Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 by Vollset, SE, Ababneh, HS, Abate, YH, Lacey, BWH, GBD 2021 Forecasting Collaborators

“…The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.<h4>Findings</h4>In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). …”

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 by Bhattacharjee, NV, Schumacher, AE, Aali, A, Almidani, O, Bandyopadhyay, S, Graham, SM, Lacey, BWH, Maude, RJ, Runghien, T, Rodriguez, JAB

“…A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. <p><b>Findings</b></p> During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). …”

PostIndependentzia by Calzada, I

“…The Basque Country, it is argued, requires a new kind of political culture based on building bridges and finding agreements between diverse positions. This is characterised as a rationalised dialectic working toward an original contemporary, city-regional and local/global PostIndenpendentist politics. …”