Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 by Vollset, SE, Ababneh, HS, Abate, YH, Lacey, BWH, GBD 2021 Forecasting Collaborators

“…We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.…”

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 by Bhattacharjee, NV, Schumacher, AE, Aali, A, Almidani, O, Bandyopadhyay, S, Graham, SM, Lacey, BWH, Maude, RJ, Runghien, T, Rodriguez, JAB

“…The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. …”