom Chan, Carolyn Chew-Graham, Linda Davies, Simon de Lusignan, Chris Dickens, Jessica Drinkwater, Graham Dunn, Cheryl Hunter, Mark Joy, Navneet Kapur, Susanne Langer, Karina Lovell, Jackie Macklin, Kevin Mackway-Jones, Dionysios Ntais, Peter Salmon, Barbara Tomenson, Jennifer Watson

“…Exploratory health economic analyses suggested that the practice-level intervention would be unlikely to be cost-effective, limiting the value of detailed health economic modelling. Limitations: The findings of this programme may not apply to all people with LTCs. …”
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Clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of foam sclerotherapy, endovenous laser ablation and surgery for varicose veins: results from the Comparison of LAser, Surgery and foa... by Julie Brittenden, Seonaidh C Cotton, Andrew Elders, Emma Tassie, Graham Scotland, Craig R Ramsay, John Norrie, Jennifer Burr, Jill Francis, Samantha Wileman, Bruce Campbell, Paul Bachoo, Ian Chetter, Michael Gough, Jonothan Earnshaw, Tim Lees, Julian Scott, Sara A Baker, Graeme MacLennan, Maria Prior, Denise Bolsover, Marion K Campbell

“…Design: A parallel-group randomised controlled trial (RCT) without blinding, and economic modelling evaluation. Setting: Eleven UK specialist vascular centres. …”
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Cost-effectiveness of using prognostic information to select women with breast cancer for adjuvant systemic therapy. by Williams, C, Brunskill, S, Altman, D, Briggs, A, Campbell, H, Clarke, M, Glanville, J, Gray, A, Harris, A, Johnston, K, Lodge, M

“…These data, along with the information gathered in the systematic reviews, informed the methodological approach adopted for the health economic modelling. An illustrative framework was developed for incorporating patient-level prediction within a health economic decision model. …”

Optimal primary care management of clinical osteoarthritis and joint pain in older people: a mixed-methods programme of systematic reviews, observational and qualitative studies, a... by Elaine Hay, Krysia Dziedzic, Nadine Foster, George Peat, Danielle van der Windt, Bernadette Bartlam, Milisa Blagojevic-Bucknall, John Edwards, Emma Healey, Melanie Holden, Rhian Hughes, Clare Jinks, Kelvin Jordan, Sue Jowett, Martyn Lewis, Christian Mallen, Andrew Morden, Elaine Nicholls, Bie Nio Ong, Mark Porcheret, Jerome Wulff, Jesse Kigozi, Raymond Oppong, Zoe Paskins, Peter Croft

“…Results: This programme provides evidence (1) that economic modelling can be used in OA to extrapolate findings of cost-effectiveness beyond the short-term outcomes of clinical trials, (2) about ways of implementing support for self-management and models of optimal primary care informed by National Institute for Health and Care Excellence recommendations, including the beneficial effects of training in a model OA consultation on GP behaviour and of pop-up screens in GP consultations on the quality of prescribing, (3) against adding enhanced interventions to current effective physiotherapy-led exercise for knee OA and (4) against screening for anxiety and depression in patients with musculoskeletal pain as an addition to current best practice for OA. …”
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Developing and evaluating packages to support implementation of quality indicators in general practice: the ASPIRE research programme, including two cluster RCTs by Robbie Foy, Thomas Willis, Liz Glidewell, Rosie McEachan, Rebecca Lawton, David Meads, Michelle Collinson, Cheryl Hunter, Claire Hulme, Robert West, Vicky Ward, Suzanne Hartley, Paul Carder, Sarah Alderson, Michael Holland, Peter Heudtlass, Daniele Bregantini, Laetitia Schmitt, Susan Clamp, Tim Stokes, Emma Ingleson, Martin Rathfelder, Stella Johnson, Judith Richardson, Bruno Rushforth, Duncan Petty, Armando Vargas-Palacios, Gemma Louch, Jane Heyhoe, Ian Watt, Amanda Farrin

“…We randomised 178 practices to implementation packages targeting either diabetes control or risky prescribing (trial 1), or blood pressure control or anticoagulation (trial 2), or to a further control (non-intervention) group, and undertook economic modelling (work package 4). In trials 1 and 2, practices randomised to the implementation package for one indicator acted as control practices for the other package, and vice versa. …”
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Optimal Outsourcing Strategy Determination and Pricing Model in Dual-Channel Supply Chain under Uncertainty by Mahboobeh Honarvar, Hossein Rezaee

“…Pricing and production decisions in a dual-channel supply chain when production costs are disrupted. <em>Economic Modelling</em>, <em>30</em>, 521-538. Tsay, A. …”
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Facilitating the transition of young people with long-term conditions through health services from childhood to adulthood: the Transition research programme by Allan Colver, Tim Rapley, Jeremy R Parr, Helen McConachie, Gail Dovey-Pearce, Ann Le Couteur, Janet E McDonagh, Caroline Bennett, Jennifer Hislop, Gregory Maniatopoulos, Kay D Mann, Hannah Merrick, Mark S Pearce, Debbie Reape, Luke Vale

“…Owing to the nature of the data, only exploratory rather than strict economic modelling was undertaken. Results and conclusions: (1) Commissioners and providers regarded transition as the responsibility of children’s services. …”
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The relationship between impact investing mechanism design and social value creation by Ware, NJ

“…</p> <p>This theory construction, together with economic modelling, points to three additional intermediate ways that mechanism design affects social value creation: via social impact measurement, via the alignment of social and financial returns, and via constraint adherence. …”

Multiparametric MRI to improve detection of prostate cancer compared with transrectal ultrasound-guided prostate biopsy alone: the PROMIS study by Louise Clare Brown, Hashim U Ahmed, Rita Faria, Ahmed El-Shater Bosaily, Rhian Gabe, Richard S Kaplan, Mahesh Parmar, Yolanda Collaco-Moraes, Katie Ward, Richard Graham Hindley, Alex Freeman, Alexander Kirkham, Robert Oldroyd, Chris Parker, Simon Bott, Nick Burns-Cox, Tim Dudderidge, Maneesh Ghei, Alastair Henderson, Rajendra Persad, Derek J Rosario, Iqbal Shergill, Mathias Winkler, Marta Soares, Eldon Spackman, Mark Sculpher, Mark Emberton

“…The limitations in the economic modelling arise from the limited evidence on the long-term outcomes of men with prostate cancer and on the sensitivity of MRI-targeted repeat biopsy. …”
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Configuration of vascular services: a multiple methods research programme by Jonathan Michaels, Emma Wilson, Ravi Maheswaran, Stephen Radley, Georgina Jones, Thai-Son Tong, Eva Kaltenthaler, Ahmed Aber, Andrew Booth, Helen Buckley Woods, James Chilcott, Rosie Duncan, Munira Essat, Edward Goka, Aoife Howard, Anju Keetharuth, Elizabeth Lumley, Shah Nawaz, Suzy Paisley, Simon Palfreyman, Edith Poku, Patrick Phillips, Gill Rooney, Praveen Thokala, Steven Thomas, Angela Tod, Nyantara Wickramasekera, Phil Shackley

“…Future work: Further evaluation of the economic models in real-world situations where local vascular service reconfiguration is under consideration and of the barriers to change where vascular services do not meet NHS recommendations for service configuration is needed. …”
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Supporting good quality, community-based end-of-life care for people living with dementia: the SEED research programme including feasibility RCT by Louise Robinson, Marie Poole, Emma McLellan, Richard Lee, Sarah Amador, Nawaraj Bhattarai, Andrew Bryant, Dorothy Coe, Anne Corbett, Catherine Exley, Claire Goodman, Zoe Gotts, Karen Harrison-Dening, Sarah Hill, Denise Howel, Susan Hrisos, Julian Hughes, Ashleigh Kernohan, Alastair Macdonald, Helen Mason, Christopher Massey, Sandra Neves, Paul Paes, Katherine Rennie, Stephen Rice, Tomos Robinson, Elizabeth Sampson, Susan Tucker, Dimitrios Tzelis, Luke Vale, Claire Bamford

“…Workstream 5 involved economic modelling studies that assessed the potential value of the SEED intervention using a contingent valuation survey of the general public (n = 1002). …”
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Primary care management of cardiovascular risk for people with severe mental illnesses: the Primrose research programme including cluster RCT by David Osborn, Alexandra Burton, Kate Walters, Lou Atkins, Thomas Barnes, Ruth Blackburn, Thomas Craig, Hazel Gilbert, Ben Gray, Sarah Hardoon, Samira Heinkel, Richard Holt, Rachael Hunter, Claire Johnston, Michael King, Judy Leibowitz, Louise Marston, Susan Michie, Richard Morris, Steve Morris, Irwin Nazareth, Rumana Omar, Irene Petersen, Robert Peveler, Vanessa Pinfold, Fiona Stevenson, Ella Zomer

“…These models performed better than published Cox Framingham models. In health economic modelling, the Primrose BMI model was most cost-effective when used as an algorithm to drive statin prescriptions. …”
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A facilitated home-based cardiac rehabilitation intervention for people with heart failure and their caregivers: a research programme including the REACH-HF RCT by Hasnain M Dalal, Rod S Taylor, Jennifer Wingham, Colin J Greaves, Kate Jolly, Chim C Lang, Russell C Davis, Karen M Smith, Patrick J Doherty, Jackie Miles, Robin van Lingen, Fiona C Warren, Susannah Sadler, Charles Abraham, Nicky Britten, Julia Frost, Melvyn Hillsdon, Sally Singh, Christopher Hayward, Victoria Eyre, Kevin Paul

“…Although the economic analysis conducted alongside the full randomised controlled trial did not produce significant differences on the EuroQol-5 Dimensions or in quality-adjusted life-years, economic modelling suggested greater cost-effectiveness of the intervention than usual care. …”
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The epidemiology, management and impact of surgical wounds healing by secondary intention: a research programme including the SWHSI feasibility RCT by Ian Chetter, Catherine Arundel, Kerry Bell, Hannah Buckley, Karl Claxton, Belen Corbacho Martin, Nicky Cullum, Jo Dumville, Caroline Fairhurst, Eileen Henderson, Karen Lamb, Judith Long, Dorothy McCaughan, Elizabeth McGinnis, Angela Oswald, Pedro Saramago Goncalves, Laura Sheard, Marta O Soares, Nikki Stubbs, David Torgerson, Nicky Welton

“…The lack of randomised controlled trial data on the relative effects of negative-pressure wound therapy in surgical wounds healing by secondary intention resulted in much of the economic modelling being based on observational data. Observational data, even with extensive adjustment, do not negate the potential for unresolved confounding to affect the results, which can reduce confidence in conclusions drawn from observational data. …”
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Ablative and non-surgical therapies for early and very early hepatocellular carcinoma: a systematic review and network meta-analysis by Ros Wade, Emily South, Sumayya Anwer, Sahar Sharif-Hurst, Melissa Harden, Helen Fulbright, Robert Hodgson, Sofia Dias, Mark Simmonds, Ian Rowe, Patricia Thornton, Alison Eastwood

“…The feasibility of undertaking economic modelling was explored. A workshop with patients and clinicians was held to discuss the findings and identify key priorities for future research. …”
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Public sector reforms and their impact on the level of corruption: A systematic review by Giulia Mugellini, Sara Della Bella, Marco Colagrossi, Giang Ly Isenring, Martin Killias

“…These results highlight the importance of going beyond economic models for explaining corruption, and considering the moral and cultural mechanisms underlying this phenomenon. …”
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Bleeding risk in patients prescribed dual antiplatelet therapy and triple therapy after coronary interventions: the ADAPTT retrospective population-based cohort studies by Harris Jessica, Pouwels Koen B, Johnson Thomas, Sterne Jonathan, Pithara Christalla, Mahadevan Kalaivani, Reeves Barney, Benedetto Umberto, Loke Yoon, Lasserson Daniel, Doble Brett, Hopewell-Kelly Noreen, Redwood Sabi, Wordsworth Sarah, Mumford Andrew, Rogers Chris, Pufulete Maria

“…Objectives The objectives were to estimate hazard ratios for bleeding for different antiplatelet and triple therapy regimens, estimate resources and the associated costs of treating bleeding events, and to extend existing economic models of the cost-effectiveness of dual antiplatelet therapy. …”
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Prehospital early warning scores for adults with suspected sepsis: the PHEWS observational cohort and decision-analytic modelling study by Steve Goodacre, Laura Sutton, Kate Ennis, Ben Thomas, Olivia Hawksworth, Khurram Iftikhar, Susan J Croft, Gordon Fuller, Simon Waterhouse, Daniel Hind, Matt Stevenson, Mike J Bradburn, Michael Smyth, Gavin D Perkins, Mark Millins, Andy Rosser, Jon Dickson, Matthew Wilson

“…These strategies provide a range of options that ambulance services and hospitals could use, depending upon capacity to manage prioritised cases and what prioritisation involves. Health economic modelling suggests that sensitive strategies for identifying patients with possible sepsis for prioritisation could be cost-effective, if we are convinced that reducing treatment delay reduces mortality and the emergency care system has the capacity to deliver meaningful prioritisation to substantial numbers of cases. …”
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