Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population - based studies with 4.4 million participants by Gyanchand Rampal, Lekhraj Rampal

“…We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. …”
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A modelling framework for the prediction of the herd-level probability of infection from longitudinal data by Madouasse, Aurélien, Mercat, Mathilde, van Roon, Annika, Graham, David, Guelbenzu, Maria, Santman Berends, Inge, van Schaik, Gerdien, Nielen, Mirjam, Frössling, Jenny, Ågren, Estelle, Humphry, Roger, Eze, Jude, Gunn, George, Henry, Madeleine K., Gethmann, Jörn, More, Simon J., Toft, Nils, Fourichon, Christine

“…From these prior distributions and from the longitudinal data, the model returns posterior probability distributions for being status positive for all herds on the current month. …”
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Comparison of Heart Autonomic Control between Hemodynamically Stable and Unstable Patients during Hemodialysis Sessions: A Bayesian Approach by Natália de Jesus Oliveira, Alinne Alves Oliveira, Silvania Moraes Costa, Uanderson Silva Pirôpo, Mauro Fernandes Teles, Verônica Porto de Freitas, Dieslley Amorim de Souza, Rafael Pereira

“…Regarding Bayesian inference, the spectral parameters demonstrated an anecdotal (65.9%) posterior probability favoring the alternative hypothesis, while MSE exhibited moderate to very strong probability (79.4 to 96.3%) at Scales 3–20, and MSE_1–5, MSE_6–20, and MSE_1–20. …”
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Prognosis of cardiovascular events after implantation of a cardioverterdefibrillator in patients with chronic heart failure: the value of increasing concentration of endothelin-1 a... by A. T. Teplyakov, N. I. Tarasov, L. K. Isakov, E. V. Grakova, M. N. Sinkova, K. V. Kopieva, О. B. Garmaeva, O. N. Ogurkova, V. V. Kalyuzhin, E. V. Kalyuzhina

“…Accuracy of two-class classification (determination of  the posterior probability of cardiovascular events) after identifying such cut-off  point was characterized by 93%  sensitivity and 72% specificity (area under ROC-curve – 0.87).  …”
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Effects of red meat and processed meat intake on prodromal Parkinson's disease in Chinese adults aged 55 and above: A prospective cohort study by Weiyi LI, Siting ZHANG, Hongru JIANG, Liusen WANG, Lixin HAO, Feifei HUANG, Bing ZHANG, Zhihong WANG, Huijun WANG

“…In 2020, the median of the number of risk/prodromal markers was 3, and the median M (P25, P75) of the posterior probability of pPD was 0.74% (0.42%, 1.49%). The multiple linear regression analysis showed that the higher the intake of red meat and processed meat, the higher the risk level of pPD in follow-up (b=0.021, P<0.05). …”
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The use of milk Fourier-transform mid-infrared spectroscopy to diagnose pregnancy and determine spectral regional associations with pregnancy in US dairy cows by Piush Khanal, Robert J. Tempelman

“…Pregnancy status was highly associated with wavenumber windows 1,063 to 1,134 cm−1, 1,201 to 1,257 cm−1, and 1,260 to 1,432 cm−1 based on an estimated BayesC posterior probability of association (PPA) approaching 100% for each of these windows at all pregnancy stages. …”
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Ground motions and source mechanisms of earthquakes in multiscales : microseismicity to macroseismicity by Gu, Chen, Ph. D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

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TESLA Trial: Rationale, Protocol, and Design by Osama O. Zaidat, Sami Al Kasab, Sunil Sheth, Santiago Ortega‐Gutierrez, Ansaar T. Rai, Curtis A. Given, Ramesh Grandhi, Maxim Mokin, Jeffrey M. Katz, Alberto Maud, Rishi Gupta, Wade S. Smith, Diederik W. Dippel, Daryl Gress, Thanh N. Nguyen, Scott Brown, Ashutosh P. Jadhav, Lucas Eljovich, Charles Majoie, Mary S. Patterson, Hannah Slight, Kristine Below, Albert J. Yoo

“…The results will be based on an intention‐to‐treat analysis that will examine the Bayesian posterior probability that, adjusted for Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score, patients with large‐core infarct volume treated with intra‐arterial thrombectomy have higher expected utility‐weighted mRS than those treated with best medical management alone. …”
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Discovery and fine-mapping of adiposity loci using high density imputation of genome-wide association studies in individuals of African ancestry: African Ancestry Anthropometry Gen... by Maggie C Y Ng, Mariaelisa Graff, Yingchang Lu, Anne E Justice, Poorva Mudgal, Ching-Ti Liu, Kristin Young, Lisa R Yanek, Mary F Feitosa, Mary K Wojczynski, Kristin Rand, Jennifer A Brody, Brian E Cade, Latchezar Dimitrov, Qing Duan, Xiuqing Guo, Leslie A Lange, Michael A Nalls, Hayrettin Okut, Salman M Tajuddin, Bamidele O Tayo, Sailaja Vedantam, Jonathan P Bradfield, Guanjie Chen, Wei-Min Chen, Alessandra Chesi, Marguerite R Irvin, Badri Padhukasahasram, Jennifer A Smith, Wei Zheng, Matthew A Allison, Christine B Ambrosone, Elisa V Bandera, Traci M Bartz, Sonja I Berndt, Leslie Bernstein, William J Blot, Erwin P Bottinger, John Carpten, Stephen J Chanock, Yii-Der Ida Chen, David V Conti, Richard S Cooper, Myriam Fornage, Barry I Freedman, Melissa Garcia, Phyllis J Goodman, Yu-Han H Hsu, Jennifer Hu, Chad D Huff, Sue A Ingles, Esther M John, Rick Kittles, Eric Klein, Jin Li, Barbara McKnight, Uma Nayak, Barbara Nemesure, Adesola Ogunniyi, Andrew Olshan, Michael F Press, Rebecca Rohde, Benjamin A Rybicki, Babatunde Salako, Maureen Sanderson, Yaming Shao, David S Siscovick, Janet L Stanford, Victoria L Stevens, Alex Stram, Sara S Strom, Dhananjay Vaidya, John S Witte, Jie Yao, Xiaofeng Zhu, Regina G Ziegler, Alan B Zonderman, Adebowale Adeyemo, Stefan Ambs, Mary Cushman, Jessica D Faul, Hakon Hakonarson, Albert M Levin, Katherine L Nathanson, Erin B Ware, David R Weir, Wei Zhao, Degui Zhi, Bone Mineral Density in Childhood Study (BMDCS) Group, Donna K Arnett, Struan F A Grant, Sharon L R Kardia, Olufunmilayo I Oloapde, D C Rao, Charles N Rotimi, Michele M Sale, L Keoki Williams, Babette S Zemel, Diane M Becker, Ingrid B Borecki, Michele K Evans, Tamara B Harris, Joel N Hirschhorn, Yun Li, Sanjay R Patel, Bruce M Psaty, Jerome I Rotter, James G Wilson, Donald W Bowden, L Adrienne Cupples, Christopher A Haiman, Ruth J F Loos, Kari E North

“…In the trans-ethnic fine mapping of 47 BMI loci and 27 WHRadjBMI loci that were locus-wide significant (P < 0.05 adjusted for effective number of variants per locus) from the African ancestry sex-combined and sex-stratified analyses, 26 BMI loci and 17 WHRadjBMI loci contained ≤ 20 variants in the credible sets that jointly account for 99% posterior probability of driving the associations. The lead variants in 13 of these loci had a high probability of being causal. …”
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Altered Follicular Fluid Metabolic Pattern Correlates with Female Infertility and Outcome Measures of In Vitro Fertilization by Giacomo Lazzarino, Romina Pallisco, Gabriele Bilotta, Ilaria Listorti, Renata Mangione, Miriam Wissam Saab, Giuseppe Caruso, Angela Maria Amorini, Maria Violetta Brundo, Giuseppe Lazzarino, Barbara Tavazzi, Pasquale Bilotta

“…The Biomarker Score values were significantly higher than those of CTRL in each of the six subgroups of IF. Posterior probability curves and ROC curve indicated that values of the Biomarker Score clustered CTRL and IF into two distinct groups, based on the individual FF metabolic profile. …”
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Serial measurement of M. tuberculosis in blood from critically-ill patients with HIV-associated tuberculosis by David A. Barr, Charlotte Schutz, Avuyonke Balfour, Muki Shey, Mireille Kamariza, Carolyn R. Bertozzi, Timothy J. de Wet, Ryan Dinkele, Amy Ward, Kathryn A. Haigh, Jean-Paul Kanyik, Valerie Mizrahi, Mark P. Nicol, Robert J. Wilkinson, David G. Lalloo, Digby F. Warner, Graeme Meintjes, Gerry Davies

“…In a combined pharmacodynamic model, predicted probabilities of negative DMN-Tre microscopy, blood Xpert-ultra, or blood culture after 72 h treatment were 0·64, 0·27, and 0·94, respectively, in those who survived, compared with 0·23, 0·06, and 0·71 in those who died (posterior probability of slower clearance of MTBBSI in those that died >0·99). …”
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Circulatory proteins relate cardiovascular disease to cognitive performance: A mendelian randomisation study by Jian Huang, Jian Huang, Dipender Gill, Verena Zuber, Paul M. Matthews, Paul M. Matthews, Paul Elliott, Paul Elliott, Paul Elliott, Ioanna Tzoulaki, Ioanna Tzoulaki, Abbas Dehghan, Abbas Dehghan, Abbas Dehghan

“…Particularly, brain-specific cis-eQTL predicted MPO, which accounts for protein-coding gene expression in brain tissues, was associated with general cognitive function (βWald = 0.22, PWald = 2.4 × 10−4). The posterior probability for colocalization (PP.H4) of MPO pQTL with the g Factor was 0.577. …”
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Epidemiology and phylodynamics of multiple clades of H5N1 circulating in domestic duck farms in different production systems in Bangladesh by Ariful Islam, Ariful Islam, Mohammad Enayet Hossain, Emama Amin, Shariful Islam, Monjurul Islam, Md Abu Sayeed, Md Mehedi Hasan, Mojnu Miah, Mohammad Mahmudul Hassan, Mohammed Ziaur Rahman, Tahmina Shirin

“…The clade 2.3.2.1a (reassorted) has been evolving silently since 2015 and forming at least nine subgroups based on &gt;90% posterior probability. Notably, clade 2.3.4.4b was introduced in ducks in Bangladesh by the end of the year 2020, which was genetically similar to viruses detected in wild birds in Japan, China, and Africa, indicating migration-associated transmission of an emerging panzootic clade. …”
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A Bayesian reanalysis of the Standard versus Accelerated Initiation of Renal-Replacement Therapy in Acute Kidney Injury (STARRT-AKI) trial by Fernando G. Zampieri, Bruno R. da Costa, Suvi T. Vaara, François Lamontagne, Bram Rochwerg, Alistair D. Nichol, Shay McGuinness, Danny F. McAuley, Marlies Ostermann, Ron Wald, Sean M. Bagshaw, STARRT-AKI Investigators

“…Secondary endpoints (KRT-free days and hospital-free days) were assessed using zero–one inflated beta regression. Results The posterior probability of benefit comparing an accelerated versus a standard KRT initiation strategy for the primary endpoint suggested no important difference, regardless of the prior used (absolute difference of 0.13% [95% credible interval [CrI] − 3.30%; 3.40%], − 0.39% [95% CrI − 3.46%; 3.00%], and 0.64% [95% CrI − 2.53%; 3.88%] for neutral, optimistic, and pessimistic priors, respectively). …”
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Meta-analysis of 18 F-PSMA-1007 PET/CT, 18 F-FDG PET/CT, and 68Ga-PSMA PET/CT in diagnostic efficacy of prostate Cancer by Wenxiao Yu, Ming Zhao, Yingjun Deng, Shengjing Liu, Guanchao Du, Bin Yan, Ziwei Zhao, Ning Sun, Jun Guo

“…Meta-analysis results showed that the pooled sensitivities of 18 F-PSMA-1007 PET/CT, 18 F-FDG PET/CT, and 68Ga-PSMA PET/CT were 0.912 (95%CI: 0.883–0.936), 0.748 (95%CI: 0.698–0.795), and 0.916 (95%CI: 0.896–0.934), respectively; the pooled specification were 0.878 (0.844–0.907), 0.639 (95%CI: 0.589–0.687), and 0.734 (95%CI: 0.685–0.779), respectively; the positive likelihood ratios were 6.335 (95%CI: 4.288–9.357), 2.282 (95%CI: 1.497–3.477), and 3.593 (95%CI: 2.986–4.323), respectively; the negative likelihood ratios were 0.878 (95%CI: 0.844–0.907), 0.374 (95%CI: 0.280–0.499), and 0.110 (95%CI: 0.083–0.144), respectively; the diagnostic odds ratios were 65.125 (95%CI: 34.059–124.53), 7.094 (95%CI: 4.091–12.301), and 29.722 (95%CI: 20.141–43.863), respectively; the positive posterior probability was 64%, 38%, and 62%, respectively; the area under the SPOC curve was 0.95 (95%CI: 0.93–0.97), 0.81 (95%CI: 0.78–0.84), and 0.96 (95%CI: 0.92–0.98), respectively. …”
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Hot, rocky and warm, puffy super-Earths orbiting TOI-402 (HD 15337) by Dumusque, Xavier, Turner, Oliver, Dorn, Caroline, Eastman, Jason D., Allart, Romain, Adibekyan, Vardan, Sousa, Sergio, Santos, Nuno C., Mordasini, Christoph, Bourrier, Vincent, Bouchy, François, Coffinet, Adrien, Davies, Misty D., Díaz, Rodrigo F., Fausnaugh, Michael M., Glidden, Ana, Guerrero, Natalia, Henze, Christopher E., Jenkins, Jon M., Latham, David W., Lovis, Cristophe, Mayor, Michel, Pepe, Francesco, Quintana, Elisa V., Ricker, George R., Rowden, Pamela, Segransan, Damien, Mascareño, Alejandro Suárez, Seager, Sara, Twicken, Joseph D., Udry, Stéphane, Vanderspek, Roland K., Winn, Joshua N.

“…We then derive robust estimates from the HARPS RVs for the orbital parameters of these two planets by modelling stellar activity with a Gaussian process and using the marginalised posterior probability density functions obtained from our analysis of TESS photometry for the orbital period and time of transit. …”
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Community transmission and viral load kinetics of the SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals in the UK: a prospective, longitudinal, cohort... by Singanayagam, A, Hakki, S, Dunning, J, Madon, KJ, Crone, MA, Koycheva, A, Derqui-Fernandez, N, Barnett, JL, Whitfield, MG, Varro, R, Charlett, A, Kundu, R, Fenn, J, Cutajar, J, Quinn, V, Conibear, E, Barclay, W, Freemont, PS, Taylor, GP, Ahmad, S, Zambon, M, Ferguson, NM, Lalvani, A

“…Fully vaccinated individuals with delta variant infection had a faster (posterior probability >0·84) mean rate of viral load decline (0·95 log10 copies per mL per day) than did unvaccinated individuals with pre-alpha (0·69), alpha (0·82), or delta (0·79) variant infections. …”

Worldwide trends in body-mass index, underweight, overweight, and obesity from 1975 to 2016: a pooled analysis of 2416 population-based measurement studies in 128·9 million childre... by NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC), Key, T

“…</p><p> Findings: Regional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (−0·01 kg/m2 per decade; 95% credible interval −0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m2 per decade (0·69–1·35, PP&gt;0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m2 per decade (0·64–1·25, PP&gt;0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. …”

Genome-wide association studies in oesophageal adenocarcinoma and Barrett's oesophagus: a large-scale meta-analysis. by Gharahkhani, P, Fitzgerald, R, Vaughan, T, Palles, C, Gockel, I, Tomlinson, I, Buas, M, May, A, Gerges, C, Anders, M, Becker, J, Kreuser, N, Noder, T, Venerito, M, Veits, L, Schmidt, T, Manner, H, Schmidt, C, Hess, T, Böhmer, A, Izbicki, J, Hölscher, A, Lang, H, Lorenz, D, Schumacher, B, Hackelsberger, A, Mayershofer, R, Pech, O, Vashist, Y, Ott, K, Vieth, M, Weismüller, J, Nöthen, M, Barrett's and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Consortium (BEACON), Esophageal Adenocarcinoma GenEtics Consortium (EAGLE), Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium 2 (WTCCC2), Attwood, S, Barr, H, Chegwidden, L, de Caestecker, J, Harrison, R, Love, S, MacDonald, D, Moayyedi, P, Prenen, H, Watson, R, Iyer, P, Anderson, L, Bernstein, L, Chow, W, Hardie, L, Lagergren, J, Liu, G, Risch, H, Wu, A, Ye, W, Bird, N, Shaheen, N, Gammon, M, Corley, D, Caldas, C, Moebus, S, Knapp, M, Peters, W, Neuhaus, H, Rösch, T, Ell, C, MacGregor, S, Pharoah, P, Whiteman, D, Jankowski, J, Schumacher, J

“…A ninth novel risk locus was identified within the gene LPA (rs12207195; posterior probability 0·925) after reweighting with significantly enriched annotations. …”

Trends and mortality effects of vitamin A deficiency in children in 138 low-income and middle-income countries between 1991 and 2013: a pooled analysis of population-based surveys by Gretchen A Stevens, DSc, James E Bennett, PhD, Quentin Hennocq, MSc, Yuan Lu, DSc, Luz Maria De-Regil, DSc, Lisa Rogers, PhD, Goodarz Danaei, MD, Guangquan Li, PhD, Richard A White, PhD, Seth R Flaxman, BA, Sean-Patrick Oehrle, BA, Mariel M Finucane, PhD, Ramiro Guerrero, MSc, Prof. Zulfiqar A Bhutta, PhD, Amarilis Then-Paulino, MD, Prof. Wafaie Fawzi, MBBS, Prof. Robert E Black, MD, Prof. Majid Ezzati, FMedSci

“…In 2013, the prevalence of deficiency was 29% (17–42; posterior probability [PP] of being a true decline=0·81). …”
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